Why Donald Trump’s indictments are likely for 2023

Here’s a New Year’s prediction: Donald Trump will be charged with crimes in 2023.

On the one hand, it is unremarkable to prophesy that a man who faces multiple investigations from federal and state prosecutors for conduct that appears quite illegal will be charged with crimes.

On the other hand, his Trump, whose name has not been synonymous with responsibility.

There are reasons to think that will change.

The federal government’s search and seizure of classified documents at its Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida this summer was a watershed moment.

One could see this prediction as fueled by the recent and dramatic House Historical Committee finale on January 6 and the several criminal dismissals it made for Trump and others.

But unfortunately for Trump, that’s only one piece of the puzzle. On the contrary, the federal government’s search and seizure of classified documents at its Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida last summer appeared to be a watershed moment: an action by federal law enforcement against a former president. who had apparently lived a life of no consequence and could have continued doing this. Even a gradual step toward potential prosecution from the branch of government that can actually bring charges seems more important than legislative branches asserting Trump’s guilt through criminal credentials (both things, of course, can be and are important).

Moreover, the Mar-a-Lago case seems to be simpler than the sordid legal maze of January 6 and its tentacles. As former federal prosecutors said in a November memo analyzing the documents case, published on Just Security, there is a solid basis to indict Trump. With his special detour through the master officially crushed by Trump-appointed judges, he comes no less close to charges related to his apparent mishandling of classified documents and his obstruction.

And it’s just Mar-a-Lago.

To be clear, the idea that the Jan. 6 charges are a legal maze doesn’t mean Trump won’t be charged in that investigation either, which is being overseen by Special Counsel Jack Smith. Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed Smith after Trump announced his 2024 candidacy. (Smith is also overseeing the Justice Department’s investigation into the Mar-a-Lago classified documents scandal.)

Evidence from the Jan. 6 committees shows the potential for insurrection charges against the former president, as well as conspiracy and obstruction related to the attack on the Capitol and American democracy itself. Indeed, the committee noted that the Justice Department may have evidence, let alone resources, that Congress does not. (Worth noting the possibility that the Justice Department may have exculpatory evidence in favor of Trump that is not public, however generous that scenario may seem.)

And those are just some of the charges Trump could face this year.

The former president should also worry about the States. Not that there is a double jeopardy issue with charges brought by federal and state prosecutors alike, oddly enough, for the same crime, as the Supreme Court recently upheld. (Trump may want to dig deeper into double jeopardy, a concept he apparently struggles to grasp, as my MSNBC colleague Steve Benen pointed out.)

And though the investigations are separate, the committee’s explosive findings on Jan. 6 could boost the investigation by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, Georgia. As Jennifer Rubin wrote in the Washington Post in December, the facts laid out by the committee match Georgia’s charges quite well. Citing a Brookings Institution report, she recalled potential avenues for prosecuting Trump in the Peach State: “interference in primaries and elections; intentional interference in the performance of electoral duties; solicitation to commit voter fraud; and conspiracy to commit electoral fraud”.

So with all of this looming, is it really possible that Trump won’t be charged anywhere? Sure.

She also observed that Willis put additional witnesses before the grand jury who did not appear before the Jan. 6 committee, leading to the conclusion that she may well be on her way to an impeachment of Trump in the future. beginning of 2023.

And, of course, it would be a mistake to sleep in New York, where the Trump Organization has already been doomed.

So with all of this looming, is it really possible that Trump won’t be charged anywhere? Sure.

But that seems unlikely at this point. And, in part because of the challenges of charging a potential president with crimes, any prosecutor bringing charges will want to do so by next year. It wouldn’t eliminate the new problems of indicting a 2024 presidential candidate even in 2023, which would lead to an unprecedented series of legal questions, as Trump is wont to do. What seems clear, however, is that the former president is about to have a bad year.

JordanRubin is a blog writer for MSNBC focused on legal analysis. He previously served as a prosecutor for the Manhattan District Attorneys Office and is the author of the forthcoming book Bizarro on the Secret War on Synthetic Drugs. Prior to joining MSNBC, he was a legal reporter for Bloomberg Law.

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