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Donald Trump-Xi Jinping-The West will regret its protectionism

Donald Trump-Xi Jinping-The West will regret its protectionism

 


But what about Ireland versus Brussels? What about Australia versus Capitol Hill? Joe Biden never intended to beg people who cooperated with us. But it is in the nature of protectionism that intentions only matter at the very beginning. It is the logic of escalation that takes over.

One problem with the word neoliberal, besides the undergraduate left ring about it, is that it doesn’t allow for any of these nuances.

It is often said that the United States is in ideological, and not only material, conflict with China. Protectionism is a tacit ideological concession from West to East. What does he concede? That international relations are a zero-sum game. That the State is essential in the life of a country. That prosperity (objectively measurable) is subordinated to security
(which officials can define at will). That the institutions formed in Bretton Woods one human lifetime ago are relics and that nations must make their own arrangements.

Bidens’ embrace of protectionism is hailed as tough, which is a code of aggression when a Democrat is in power. And it must be, given China’s industrial cruelty.

Distrust of China is rational

But taken too far, it is also intellectual self-disarmament. It is possible to win the technical-economic struggle with the autocrats and to lose in the broad sense: by granting their vision of the world, by playing on their territory. The United States won the Cold War, in part, by building a trading empire that hesitant third nations could join for their own benefit. In a protectionist world, what is the equivalent of a carrot?

Distrust of China is rational. But it’s tied to something else: the belief that the liberal decades on either side of the millennium have been a betrayal of the poor in the West.

This slander, recognized as such when it was Donald Trump who peddled it, must be countered on all points. Possibly not, common for an open trading nation to be egalitarian at home. (Trade is an important part of national production in northern European social democracies.)

As Reagan, Thatcher and their heirs eased global trade, none succeeded in undermining the welfare state. In 1980, US government spending on social protection, which includes cash benefits and in-kind services, accounted for 13% of national output. It was a little higher in 1990. It is 19%. 100 now. Nothing in liberal foreign trade implies domestic laissez-faire.

One problem with the word neoliberal, besides the undergraduate left ring about it, is that it doesn’t allow for any of these nuances. To be pro-trade is to be anti-worker, if not anti-patriotic.

You wouldn’t know from the rhetoric of the time that the neoliberal era included the New Labor spending rounds and Medicare expansion under George W. Bush.

I feel the elites (in whom the guilt reflex is strong) never psychologically
recovered from the populist electoral breakthroughs of the past decade.
They feel remorse for the globalism of which they are the authors.

They are tired of the old Ricardian truths: that workers are also consumers and taxpayers, that protectionism can hurt them invisibly. You hear sensible people attribute the crash of 2008 to neoliberalism, but not the long economic boom that preceded it. No, it just fell out of a tree.

It is a profound intellectual conquest of the populists.

And its saddest result is the reversal against the trade. It used to be said that a British prime minister was in office but not in power. Look around you. Trump has achieved the opposite feat.

FinancialTimes

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-west-will-rue-its-protectionism-20230126-p5cfln

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