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[Column] Will Xi’s impatience work?

[Column] Will Xi’s impatience work?

 


Yoon Young-kwan
The author, a former foreign minister, is professor emeritus at Seoul National University.

Power is the engine of international politics, just as money is of the economy. Throughout history, war and peace have also been the consequences of the dynamic interplay between the growth and decline of each country’s power. Many experts predict that US-China relations will be in jeopardy until the end of the 2020s. If so, who will be more dangerous, a more powerful China or a declining China? Many believe that the former will pose a greater challenge to the world than the latter. Really?

The theory goes that if China becomes powerful enough to overtake the United States, tensions will escalate and reach the point of a possible confrontation. But the opponents do not think so. They think that a China at the height of its power and on a downward path from now on is more dangerous. These experts raised the possibility that Chinese President Xi Jinping is rushing to take such an adventurous action as the unification of Taiwan, as he proclaimed as China achieved remarkable economic growth before it was too late. . Such a tendency is commonly found among authoritarian leaders, argue Hal Brands and Michael Beckley, co-authors of the insightful book Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China.

But a relentlessly rising China now faces serious obstacles, internal and external, to its relentless crusade against America. In other words, China’s fundamentals, the very foundation of the Chinese dream that Xi is pushing to achieve, are weakening noticeably.

First, Beijing announced on January 10 a reduction in China’s population in 2022, the first since mass starvation to death during the Great Leap Forward. China’s population is expected to decline by 5-10 million every year for quite a long time, while its elderly population grows at this rate. This means that China is becoming a country of old people before it becomes rich. To maintain the status quo, China needs a birth rate of 2.1, but the figure is 1.18 today (Korea’s figure is a pitiful 0.81). Despite Beijing lifting the birth limit of three children per couple and generous subsidies, the Chinese do not want to have children. A reduction in population inevitably reduces China’s economic growth. To compensate for the loss of population, the training of the workforce and the innovation of the industry are necessary. But if the government invests in improving the system, it must reduce spending on military reinforcements for further expansion overseas.

Second, the Chinese economy has entered a phase of weak growth. This year’s growth rate will be higher than last year’s 3%, but 5-6% growth can hardly be expected from now on due to China’s serious structural problems. After declining exports following the 2008 global financial crisis, China’s central and local governments invested heavily in infrastructure development by issuing debt and creating jobs. But due to the debt snowball effect, China’s debt-to-GDP ratio soared to 286% in 2021 from 140% in 2008. Overinvestment at the time led to relentless defaults from developers real estate. Vacant apartments in China could accommodate the entire French population.

Third, the international environments facing China are arguably the worst. As a number of foreign companies increasingly flee China, this is causing an unprecedented flight of capital. On top of that, the US is encircling China with its allies as evidenced by the Aukus, QUAD, IPEF, Chip 4, and Indo-Pacific and NATO reinforcement. The United States continues to pressure China by taking advantage of its multilevel alliances. Such an uphill battle for China will certainly contribute to delaying China’s development in advanced semiconductors, for example to compete with the United States for a while.

During his first and second terms, President Xi reversed Deng Xiaoping’s three major strategies for opening up and reforming China. First, Xi concentrated power on himself after rejecting the collective leadership supported by Deng to avoid apocalyptic chaos under Mao. Second, Xi abandoned Deng’s advice to come to terms with the United States and embarked on the path of confrontation. Third, Xi suppressed market activities through the Communist Party and its ideology instead of upholding market principles, the core of Deng’s opening up and reform.

But unfortunately, China’s current challenges can only be met when Xi returns to Deng’s strategy. In other words, only when certain checks and balances work in the government’s policy-making process will China not make critical mistakes such as its zero-Covid policy or the invasion of COVID-19. Ukraine by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Only when Xi chooses to reinvigorate the private sector by minimizing state intervention and Communist Party ideology will China regain its economic vitality. At the same time, Xi must fundamentally improve China’s relationship with the United States. Only then can China emerge from the US lockdown and foreign companies will also return.

Over the past three months, the Chinese government has slightly changed the tone of its policy. Beijing abruptly ditched its strict zero Covid policy and finally showed its boss’ smiling face at a summit with the United States after a long time. But what China needs now is not such a tactical response, but a fundamental shift in strategy.

Xi rushed too quickly into a stalemate with Uncle Sam. Could he return to the path he had previously abandoned? Or would he stick to a declining path as an underdog? This is the biggest question for the rest of the world in the 2020s.

Translation by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.

Sources

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2/ https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/02/05/opinion/columns/China-Xi-Jinping-population/20230205195608295.html

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