Biden bullies China. But it won’t work

There is no doubt that the circumstances surrounding the balloon affair between the United States and China are shady. Burlesque does not belong in China’s diplomatic toolbox. China has never used balls to intimidate opponents.

Unsurprisingly, expert opinion largely tends to follow the Chinese claim, implying that Beijing did not need to resort to such old-fashioned and difficult-to-control means, such as a gas-filled balloon hoisted to 60,000 feet. above the ground propelled by the winds. to monitor Americas super-secret nuclear weapons sites when it has the same sophisticated means Americans would have to spy on other countries through satellites. Sounds like a believable justification, doesn’t it?

The big question is whether the balloon affair may be the work of Vayu, the Hindu god of the winds, who in Indian mythology is also said to sometimes act as the divine messenger of the gods.

Seriously, Beijing insists that a Chinese company’s weather test balloon with limited self-steering capability veered far from its intended course and was blown by winds across North America. at the beginning of last week.

From the details available, the Pentagon was still tracking this wayward balloon and, in fact, President Joe Biden was kept informed, who promptly ordered it to be shot down, but inexplicably nothing was done for decades. days until Saturday, when he was moving away. the east coast of the United States heading for the vast Atlantic Ocean, he was shot down in a fire of media publicity.

Yet a day earlier on Friday, the White House had abruptly announced the postponement of a major two-day visit to Beijing by Secretary of State Antony Blinken (during which he was to meet President Xi Jinping).

Biden took these extreme measures despite China’s plea that it was a completely unexpected situation caused byforce majeureand the facts are very clear and Beijing, in fact, has even expressed regret (which amounts to aamendsas the French would say.)

Moreover, there was even a conversation on Friday between Blinken and Wang Yi, director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Communist Party of China Central Committee.Beijing Readingnoted that the two senior officials communicated with each other on how to handle a fortuitous event in a calm and professional manner.

The first press releases from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (hereAndhere) were in an obviously conciliatory spirit. But Blinken opted for grandstanding and took ahard posturecalling it an irresponsible act and a gross violation of US sovereignty and international law that undermined the purpose of his upcoming trip to Beijing.

According to aXinhuanews agency reportthe Chinese Foreign Ministry has since expressed its strong dissatisfaction with and opposition to the use of force by the United States to attack the Chinese civilian unmanned airship and pointed out that the Chinese side has clearly requested the American side to handle the matter properly in a calm, professional and restrained manner.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry added, “Under such circumstances, the use of force by the United States is an overreaction and a serious violation of international practice. China will resolutely safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of the relevant enterprise, and reserve the right to provide further responses if necessary.

All in all, to borrow the biblical metaphor, the cloud as small as a man’s hand rising from the sea turned out to be a torrent on the way. This is where the real danger lies. The Biden administration is already over-militarizing US-China relations, as Harlan Ullman, a renowned author and senior adviser to the Atlantic Council, recently thoughtfully pointed out.(Is the United States over-militarizing its China strategy?)

The Biden administration believes it has reaped a valuable asset by putting China on the wrong foot and heightening tensions. In the parlance of the game, Biden saw himself as an advantage player who can choose to do nothing or play chip and run.

The ball deal is not without the potential to be inflated to spark a showdown with China, but Biden might prefer to use it to intimidate Beijing and create the backdrop for the imminent landing of theNATO in the Asia-Pacific region.

During the alliance secretary general’s first-ever Asian tour, Jens Stoltenberg sharply criticized China on Tuesday, from Tokyo, for bullying its neighbors and threatening Taiwan and warning that transatlantic and Indo-Pacific security are deeply interconnected.

Likewise, it simply cannot be a coincidence if, out of the blue, thethe wall street journalin an exclusive reportSunday, apparently unrelated to the balloon affair, alleged that China was supplying the technology Moscow’s military needed to continue the Kremlins’ war in Ukraine despite an international cordon of sanctions and export controls.

The report claims that available customs data shows that Chinese state-owned defense companies are shipping navigational equipment, jamming technology and fighter jet parts to sanctioned Russian government-owned defense companies.

The Journal based its report entirely on customs data provided byC4ADSa Washington-based companynon-profit organization specializing in identifying threats to national securitywhich of course stands out as a US intelligence proxy.

Rivals and partners

Simply put, Beijing is under threat from all sides that Biden would now have the nuclear option to rally the whole of the collective West and start piling on sanctions against China even if Xi Jinping retains strategic restraint not to invade Taiwan. .

Aeditorial today inChina Dailythe official journal, on Stoltenberg’s Asian trip, notes that his thesis on transatlantic and Indo-Pacific security being Siamese twins and the proposition that Russia and China form an evil axis threatening the rules-based international order is something that strategists in Washington are trying to peddle around the world.

To top it off, Stoltenberg’s visit, the balloon affair and subsequent media buildup, and, most importantly, Blinken’s trip to China (where he was to meet President Xi Jinping in what was presented by the Biden administration as an effort to build a floor for the relationship) all of this also coincides with an important round of consultations in Moscow on Friday byMa Zhaoxuwho was recently promoted to a full ministerial post to oversee the day-to-day affairs of the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

THEReading of the Ministry of Foreign Affairsin Moscow (in Russian) on Mas’ consultations in Moscow, said the two sides had carefully considered their bilateral cooperation in the UN field. Ma is a former UN envoy and went on to say that he and his Russian counterpart, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin, have paid close attention to persistent attempts by representatives of some countries to undermine the authority of the UN by using its platform to pressure sovereign states, as well as to create alternative and inclusive mechanisms outside the framework of the Organization in accordance with the concept of a rules-based organization global order .

Another meeting of Ambassador Ma with Russian DFM Andrey Rudenko spoke highly of Sino-Russian relations, confirmed mutual commitment to their gradual development, and discussed prospects for expanding bilateral relations in 2023. (here)

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also received Ma Zhaoxu. In particular, theRussian Foreign Ministry press releasestressed that they noted their rejection of confrontational policies, as well as the attempts of some countries to interfere in the internal affairs of other states or to hamper their development by imposing sanctions and other illegitimate methods. The officials reaffirmed their intention to reliably uphold the sovereignty, security and development interests of the two countries, and jointly build a more just and democratic multipolar world order.

Clearly, the Biden administration realized that one of the main goals of Blinkens’ trip to Beijing, to weaken the Sino-Russian axis, was going to be a failure. Sustained US efforts to use the Ukraine conflict as a tool to sabotage Sino-Russian relations have failed spectacularly. Economic and military ties between Beijing and Moscow are only getting stronger. President Xi Jinping’s planned visit to Russia in the spring heralds the steady upward trajectory of the Boundless Partnership.

Lavrov captured the verve of the Russian-Chinese partnership when hesaid in a television interviewFriday that although we are not creating a military alliance, our relations are of a higher quality than that of military alliances in their classic sense, and they have no bounds or limits. And there are no taboo subjects either. They are indeed the best in the history of the Soviet Union and the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation.

In reality, Russia and China act optimally according to their national interests. Thus, Russia sees the United States as an enemy that seeks (madly) its destruction and dismemberment, while the United States, for China, is only a rival and a potential adversary. A Moscow expert, Dmitry Trenin, captured the subtle nuances recently when he wrote,

This is not enough to form a military alliance between Moscow and Beijing. China naturally values ​​its economic interests in US and European markets, and Beijing can only change its mind in favor of a military alliance if Washington becomes its enemy. For Russia’s sake alone, China is unwilling to take this step.

The ball affair can be considered a decisive moment. He exposes that while China approached Blinkens’ visit in good faith with the aim of finding constructive ways forward, Washington did not see things the same way. That said, Beijing had no illusions either. A music video from CGTN on Friday was titledBlinkens’ visit to China: frank conversation or political tactic?

MK Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat. He served as Indian Ambassador to Uzbekistan and Turkey. Opinions are personal.