Kazakhstan juggles between East and West

Europe and the United States should not confuse the country’s maneuvers with a pivot to the West.

When President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced the Astana International Forum in February, he said it was an opportunity for global cooperation and progress in a polarized world. Kazakhstan continues its longstanding role as a bridge between East and West, he wrote, a policy that has served us well.

The forum, scheduled for June 8-9, will bring together mid-tier powers, such as Turkey and Singapore, for discussions and panels on pressing challenges including climate change, energy, food supply and global security. What is the role of small nations when major world powers clash? This is a crucial question for a country so vast that it occupies land near the Volga in Russia to China, and yet has only 20 million inhabitants. Its geographical position makes it important for large neighbours, as does its oil and gas resources, which are enormous and have multiplied the GDP sixfold over the past two decades.

The rally comes amid recent civil unrest in Kazakhstan just over a year after at least 238 people were killed as Tokayev, with Kremlin backing, crushed an uprising. Russia’s continued war in Ukraine has now reduced its influence even as the Kazakh president tackles domestic economic reform and energy security.

Tokayev, anxious to maintain his strategic and multilateral approach to the major border powers, seized the opportunity to position his country as a leader in Central Asia. While his goals for the forum are expressed as optimism for cooperation between the middle powers, there is no doubt that he sees a chance to promote his country, himself and his freedom to maneuver.

Mukhtar Tileuberdi, Foreign Minister of Kazakhstan, highlighted in January that his plans for the year included a greater role in global and regional politics and made it clear that Tokayev’s government would adapt to current realities without deviating from a proactive, pragmatic and balanced foreign policy.

Balanced does not mean pro-Western and indeed that would be impossible. The reality is that while relations with the West can help the government, they can never replace the scale and sometimes the threat of the great powers on either side. Two days after Kazakhstan pledged in July to increase oil exports to the EU and Russia close an important export pipeline. So, although the bloc provides 60% of foreign direct investment, its hard power is almost non-existent.

This explains why Kazakh politics sometimes seems to have at least two audiences. The country has made anti-war statements and responded to Western criticism of widespread sanctions-to breakwhile also being accused of turning a blind eye to sanctions violations (which he denies) and benefiting from vastly increased trade with Russia 25% last year, including 22 times increase in electronic exports.

Even before the May 18-19 Xian summit between China and Central Asian leaders, it was increasingly clear that China was the preeminent power in the region.

Kazakh foreign policy quite reasonably seeks a balance of power to avoid domination by any one country and to take more control of its own destiny. Economic Reforms, Domestic Growth and Becoming a listening state are crucial to Tokayev’s 10-year plan.

Despite geographical realities, the West can still hope to be part of Tokayev’s balancing act and reap some rewards. Kazakh prosperity rests on trade and investment of foreign partners; largest investor countries are the Netherlands and the United States.

Japan And Singapore have already expressed their interest in strengthening the partnership, in particular on co-production and energy-saving technologies.

China is one of the top five foreign investors, but its ambitions are bigger than that. Kazakhstan has been designated as the loop of the Belt and Road Initiative, and although this system has suffered some setbacks in Europe, it is still very relevant for Central Asian countries offering natural resources and a route to markets. Kazakh-Chinese trade is booming, increasing by more than a third to $24 billion last year.

According to an expert on China-Central Asian relations, Niva Yau, Tokayev’s main objective is to ensure the longevity of his functions and his support as president; this is done through the balance of strategic relations with the two partners in Europe and China.

Yau noted that the two relationships carry different weights, which makes them essential in different ways for Tokayev’s foreign policy. China appears as a simple economic and commercial ally while the West appears as a disconnected investor which thus offers a potential political safety net.

President Tokayev will have to work hard to keep everyone happy and maintain his country’s freedom of movement. As the 2022 Kazakh protests and the war in Ukraine have shown, maintaining stability can be a juggling act requiring advanced skill levels.

Reese Phillips is a Program Assistant for Operations at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). Prior to joining CEPA, Reese worked with the Global Language Network as a classroom volunteer and operations intern. He graduated from American University in December 2021 with a BA in International Studies and a minor in Russian Language and Area Studies.

Europes Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the role of foreign policy in Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or of the Center for European Policy Analysis.