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America can’t compete with Russia and China for the entire Global South

America can’t compete with Russia and China for the entire Global South

 


As Joe Biden concluded his attendance at the Group of 7, or G7, meeting in Hiroshima, in which his administration orchestrated opposition groups to China, Xi Jinping unveiled a plan of its own accord in a counter-diplomatic move. After a China-Central Asia summit in northwest China last week, Xi announced his intention to boost Central Asia’s development by increasing trade, building infrastructure and helping boost its development capabilities. defense production and law enforcement. This indicates a greatly increased Chinese role in Central Asia.

China’s new initiative in the region is likely to instinctively provoke hostility in Washington, but that would be a mistake. The United States need not and cannot afford to seek primacy everywhere; and for purely geographical reasons, Central Asia will always be a region where American influence will be less than that of China and Russia. By engaging in great power competition there, Washington would only be diverting US attention and resources from more important regions. In the worst case, it would contribute to regional instability and even conflict.

China’s move comes at a time when US influence in Central Asia is waning after its withdrawal from Afghanistan, as well as Russia’s as Russia wages its war in Ukraine. Central Asia has always been part of Moscow’s traditional sphere of influence, but over the past decade the region has seen an exponential increase in economic cooperation with Beijing. Last year, trade between China and Central Asia reached a record high of $70 billion, with Kazakhstan leading with $31 billion.

Because Russia and China share something similar to a great power agreement in Central Asia, where Russia is the main security partner and China the main economic power, neither fights for influence. Both, however, fear that of the United States, and would unite (successfully) strongly to resist it. Furthermore, both fear the spread of Islamist extremism and ethnic nationalism, which could increase problems with their own Muslim minorities, which, it must be emphasized, would also threaten American interests. The absence of major terrorist attacks against the United States in recent years does not mean that this threat has disappeared.

Generous package from China to Central Asia from 26 billion yuan ($3.8 billion) of financial aid and subsidies contrasts embarrassingly with the pitiful $50 million offered to the region by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken during his trip there earlier this year, a difference that nonetheless accurately reflects the region’s relative importance to China and the United States. While the G7 issued a statement Condemning China’s belligerence in the South China Seas and its human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Tibet, Central Asian governments seem to welcome a bigger role for China.

China expressed last Saturday strong dissatisfaction with the communiqué issued by the G7 leaders. China’s foreign ministry responded with protests and said the G7 approach has no international credibilityand that the G7 was waging a smear campaign against China. China has also expressed issues with the bloc not showing clear opposition to Taiwan independence. insisted that the bloc was instead responsible for hinder world peace and hinder the development of other countries.

The response from the G7 and China demonstrates all too clearly that the confrontation between the West on the one hand and China and Russia on the other is intensifying and spreading across the world, both sides competing for influence in the countries of the South. As global reactions to the war in Ukraine demonstrate, Russia and China have been succeeded to make the Global South see the West as an entity that exploits non-Western states for selfish reasons, and some Western policies regarding third-party sanctions violations only add fuel to the fire.

G7 leaders adopt new penalties on Russia aimed at reducing Moscow’s ability to circumvent sanctions through third-party deals with southern states. Yet seeking to punish non-Western states for trading with Russia will only exacerbate already existing resentment against Russia. Global South about an overly big America and what countries may perceive as a violation of their right to sovereign decision-making.

At the G7 meeting, questions about economic dependence on Russia and China were also raised among the group of industrialized nations with their guests Brazil, India, Indonesia and Vietnam. While the diplomatic push for less reliance on Russia and China is understandable to US geopolitical aspirations, it would be naive to assume that countries in the South would sacrifice any significant source of revenue to their country in the name of of American power. In fact, America would likely lose influence if it pressed countries to act in a way that ran counter to their own national interests.

In a similar effort to influence the countries of the South, during the G7 summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Indonesian President Joko Widodo to make pressure on their respective nations. to take part in the war in Ukraine. As traditionally non-aligned countries from the Cold War era and with colonial histories that make them deeply skeptical of the West, these nations are unlikely to succumb to growing pressure to openly support Ukraine. The West should understand this before pushing them further.

In this respect, Central Asia is a region where the United States should not attempt to compete for primacy. Russia and China have far more economic, political and military investments than the United States in this region and always will. If Washington starts to compete with them in Central Asia, it will only turn the region into a zero-sum game between great powers where the United States would probably not gain more influence than Russia and China because of their proximity. geographical. Spending precious resources just to create constant competition that Washington will inevitably lose is a very bad investment especially since, following its withdrawal from Afghanistan, the United States has no vital or even significant interest in this region. Such competition would also jeopardize the stability of the region. So far, Central Asian countries have comfortably pursued a multi-vector foreign policy toward China, Russia, and the United States, with America comfortably in third place. This policy allowed them to develop economically without encouraging competition from the great powers in their region.

China’s plan for Central Asia risks setting the stage for a new area of ​​great-power competition in the Global South. The United States should refrain from taking the bait, so to speak, and should apply similar pragmatism and restraint to other nations of the world who have chosen not to be aligned in this renewed global struggle. If Washington tries to pressure them into allying with America, it could actually end up pushing them into the arms of China and Russia.

Suzanne Loftus is a research fellow in the Eurasia program at the Quincy Institutes. She specializes in Russian foreign and domestic policy, nationalism and identity, and strategic competition between great powers.

Image: Shutterstock.

Sources

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2/ https://nationalinterest.org/feature/america-cannot-compete-russia-and-china-entirety-global-south-206522

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