Complex security threats require modern thinking and action: experts

Photo shows a Chinese J-16 fighter jet flying over the South China Sea on May 26, 2023. A US RC-135 spy plane intruded on the PLA Navy Shandong aircraft carrier group training area at sea of Southern China on May 26, 2023, and PLA Southern Theater Command has organized air forces to professionally monitor, track and manage the situation in accordance with law and regulation. Inset: Photo illustrating the flight paths of the US RC-135 electronic reconnaissance aircraft. Photo: CGV

As China reiterated its security concepts and initiatives at the 20th Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on the “unprecedented” security challenges facing Asia-Pacific, Chinese international relations and security experts national security said on Sunday that China’s national security now faces more comprehensive and complex issues. complex threats not only in traditional fields such as geopolitics, but also in those such as finance and high-tech sectors, so the country must form modernized thinking and countermeasures to deal with the new situation. The main threat at present has been caused by the new Cold War launched by the United States against China despite Washington’s refusal to admit it, analysts noted.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, at the first meeting of the National Security Commission under the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) last week, called for accelerated efforts to modernize the national security system and capacity of the Chinese Communist Party. country.

The national security issues facing China today are “considerably more complex and much more difficult to resolve”, the meeting said. He stressed the need to be prepared for worst case scenarios and extreme cases and to be prepared to withstand “high winds, choppy waters and even dangerous storms”.

On Sunday, Chinese State Councilor and Defense Minister Li Shangfu delivered a much-anticipated speech at the Shangri-La dialogue in Singapore. “People can only ask themselves these questions: Who is disturbing the peace in the region? What are the root causes of chaos and instability? And what do we need to remain vigilant and protect against?” Li said.

These questions must be answered in the interests of Asia-Pacific security, stability and future, Li said. Noting that “a certain country” has instigated “color revolutions “and proxy wars in different regions, created chaos and turbulence and just walked away leaving behind a mess,” Li added that such things should never happen in the Asia-Pacific region. .

Experts said China’s national security concerns are in line with shared concerns of ASEAN and other countries in the region that hope for peace and stability.

Extreme scenario

Jin Canrong, associate dean of the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China, told the Global Times on Sunday that “the worst-case scenarios” mentioned during the National Security Commission meeting refer to ” challenges such as a massive geopolitical crisis or another global financial crisis”, but “extreme scenarios”, to be clear, “means the danger of war”.

China still maintains high alert for threats to its national security, but if there is anything that could cause ‘dangerous storms’ or danger of war, it would definitely be the Taiwan issue, Jin said. . “The increasing provocations of the United States and the risky acts of Taiwanese secessionists could pose an imminent threat that could provoke a war in the region,” noted Jin.

Li Wei, a national security expert at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, echoed that view, saying there are challenges arising from both international and regional issues, terrorism and those brought by unilateralism and trade protectionism. “A mindset of dealing with worst-case scenarios and extreme cases should be applied in handling cases related to the South China Sea and the Taiwan issue,” the expert said.

In 2024, the United States will hold its presidential elections, and the island of Taiwan will also hold regional elections, and one possibility for an “extreme scenario” is that Donald Trump, if re-elected as president, withdraws the US resources from Russia-Ukraine. conflict and maximizing the manipulation of the Taiwan issue to provoke and contain China, and Lai Ching-te, a radical secessionist politician on the island, winning the election because these radical and unpredictable forces might recklessly cross the bottom line and force China to resolve the Taiwan issue once and for all, Jin said.

China has exercised restraint in its response to the new cold war launched by the United States, and Washington is the party causing major uncertainties and impacts, so even though China is fully preparing and doing its best to deter and prevent “worst-case or extreme-case scenarios”, the extent of the danger of war in the region in the near future is still unclear, analysts said.

Enabling environment

The first meeting of the National Security Commission under the 20th CPC Central Committee last week called for initiatives to “shape a favorable external security environment for China to better protect its opening-up and push for greater openness.” deep integration of development and security”.

“Believe it or not, after the Biden administration released its latest national security strategy in October 2022, a new Cold War against China was launched,” Jin said.

The United States has clearly identified China as its “only competitor” and Washington is mobilizing different political forces and business groups in the country as well as its allies around the world to join this new cold war, but the mobilization has not not been very successful. More importantly, the United States also wants to avoid a hot direct war when launching its global containment against China, and that is why its senior officials are desperate to communicate with China but without sincerity in reducing its hostilities. , noted Jin. “All this proves that a new cold war has already been launched by the United States.

Thus, the key to avoiding worst-case scenarios and extreme cases is to work with all peace-loving parties, including US business elites and Western countries, to create an enabling environment that not only benefits China, but provides also certainty and stability for all who yearn for peace, development and recovery, experts said.

Recent high profile trips to China made and to be made by top US business executives such as Tesla’s Elon Musk, JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang have grabbed headlines around the world as they seek to grow their business in the largest and most dynamic market in the world due to its high certainty and stability.

Executives from a few major British companies, including Jardine Matheson Holdings executive chairman Ben Keswick, have also met with senior Chinese officials recently, even as some Western officials, including those from the United States and some of its allies, call to “decoupling” or “risk reduction” in their trade relations with China.

Jin said building friendships and mutual trust, providing opportunities and benefits, and building a community of shared future with others are some of the most effective measures taken to prevent “worst-case scenarios and extreme cases.” “.

After unilaterally launching a new Cold War against China, the United States has failed to mobilize its own big business and business elites in different sectors, and has also failed to mobilize its key allies such as major EU members, including France and Germany. This means that the New Cold War exerts limited damage on the global economy and also makes the damage caused by US hegemony and unilateralism more manageable in terms of finance, economy, as well as supply chains and industries, experts noted.

The National Security Commission meeting also called for sustained efforts to safeguard political security and improve security governance of “internet data and artificial intelligence (AI)”. He also called for accelerated efforts to establish a risk monitoring and early warning system.

Shen Yi, a professor of cybersecurity and international relations at Fudan University, told the Global Times that China will adopt and make the best use of these cutting-edge technologies, to better unleash productive forces and better serve its governance and national security. .