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The future of UK-EU security cooperation in the shadow of Ukraine

The future of UK-EU security cooperation in the shadow of Ukraine

 


After a long period of disengagement and distrust, the UK appears to be re-engaging with its EU counterparts on security cooperation. But where could this lead? Benjamin Martil charts the fate of the post-Brexit security deal from the day after the referendum to the fallout from the invasion of Ukraine.

This article is part of our series on policymaking in the UK after Brexit. For more analysis, visit the focus page.

It has often been argued that negotiating a security partnership with the EU would be the easiest part of the Brexit negotiations. Yet in 2016-17, observers could not imagine the twists and turns the Brexit process would take, or the way factional politics would intervene to hijack the idea of ​​a deal.

Many also could not have foreseen the shock invasion of Ukraine by Russian President Vladimir Putin in February 2022 and the gradual re-engagement between the UK and the EU that would occur in some areas of foreign policy and safety afterwards.

Continuity under Theresa May?

The May governments’ approach to Brexit represents something of a contradiction. On the one hand, Cameron’s successor committed to red lines early on that would lock in the UK during negotiations and prevent anything but a free trade deal later. And this in a context of fierce negotiations and Eurosceptic discourse no doubt influenced by the weak position of the Prime Ministers vis-à-vis the combined EU27.

On the other hand, May sought far greater continuity in pre-existing areas of cooperation than would his successor, so the UK was often accused by EU negotiators of seeking to select access to the EU from outside. As Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel REMARK: Before they were with a lot of opt-outs, now they are out and want a lot of opt-ins.

Security was one area in particular where May was keen to establish continuity, even though the UK had bilateral and NATO relations with many EU member states to fall back on. Mays’ desire for a security deal evident in his speeches in Florence in September 2017 and in Munich in February 2018 stemmed from a personal concern for security, a desire to make up for lost ties, and a belief that the value UK here could help establish a positive climate. tone in the negotiations.

Framework proposals for a security agreement have been unveiled in May 2018. London offered structured cooperation with regularized meetings at different levels, the United Kingdom’s participation in projects for new post-Brexit European initiatives (including FISHING and the European Defense Fund), participation in certain Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) missions and institutional arrangements allowing the UK to contribute to decision-making where it needed to be involved.

The political declaration annexed to May’s agreement indicated the will of the two parties to negotiate a security and defense agreement.

The proposals came weeks before the Checkers Summit at which the Prime Minister unveiled proposals for the future relationship that would precipitate a split within the factional Tory party and ultimately doom his deal. The idea of ​​a security partnership was unpopular among pro-Brexit Tories who feared subsumption under a European army as some aspects of the proposals were coldly received in Brussels. Nevertheless, the political declaration annexed to May’s agreement indicated the will of the two parties to negotiate a security and defense agreement.

Boris Johnson and No Deal

Mays’s rejection of the deal in early 2019 on three separate occasions paved the way for Mays’ resignation that summer and his eventual replacement by Boris Johnson, who, despite any personal hesitation over Brexit issues, s was, at this point, imposed as the dean of pro-Brexit Tories. Johnson’s infamous renegotiation of the Mays deal in late 2019, which established the problematic protocol arrangements for Northern Ireland, also changed the language of the political declaration, but did not remove the proposals. okay security.

Yet in February 2020, as negotiations on the trade and cooperation agreement began, the Johnson government informed the team of chief EU negotiator Michel Barniers that the UK would not seek to negotiate a security agreement. Given the UK’s strategic weight as an international player, the decision disappointed many members of the Commission, while being somewhat surprising, as it deviated from the commitments set out in Johnson’s own renegotiated political declaration. .

The reason for the UK’s decision lies at the confluence of domestic politics and the nature of the European security architecture. Johnson had promised greater autonomy from the EU in his Brexit deal, and security and defense was one area where a no-deal outcome could be achieved in the cheapest way, given the UK capabilities and the existence of alternative forums for security cooperation. A more distant security relationship could therefore offset the need for an agreement that would maintain the commercial relationship.

The result of Johnsons decision was that when the UK exited the transition period on January 1, 2021, there was no formalized relationship between the UK and the EU on foreign and security policy. , leaving the UK to look for other ways to find out what the thought was. among the EU27. Moreover, while individuals on both sides had their existing contacts, there was no political desire on either side for these unofficial contacts, restricting even informal networks that might have contributed to information sharing.

The invasion of Ukraine

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 represented a seismic shock to the European security order, resulting in unprecedented solidarity within and between European states, sparking strong support for Ukraine in all domains and leading to significant changes in the security posture of key players. These included the German turning a commitment to spend more on defense the NATO candidacies of Sweden and Finland, and Denmark vote for scrap its opt-out from the defense aspects of European integration.

The British response was hailed across the continent for its strength and effectiveness, with British military contributions to Kyiv being the highest among European countries. Britain has trained tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers, strengthened its forward presence in NATO border countries, signed new security agreements with, among others, Finland and Sweden, and intensified cooperation with its Nordic and Baltic partners.

The solidarity engendered by the war, coupled with the realization on both sides that the UK and the EU are major players, has rekindled security cooperation between the UK and the EU.

Yet, while NATO remains the main forum through which strategic discussions take place, the EU has become an important actor in the conflict, coordinating aid and arms donations, accelerating Ukraine’s candidacy for EU membership, triggering successive rounds of sanctions against those close to Putin’s regime, and providing a forum through the strategic compass exercise to agree on a shared threat assessment among member states.

The solidarity engendered by the war, coupled with the realization on both sides that the UK and the EU are major players, has rekindled security cooperation between the UK and the EU. And although the process has been gradual, the two sides are now cooperating in a host of areas, with coordination on sanctions, UK membership of the Military Mobility PESCO project, a UK presence in the military compensation cell of EU, high-level calls and meetings, and coordination between UK and EU military training missions.

Johnson’s departure from office in September 2022 and the negotiation of the Windsor framework in early 2023 by Rishi Sunak have both helped to build trust and accelerate discussion on further cooperation. But the relationship remains unstructured. While the work recently proposed a formal security deal if they come to power, the incumbent Conservative government resists formalizing it, fearing that anything resembling a tangled alliance will upend the party’s right wing.

Still, much is possible informally at the moment, given the low-hanging fruits on offer as Britain emerges from the no-deal lockdown. And with a political consensus on improving security cooperation, the prospects for rebuilding the relationship look good.


This post builds on the findings of the recent research paper Symptoms of withdrawal: partisan factions, political change and British foreign policy after Brexit (Journal of European Public Policy, 2023)

All articles published on this blog give the point of view of the author or authors, and not the position of the LSE British Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Photo credit: Number 10,Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.0 Generic CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

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