Specific emergency plans for urgent COVID-19 – Notice

As we have seen in China, Italy, South Korea and Iran, the risk associated with the new coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) is systemic, requiring a comprehensive emergency plan. Contingency plans in countries like the UK generally have three main phases: contain, delay and mitigate.

On Sunday, after President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo encouraged "social distancing", public transportation and the streets were still crowded on Monday. Presumably, this is because at best, people are not encouraged, not ordained, to distance themselves. However, even if forced to uphold the law, religious, cultural and community gatherings would still be difficult to manage.

A burial in Italy would have become a vector of transmission, causing four infections. Another burial in Spain would have caused 60 infections, causing the closure of an entire neighborhood. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte issued a decree last week suspending civil and religious ceremonies, including funerals, as confirmed infections reached more than 9,170 cases.

In Indonesia, Ministry of Health guidelines on preparation for COVID-19 require that the deceased be wrapped in plastic and placed in a coffin, but there is no mention of a funeral. As the risk is high, funerals involving large numbers of people should be prohibited and left to authorized parties.

Because of such sensitivities, debates on the implications of religious and community gatherings – especially in anticipation of the Ramadan fasting month in April and the ensuing Idul Fitri celebrations accompanied by a wave of reunions and vacations – should start, preferably, not with the government but with the main Islamic organizations.

The economic consequences of social distancing measures can also be enormous. Certain types of jobs that depend on the crowd would be immediately affected. Still, some types of businesses, like delivery, would likely thrive. The government must guarantee protocols for these services, for example, by requiring companies to equip drivers with personal protective equipment, by prohibiting the use of paper money (because credit card transactions paper money are usually done face to face) and dropping off packages with as little human contact. as possible.

When pressure on public services increases, policies should move to the "mitigation" phase. Health services will be affected first, but the crisis could then spread to other public services.

We may have a lot to learn from the crisis in China, Iran and northern Italy. A recent journal article by medical professional Wang Dawei found that in Wuhan, China, 26% of patients received intensive care. In Italy, a number of emergency rooms are said to have "collapsed" and the ventilators "have become like gold".

According to 2018 data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Indonesia has the second lowest number of hospital beds per 1,000 population. As such, the emergency plan should include the creation of temporary hospitals. As in a number of countries where the infection is prevalent, the government may, for example, request hotels to serve as temporary hospitals.

Read also: Jokowi finally takes COVID-19 seriously. But his leadership leaves much to be desired

In the UK, essential resources can be allocated to those who are likely to survive rather than the most vulnerable individuals under its 2007 ethical framework. Such a utilitarian framework should also be implemented here, but the policy, which is likely to be controversial, needs to be clarified beforehand.

Utilities such as water, electricity, gas, telecommunications and daily needs must be guaranteed in the event of a pandemic. Quarantines will never work unless these needs are met.

Two factors will influence the security of supply of essential services: the supply chain and operators. We have not heard of any coronaviruses disrupting the performance of essential services around the world. However, public service operators must now be required to submit their business continuity plans. In cases where a significant number of public service personnel are infected with COVID-19, other personnel or the military must be ready to operate these services.

The poor will be hit the hardest because of social distancing. They may not be able to pay their utility bills. Current legislation still allows the public services to be disconnected in the event of non-payment. As such, the government should publish a policy prohibiting disconnection of public services for anyone during the pandemic. One simply cannot imagine the impact on public health if, for example, water services are interrupted during a pandemic, which requires frequent hand washing.

Law enforcement will also be affected. Iran is said to have temporarily released 54,000 prisoners. Riots have spread in Italian prisons due to concerns over the coronavirus and also due to the ban on family visits. At the end of February, 555 people were infected in Chinese prisons. With our overcrowded prisons, authorities may consider releasing low-risk Indonesian prisoners.

Police forces may also be affected. During the "mitigation" phase, the UK plan for the police is to focus only on serious crimes and public order. Crimes such as hoaxes should not be prosecuted unless it is proven that they have a major impact.

Legal means to mobilize these resources are already available, but in some cases may not be directly applicable. Article 8 of the 2018 law on sanitary quarantine guarantees the "satisfaction of essential needs" during quarantine. However, the laws governing the disconnection of essential services are regulated in different sectoral legislations.

Presidential Instruction No. 4/2019 on pandemics is fairly advanced, but of course, this is not a specific response to COVID-19. The 2009 Ministry of Health guideline in response to avian influenza focuses primarily on epidemiological intervention and therefore does not deal with essential services and law enforcement.

As such, all of the aforementioned elements examined would require at least one presidential regulation in order to ensure multisectoral compliance. Hopefully none of these scenarios will happen. Nevertheless, we have to plan for the worst because, if we don't plan, we plan to fail.

***

Mohamad Mova Al’Afghani is director of the Center for Regulation, Policy and Governance, an interdisciplinary research center in Bogor, West Java. Rodri Tanoto is a medical doctor and holds a master's degree in global health and development from University College London.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of The Jakarta Post.