comments expresses the opinions of the writer.
Norwegian intelligence services believe that China will become a greater threat to Norway's security than Russia. This was revealed on Monday when the e-Service, in collaboration with the Police Security Service (PST) and the National Security Authority (NSM), presented their annual threat assessment.
Defense Analysis 2024 also contains a strong warning against China as a known security risk, as well as for Norway: China's known military capability and aggression play a major role in states' military development -United and therefore have great indirect importance for Norway.
The most important reason why China will be able to threaten more than Russia is the economic control that the Chinese have over Norway.
We simply depend on a lot of important products from China. Barth Eide's charm offensive was aimed at commerce and thus dependence at a time when we need less dependency.
We can only achieve this by limiting trade with China, finding alternative suppliers for vital goods, or starting to produce more ourselves, such as medicines and medical equipment.
Anders Magnus has been a foreign correspondent for NRK on three continents: Africa, Asia and America. His last assignment was Washington DC, where he covered most of Donald Trump's reign – and the start of Jo Biden's.
Magnus was also a journalist at Bergens Tidende and TV2 – where he led the PS and M programs.
Warns against trading kt
There are good reasons for Norwegian companies, and therefore municipal or other companies, to rethink with whom they choose to cooperate, enter into contracts or buy and sell. said a representative for Dagbladet's electronic service.
Also in Defense Analysis 2024, it is warned against any economic relationship with a dictatorship like China:
The belief in trade as a common interest governed by common rules is weakened and fueled by competition for raw materials and access to markets, with a tendency to divide rival economic blocs. The US and EU are more reserved about free trade with China and seek to limit Chinese economic influence.
When Russia began its big invasion of Ukraine in 2022, a number of Norwegian companies had to withdraw from the country due to sanctions. This went smoothly, as Norway did not have such large investments in Russia and did not need as many Russian products.
Can forget about going green
If we come into conflict with China, the situation will be completely different.
Today, we are completely dependent on laptops and mobile phones made in China. Many other electronic devices as well, as well as medicines and medical equipment, to name only the most urgent. Much of our clothing and shoes also come from China, some produced by forced laborers in concentration camps in Xinjiang province.
In such a situation, we can simply forget about going green. China produces many of the solar cells, wind turbines and electric cars we buy. Additionally, access to the minerals we need for new green technologies is almost monopolized by China: cobalt, lithium and rare earth metals, to name a few.
Conflict between dictatorship and democracy
But we do not want to go to war with such a distant country, many will say. If we avoid a hot military conflict, this does not mean that the Chinese threat can have major consequences.
China now leads an unholy alliance of authoritarian and totalitarian states such as Russia, North Korea, Iran and Belarus. Several countries have joined and the main objective of this alliance is to break Western influence on world politics. In particular, the idea of freedom and democracy threatens dictatorships like China and Russia.
In the electronic service's Focus 2024 report, it is stated:
The (Chinese) Communist Party wants a new world order, in which the West will no longer dominate, where liberal values such as democracy and free speech will not govern, and where China's position as a major power gives the country the power to define international issues. The strategic partnership with Russia is based on the perception of the United States as the main threat to Chinese and Russian ambitions. This partnership puts Beijing in a better position to use its resources to meet with the United States and its allies in the Pacific.
The timing couldn't have been worse
War for Taiwan?
The Chinese dictator has long declared that the capture of Taiwan, if necessary by military means, is his important political goal. This is one of the reasons why the United States has moved many military resources to the Pacific.
If war breaks out in Taiwan, the Americans will have to concentrate on this region and Europe will have to defend itself, for example against further Russian aggression.
Defense Analysis 2024 outlines concerns about Russia's progress in the war against Ukraine:
A Russian victory in Ukraine will strengthen states that wish to challenge a rules-based world order, because a brutal military attack will then have succeeded. China will have a strengthened belief that its goal of controlling the South China Sea and Taiwan can be achieved by military means. If the use of military force between states seems appropriate, this implies a fundamental change in the security environment of Norway and our allies.
China now has the world's largest navy, as well as the world's largest trade zone. They can use some of these civilian ships to spy on Norway. Here, the northern regions and Svalbard in particular will be of interest, and China is particularly interested in the presence of important minerals in the seabed of the Norwegian continental shelf.
Politicians look up
The threat from Chinese intelligence services in Norway is significant and we expect it to increase in the coming times, PST head of counterintelligence Inger Haugland told Nettavisen.
PST: Chinese actors threatened people at Oslo conference
In the PST's ungraded threat assessment for 2024, it is stated that China is now our largest partner in technological research projects.
This gives Chinese actors considerable room to transfer Norwegian technology to Chinese military programs, either voluntarily or under pressure.
With the exception of Venstre leader Guri Melby and her party colleagues, it does not appear that Norwegian politicians are capable of understanding the extent of the security threat posed to Norway by the Chinese dictatorship led by the communists. With the Court's threat assessment as a backdrop, politicians should look up and limit trade and dependence with China, not stop it.
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