7 consecutive defeats for Trump, and counting

Donald Trump surprised the world by winning the US presidential election in 2016, creating a mystique as someone who could break the rules, violate the norms, take foolish risks and still win.

The mystique is gone.

Since 2018, Trump has suffered a series of losses that should bury the idea that Trump is somehow defying gravity in politics and business. The latest judgment against him, a mammoth $355 million fine for business fraud in New York state, could threaten the entire business that Trump's father, Fred, started in the 1920s, if she survives a call.

Further setbacks seem likely. Trump faces 91 criminal charges in four separate cases and has astronomical legal bills. As he races toward the Republican presidential nomination, and even leading Democratic nominee President Joe Biden, in some polls, Trump is also racking up a record as a serial loser. Seven notable examples:

The 2018 midterm elections. Voters' disgust with Trump in the second year of his presidency helped Democrats lose 40 seats and take back the House of Representatives from Trump's Republican Party. While it's normal for the president's party to lose ground in the midterms, 2018 exit polls found unusually high levels of opposition to Trump, fueling record turnout. Control of the House allowed Democrats to block Trump's legislative agenda during the final two years of his presidency.

The 2020 presidential election. Trump was the first incumbent president to lose re-election since George HW Bush in 1992.

The 2020 Senate Race. Control of the Senate in the 2020 elections came down to two runoffs in Georgia that were not concluded until early January 2021. Two Democratic challengers ended up defeating two Republican incumbents, a Hollywood ending unlikely for Democrats which gave them a one-vote majority and control. of both houses of Congress. Many analysts, including Republicans, have blamed Trump's defeat in the Georgia Senate on Trump's election denialism and his feuding with fellow Republicans. These two Senate seats allowed Democrats to pass a huge stimulus bill in 2021 and a massive package of green energy incentives in 2022, which would never have happened if Republicans had kept the control of the Senate.

The story continues

Former US President Donald Trump speaks to the press as he arrives at Manhattan Criminal Court in New York on February 15, 2024. (ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images) (ANGELA WEISS via Getty Images)

The 2022 Midterms. Trump supported various Republicans in 2022, including many incumbents who had no chance of losing. However, in competitive races, most of Trump's picks lost, including Senate candidates Herschel Walker in Georgia, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Blake Masters in Arizona, allowing Democrats to retain the Senate. Republicans did take control of the House, but only just, with Democrats overperforming. Once again, exit polls showed that Trump's involvement hurt Republicans. The slim majority of Republicans paved the way for last October's defenestration of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and the resulting paralysis that Joe Biden is now exploiting in his re-election campaign.

Trump Organization fraud case. In December 2022, a New York jury convicted Trump's real estate company on 17 counts of tax fraud and other crimes. This is the same case in which former CFO Allen Weisselberg pleaded guilty to tax crimes. A judge fined the company $1.6 million, the maximum allowed. Prosecutors have not charged Trump personally.

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Prosecutions E. Jean Carroll. Last year, a federal jury ruled that Trump had sexually abused and defamed the New York writer, ordering him to pay him $5 million. Trump continued to publicly castigate Carroll, and in January another jury ordered Trump to pay Carroll an additional $83.3 million. Trump eventually stopped attacking Carroll.

Fraud prosecution in New York State. Last September, a judge concluded that Trump, his company and several executives defrauded banks and insurance companies by significantly and repeatedly overestimating the value of certain properties. On February 17, the same judge fined Trump $355 million, plus interest that could bring the total to more than $450 million.

Trump said in 2016 that he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue in New York without facing consequences. He and his supporters should reassess their situation. Over the past few years, Trump has repeatedly faced consequences for cheating, bullying, lying, and overestimating his abilities. The stakes are about to get even higher.

In March, Trump will face a criminal trial in New York related to hush money payments during the 2016 election that Trump claimed as business expenses. A guilty verdict could result in up to four years in prison. A federal trial is underway over Trump's role in the Jan. 6, 2021, riots at the U.S. Capitol and another over his misuse of classified documents after leaving the White House. Then there's the Fulton County, Georgia, election fraud trial.

If Trump once seemed capable of getting away with anything, that is no longer the case. Trump appears to be winning points with his supporters by speaking to judges and prosecutors, but he is losing cases and a huge amount of money. Some analysts believe Trump's legal disasters could force him to declare personal bankruptcy.

As for the 2024 election, Trump appears ready to defy the rules again by becoming the only major presidential candidate to be prosecuted and possibly convicted of serious crimes during his campaign. He could even beat Biden in November and run for a second presidential term. But Trump is no longer an outsider, a dynasty destroyer or a swamp drainer. The establishment he wants to destroy is fighting back and racking up a series of considerable victories.

Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter at @rickjnewman.

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