Politics
Should Ukraine be worried about Transdniestrian provocations?
The closer the date of February 28 approaches (the day set for the general congress of local “deputies” of occupied Transnistria), the more acute the question of what the Kremlin will do there arises.
Moldovan MP Oazu Nantoi is one of the few Moldovan lawmakers who is well versed in Transnistrian affairs and understands Russian tactics.
Sergiy Sydorenko, editor-in-chief of European Pravda, spoke with him in kyiv, where Nantoi visited to mark the second anniversary of the Russian invasion.
Nantoi does not rule out recognition by Moscow of the “independence” of Transnistria.
Learn more about the possible consequences of recognition, why Chisinau remains calm and what is the position of the Ukrainian community in Moldova in the interview – Threat from Transnistria, Putin's plan and pro-Russian Ukrainians in Moldova.
The situation is alarming, although personally I treat it with humor, because it is not the first time.
Transnistria constantly repeats that it is a Russian outpost. There were about six referendums called “Putin, take us away” [the last and key “referendum,” which “established” that Transnistria should join the Russian Federation, took place in 2006. – ed.].
But Russia has not recognized the “independence” of Transnistria. The fact is that Putin does not need this narrow strip of land, but the entire Republic of Moldova, influenced by Transnistria all these years.
And it is on this basis that we approach February 28 when in Tiraspol the so-called “congress of all deputies” will take place. He plans to appeal to Putin. This is a spectacle and a political provocation organized at the request of the Kremlin. The objective is to play into the hands of the Kremlin Führer.
It is difficult to say what the Kremlin will do next.
It cannot be ruled out that Russia will recognize the so-called “independence of Transnistria” to aggravate the situation.
If the Russian Federation recognizes the “independence of Transnistria”, I do not expect any apocalyptic scenario.
After all, Moldova does not share a common border with Russia. The front line is far from Moldova.
On the contrary, such a move by the Kremlin could encourage kyiv and Chisinau to take more specific, but peaceful, steps towards the reintegration of the Republic of Moldova.
So that the inhabitants of the left bank of the Dniester realize that Russia is far away.
And besides, the authorities on the left bank of the Dniester are well aware of their vulnerability. The fact that the Kremlin can resort to escalation is not in its commercial interests.
Nothing will change on the military level, the armed units of the left bank do not have significant military potential. So even if they launch actions against Ukraine, they will not last long.
Theoretically though, in the apocalyptic scenario where something happens on the front line, the Joint Control Commission and the “Transnistrian Army” could play some role.
Everything therefore depends on the successes of the Ukrainian armed forces on the front.
Russian attempts to destabilize Moldova are not limited to Transnistria.
There is reason to expect problems in the Gagauz autonomy in southern Moldova.
But Russia's main objective remains the presidential election in Moldova at the end of 2024. Russia has not yet chosen its candidate.
More realistically, the provocation in the form of the Transnistrian “congress” is related to the internal politics of Moldova, where presidential elections are planned for 2024 and a referendum on citizens' attitudes towards Moldova's membership in the EU.
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Sources 2/ https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/28/7180626/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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