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RFK Jr. candidacy hurts Trump more than Biden, NBC News poll finds

RFK Jr. candidacy hurts Trump more than Biden, NBC News poll finds

 


Latest national NBC News poll finds third-party voting, particularly independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., runs deeper in support of former President Donald Trump than President Joe Biden, although the movement created by the other candidates is within the margin of error of the polls.

Trump leads Biden by 2 percentage points in a head-to-head matchup, 46% to 44%, in the new NBC News poll.

Yet when the ballot is expanded to five named candidates, Biden is the one with a 2-point lead: Biden 39%, Trump 37%, Kennedy 13%, Jill Stein 3% and Cornel West 2%.

The main reason is that the poll finds that a larger share of Trump voters in the head-to-head vote support Kennedy in the expanded vote. Fifteen percent of respondents who first chose Trump chose Kennedy in the five-way vote, compared to 7% of those who initially chose Biden.

Additionally, Republican voters view Kennedy much more favorably (40% positive, 15% negative) than Democratic voters (16% positive, 53% negative).

At this stage, [Kennedys] The appeal appears to be more toward Trump voters than Biden voters, said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted the NBC News poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.

This conclusion, however, contrasts with conventional political wisdom as well as results from other national polls suggesting that a larger third-party vote hurts Biden more.

The NBC News poll results on Kennedy's impact are different from other polls, said McInturff, the GOP pollster. So there are always two possibilities: First, it's an outlier. Or two, we're going to see more, and our investigation is a harbinger of what's to come.

The Biden campaign actively tried to withdraw support for Kennedy. Most recently, Biden held an event Thursday with members of the Kennedy family supporting him rather than their relative.

Overall, the party is paying far more attention to Kennedy than to previous third-party candidates, mobilizing new super PACs and an arm of the Democratic National Committee focused on reducing the appeal of his candidacy.

The NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters nationwide, 891 contacted by cell phone, was conducted April 12-16 and has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jr-candidacy-hurts-trump-biden-nbc-news-poll-finds-rcna148536

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