Blinken heads to China with potential problems on the horizon

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken arrived in China on Wednesday in an attempt to preserve the recent delicate stabilization of ties between the United States and China, as trade tensions, territorial disputes and national security threaten to collapse. derail relationships again.

Even before Mr. Blinkens' plane approached Shanghai, the challenges ahead were clear. He landed just hours after the U.S. Senate passed a bill, which President Biden is expected to quickly sign into law, that provides $8 billion for Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region, and could also lead to a nationwide ban on the Chinese application. TikTok.

The political season in the United States also appears to be a complication. As the presidential election approaches, Democrats and Republicans are competing to appear tougher on China. And if former President Donald Trump is re-elected, he could reverse efforts by Beijing and Washington to stabilize relations.

During Mr. Blinkens' three-day trip, which will also include a visit to Beijing, he plans to press Chinese officials on a wide range of issues, including his support for Russia, cheap Chinese exports that, according to American officials, threaten American jobs and Chinese exports. The ships are conducting aggressive maneuvers in the South China Sea, a senior State Department official told reporters in a telephone briefing.

Chinese officials are likely to discuss U.S. support for Taiwan, the self-governing island claimed by China, and trade restrictions that Beijing calls discriminatory.

Mr. Blinken is expected to meet Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. It is not yet clear whether he will meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping, as he did during his last visit in June.

The visit, the first by a US secretary of state to China since 2018, comes at perhaps the worst time in US-China relations in recent years. High-level military communications were cut off, and neighboring countries feared the two powers would go to war.

Since then, relations have thawed somewhat. China's economy is slowing and Beijing has adopted a softer diplomatic tone to attract more foreign investment. Washington, while continuing to warn that China poses a threat to global security, has said it wants to keep communication open.

In November, Mr. Biden and Mr. Xi met for four hours near San Francisco. Subsequently, China agreed to resume cooperation with the United States in combating global fentanyl production, and both countries affirmed the importance of restoring cultural exchanges. The two leaders also spoke by telephone this month.

Last week, the country's top defense officials held a video conference, their first substantial engagement since the end of 2022.

But new sources of tension are emerging. Western officials are increasingly expressing concerns about China's support for Russia in its war in Ukraine. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, during her own visit to China earlier this month, warned of significant consequences if Beijing provided material support. China has argued this is not the case, while deepening ties with Moscow. Mr. Xi received the Russian foreign minister this month, and Russian President Vladimir V. Putin is expected to visit China soon.

U.S. officials also said China was selling cheap electric vehicles and solar panels in foreign markets, hurting U.S. businesses. China has rejected the accusations, calling them protectionism.

The aggressive behavior of Chinese ships in disputed waters with the Philippines and Japan has also raised concerns about a possible clash that could draw in the United States, a treaty ally of those countries.

In Taiwan, perhaps the most sensitive issue in U.S.-China relations, the island is preparing next month to inaugurate its new president, Lai Ching-te, whom Beijing calls a defender of independence of Taiwan.

Asked at a regular press briefing Wednesday about new congressional aid to Taiwan, Wang Wenbin, a spokesperson for China's Foreign Ministry, said stronger military cooperation between the United States and Taiwan is not an option. would not bring security to Taiwan and would only increase tensions across the country. Taiwan Strait.

Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun told US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin during his call that China would not tolerate any compromise on Taiwan, according to the Chinese reading.

Mr. Wang declined to answer repeated questions on TikTok on Wednesday. He referred reporters to previous statements from China's Commerce Ministry, which said it would strongly oppose the sale of the app.

In the United States, anti-China rhetoric is likely to intensify as Democrats and Republicans vie to outdo each other on one of the few areas of bipartisan agreement. Campaigning last week in Pennsylvania, a stronghold of the steel industry, Mr. Biden called for increasing tariffs on steel imports from China.

We had high hopes after the San Francisco summit, but recent developments put a lot of pressure on relations, said Xie Tao, dean of the School of International Relations and Diplomacy at Beijing Foreign Studies University . When you add up all of these negative developments, you currently get a rather depressing picture of US-China relations.

Both countries have reason to try to prevent an escalation of tensions. The United States has asked China to help prevent Iran, with which it has good relations, from pushing its hostilities with Israel toward all-out war. And China is eager to avoid new tariffs from the United States because its strong exports have helped offset its housing crisis and weak consumer spending.

But the two countries may also have little room for diplomatic maneuver, due to hardening public opinion on both sides.

There are already many irritants and issues of distrust within that relationship, said Allen Carlson, a professor of international relations at Cornell University.

If you have a pot that's already close to boiling, just add a degree or two to push things over the edge.