Jokowi's debt reaches IDR 8,338 T, 4 years adds IDR 3,500 T

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The total public debt as of April 30, 2024 reached IDR 8,338.43 trillion. Since President Joko Widodo's second term, the total debt increased by approximately IDR 3,551.85 trillion, as the final debt position in 2019 reached IDR 4,786.58 trillion.

Then in 2019, the debt continued to increase. The value jumped to IDR 6,079.17 trillion, an increase of 27.01% in 2020. Then the debt increased again in 2021, its position became IDR 6,913.98 trillion and in 2022, it reached IDR 7,776.74 trillion. Then, the debt in 2023 will reach IDR 8,163.07 trillion.

Based on records from 2019 to date, the majority of the total public debt comes from the issuance of government securities (SBN). Until the end of April 2024, the total issuance of SBN amounted to IDR 7,333.11 trillion, the rest came from loans of IDR 1,005.32 trillion.

For SBN, this is IDR 5,899.2 trillion in rupee denominations and IDR 1,433.90 trillion in foreign currency denominations. The majority of loans came from foreign loans amounting to IDR 969.28 trillion and domestic loans amounting to IDR 36.04 trillion.

Based on currency, the debt in US dollars amounts to IDR 1,713.26 trillion, 388.45 trillion euros, 270 trillion Japanese yen and 30.92 trillion others. The majority is in rupee currency and amounts to IDR 5,935.42 trillion, out of a total debt as of April 30, 2024 IDR 8,338.43 trillion.

Even as total debt continues to rise, the debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio has declined over the past four years, although the latest debt-to-GDP ratio remains well above 2019. The Falling Debt Ratio /GDP occurred because Indonesia's GDP itself continues to increase.

In 2019, the debt-to-GDP ratio was 30.2%, as the GDP at that time was IDR 15.834 trillion. Then, in 2020, the ratio was 39.4% because Indonesia's GDP during the Covid-19 pandemic fell to IDR 15,434 trillion, while in 2021, the ratio was 40.7%. because the GDP was IDR 16,971 trillion.

The debt-to-GDP ratio will start to decline to 39.7% in 2022. Indeed, GDP at that time had reached IDR 19,588 trillion. Continuing in 2023, the ratio will be 39.2% because the GDP at that time was IDR 20,892 trillion. Then, as of April 30, 2024, the ratio will only be 36.5% with a GDP of IDR 22.83 trillion.

As for 2025, the government assures that debt management will be more prudent, as the world now faces a trend towards very high benchmark interest rates, which can potentially affect the cost of borrowing debt .

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said that prudent debt management is reflected in the APBN 2025 deficit design, which is low and still below the safe deficit limit of 3%, which is only within the range of 2%. .45 to 2.82% of gross domestic product (GDP) and a primary balance deficit of 0.3 to 0.61% of GDP.

Sri Mulyani said that in determining the size of the deficit, the government also took into account the conditions of the era of high interest rates around the world, as well as the weakening of the rupee exchange rate by compared to the US dollar. He said both conditions would affect the APBN deficit.

“If it remains higher for a prolonged period and the exchange rate comes under pressure, it will certainly affect spending, especially that on debt interest payments,” he said.

“Therefore, we need to be very careful in debt management in a global trend like this,” Sri Mulyani said.

In the initial version of the APBN 2025, or the APBN when President-elect Prabowo Subianto's government began operations, besides the APBN deficit which was designed to be between 2.45 and 2.82 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), the debt ratio was designed to increase slightly from current conditions, namely in the range of 37.98% to 38.71%.

Photo: Central government debt situation. (Doc. Ministry of Finance) Central government debt situation. (Doc. Ministry of Finance)

[Gambas:Video CNBC]