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Here's who's leading Trump against. Biden Election Polls

Here's who's leading Trump against.  Biden Election Polls
Here's who's leading Trump against.  Biden Election Polls


Top line

Former President Donald Trump's belief in hush money is not a factor for most voters in the 2024 election, according to a new CBS/YouGov poll, while other surveys show Trump has lost a small share of its potential supporters following the verdict and the race remains close. .

Trump and Biden remain virtually tied, as Trump loses lead in early polls

AFP via Getty Images Key Facts

The majority, 55 percent, of likely voters said Trump's conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records was not a factor in their voting decision, according to the CBS/YouGov poll released Sunday that also revealed six other issues, including the economy, crime and border, trail conviction by double-digit margins in terms of importance to voters.

Other surveys have shown that Trump did not lose much support following his conviction. A Times/Siena survey last week found Trump leading Biden 47% to 46%, a one-point drop for Trump and a one-point increase for Biden. among the same group of 2,000 voters surveyed in April and May, before Trump was convicted last month by a Manhattan jury.

An Emerson College survey released Thursday shows that Trump's support has remained the same, while Biden's support has increased by one point since last month, although Trump's lead widens to six points with third-party candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., on the ballot.

Of four major polls that coincided with the timing of the verdict, Biden leads in two of them: he is ahead by two points in a Reuters/Ipsos survey and by one point in a Morning Consult survey, while the race is tied in an I&I/survey. TIPP survey and Trump leads by two points in HarrisX survey.

Biden's approval rating surpassed Trump's for the fifth straight week, the longest period since April of last year, according to a Morning Consult survey conducted from May 31 to June 2, but the poll also found that Trump would still beat Biden by one point if the election were held today, a drop of one point since the group's previous survey conducted before the conviction.

An Economist/YouGov survey released Wednesday finds Biden and Trump tied at 42 percent, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr., independent candidate Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein on the ballot.

An I&I/TIPP survey released last Monday found that Trump and Biden are tied at 41% in a head-to-head matchup, and tied at 38% support if third-party candidates are on the ballot.

Large number

0.8. That's the number of percentage points by which Trump leads Biden in a two-way race, compared to two points when third-party candidates are included, according to RealClearPolitics polling averages.

To monitor

In the seven key states that will likely decide the election — Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — all narrowly won in 2020 except North Carolina, polls consistently show Trump leads Biden. A May Cook Political Report poll found Trump up three points on average in all seven states, a May Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll found Trump leading Biden by four points overall in battleground states and a April New York Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer poll. found that Trump would beat Biden in five of six swing states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia and Nevada), except Wisconsin.

Surprising fact

In such a tight race, Kennedy Jr. has the potential to influence the election with his independent candidacy, although it is unclear in whose favor. A May Emerson poll found Trump widening his lead over Biden, from two points to five, with Kennedy Jr., West and Stein in the mix. Kennedy received 6% support, while 10% of voters said they were undecided. A May Fox poll shows Trump's lead increasing by two points with all three independents on the ballot. The Times/Siena/Inquirer investigation found that Kennedy Jr. is drawing votes from Biden's core supporters. Kennedy has the support of just 10% of voters in six battleground states in a five-way contest, but support is as high as 18% for voters aged 18 to 29 and 14% for Hispanic voters. And a recent CAPS/Harris poll from Harvard shows that Trump's five-point lead remains unchanged with Kennedy Jr. on the ballot. Meanwhile, an April NBC poll found Biden trailing Trump by two points in a head-to-head race, but beating him by two with Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates on the ballot.


Polls appear to be skewed toward Trump by disengaged voters who may not participate in the 2024 election, according to a New York Times analysis that found Biden leading the last three Times/Siena polls among voters in 2020, but lagging among registered voters overall.


Polls have consistently suggested that Biden and the Democratic Party as a whole are losing support among some key demographic groups, including Black, Latino and younger voters. A May NPR/PBS/Marist survey found that young voters under 45 prefer Biden over Trump by just four points and that Biden leads by six points among Gen Z/Millennials in a head-to-head matchup, but the vote leans in favor of Trump among both groups (by six points among Gen Z/Millennials and eight among voters under 45) with third-party candidates in the mix. The April Times/Siena/Inquirer poll also found that Biden is tied with Trump among Hispanic voters in all six battleground states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada) and trails him by four points in these states among 18- to 29-year-olds, two groups that voted for Biden with more than 60% support in 2020, according to the Times. Biden also appears to be losing support in Democratic strongholds, like New York, where he gained nine points over Trump, according to a May Siena College survey, after beating Trump there by 23 points in 2020.

Key context

Biden and Trump are set for a historic rematch after clinching their respective parties' nominations in March, ending the primary season much earlier in the year than in previous elections. Polls show historically low enthusiasm, with both candidates having relatively low favorability ratings, below 45%. The NBC poll found that 64% of voters said they were very interested in this year's election, a 20-year low. Trump has focused his campaign on his legal problems, accusing prosecutors and judges in his criminal cases of working at Biden's behest to hurt his chances of winning the election, although there is no evidence to suggest that this notion is true. Biden, meanwhile, cast Trump as a threat to democracy, citing his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riots, and hammered Trump over the nomination of Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn of Roe v. Wade. Polls show the economy, immigration, abortion and inflation are consistently top issues for voters, while the Times/Siena/Inquirer survey finds a majority trust Trump over to Biden to manage the economy, crime and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but trusts Biden more than Biden. Trump on abortion.

Further reading

These are the six swing states Trump must take from Biden to win in November (Forbes)

RFK Jr. candidacy hurts Trump more than Biden, poll finds (Forbes)

Biden Gaining Ground Over Trump in Swing States, New Poll Shows: It's Latest Survey Showing Positive Signs for Biden (Forbes)

Trump-Biden 2024 polls: here's who will win in the 6 states that will decide the election (Forbes)

Post-Trump condemnation polls show warning signs. Most independents think Trump should drop out (Forbes)




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