80% of Republicans believe Trump's Biden-Manhattan conspiracy theory

Stop me if you've heard this before: Donald Trump is unhappy with the outcome of a proceeding. So, despite the complete lack of evidence, he spent months claiming a concerted conspiracy against him, orchestrated by his infamous political opponents. He says it dozens of times, despite outright denials from key figures and even some Trump allies. And in the end, 4 out of 10 Americans come to believe in the vast left-wing conspiracy.

It came with the idea that the 2020 election was stolen. This has apparently happened now with the idea that President Biden was behind the recent conviction of Trump in Manhattan.

A new CBS News-YouGov poll answers a question I've been hoping someone would ask for a while. He assessed how many Americans buy into the baseless idea that Biden had anything to do with the successful charges against Trump in Manhattan.

Turns out it's 43 percent and 80 percent Republican. These are the percentages who agree that the charges were brought because of instructions from the Biden administration, rather than just New York prosecutors.

A clear majority of Americans, 57 percent, don't believe it. But the idea has taken root in Trump's base.

To be clear, there is no real reason to believe this. The theory relies largely on the fact that former top Justice Department official Matthew Colangelo joined the investigation in 2022. But Colangelo had previously worked alongside Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D ), at the New York attorney general's office, where he had worked on Trump-related investigations. This is as circumstantial and speculative as possible.

Attorney General Merrick Garland strongly denied last week, under oath, that he sent Colangelo to Manhattan. He has denied any contact with Colangelo since joining the DA's office.

Beyond that, this theory has also been firmly rejected in recent weeks by Trump's former lawyer, Joe Tacopina, who worked on Trump's defense early in the Manhattan trial. He called the idea stupid and ridiculous.

Joe Biden or anyone in his Justice Department has absolutely nothing to do with the Manhattan District Attorney's office, Tacopina said in an interview with MSNBC, adding: “We know that's not the case, and even Trump’s lawyers know that’s not the case.

The people who say that, Tacopina told MSNBC, it's scary that they really don't know the law or what they're talking about.

By Tacopina's wording, 4 in 10 Americans have no idea what they're talking about.

Of course, this wouldn't be the first time Trump's base has come to believe something like this, despite the lack of evidence:

About 4 in 10 Americans and nearly 7 in 10 Republicans said Biden legitimately didn't win enough votes in 2020, even though Trump's claims on this subject repeatedly crumble under even modest scrutiny. (Trump supporters have at least largely come to recognize that there is no hard evidence for their belief.) Just as only 20 percent of Republicans reject the Manhattan conspiracy theory, a previous YouGov poll showed that only about 1 in 5 Republicans even acknowledge that Trump tried to overturn the 2020 election. (He most certainly did.) A majority of Republicans called the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the Capitol an Antifa-inspired attack which only involved a few Trump supporters. (This is false.) Half of Republicans denied that Trump even had classified documents at Mar-a-Lago. And about half said they were at least probably planted. (Trump has admitted to having the documents; there is no evidence they were hidden.)

Voters often come to believe outlandish things that excuse their allies and implicate their enemies. But the extent to which these things have become articles of faith on the right has literally no modern precedent.

And the similarities between the Biden-Manhattan theory and stolen election fever go far beyond the surface. Republican lawmakers don't go as far as Trump in alleging an established conspiracy, but they make a point of sowing suspicion. Trump will say there are millions of fraudulent votes; they simply raise concerns about mail-in ballots and election procedures. He will say that Biden was behind the lawsuits in Manhattan; they will just raise questions about Colangelo.

Even at Garland's hearing last week, Rep. Russell Fry (R-S.C.) briefly admitted that it was just a theory.

You may have nothing to do with this, Fry told Garland, but the perception is the same, and the American people feel that the Justice Department is intimately involved in this matter.

We now have a number we can associate with this perception: 43 percent. It's just that, as with many of the numbers above, they are based largely on highly circumstantial and dubious evidence: Trump said it.

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