Politics
Trump rewrote his foreign policy as president. If he wins in 2024, he wants to go furtherExBulletin
Republican presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Las Vegas on Sunday. John Locher/AP .
switch captionJohn Locher/AP
Not long ago, former President Donald Trump made international headlines during a primary campaign rally in South Carolina.
At the event, Trump recalled an unnamed European leader who asked him whether the United States would defend its country if it were invaded by Russia, even if it had not met its spending targets. NATO.
No, I won't protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever they want, Trump recalled. You have to pay. You have to pay your bills.
A return of Trump to the Oval Office means that an alliance like NATO, which fundamentally relies on trust, will suffer because people will not be able to trust Donald Trump to defend them if and when the emergency arises. »
It's a stunning admission that was seen as a slap in the face to European allies and the foreign policy establishment, including people like the former ambassador to NATO from the era Obama, Ivo Daalder.
The statement was less about the threat that allowing Russia to do what it wanted would mean for the countries involved and more about what it said about Trump's vision for alliances, Daalder said.
Former presidents' criticism of NATO and U.S. allies in the alliance is not new. He often called spending targets set out in charter agreements demands and ridiculed countries that did not pay enough.
He criticized his Western allies and moved closer to authoritarian leaders, such as Russia's Vladimir Putin and Hungary's Viktor Orbn.
But Daalder's broader argument, which resonates across party lines, is that Trump is diminishing the importance of a 75-year-old alliance so that the United States is an army for hire and NATO is not is not something fundamental to the security of the United States.
A return of Trump to the Oval Office means an alliance like NATO, which fundamentally relies on trust, will suffer because people will not be able to trust Donald Trump to defend them if and when the emergency arises, said Daalder.
What's new is the second-generation approach to foreign policy from this seasoned Trump who has both White House experience and a card on his shoulder to pursue what he started in his first administration and took it even further.
Today, Trump promised to fundamentally reassess the NATO alliance, reshape global trade, and overhaul the Pentagon, State Department, and intelligence agencies.
He has largely avoided explaining how he would handle conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, yet claims he can resolve the war in Ukraine in 24 hours.
Foreign policy 2.0
He would be like a child without parents to stop him from doing very bad things.
On the campaign trail, Trump raised concerns that the United States was paying too much to support Ukraine.
He again promised to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accords.
And he floated the idea of a 10 percent tax on imports from all countries and a much higher tax on China, echoing at rallies that China is eating our lunch, under the groans and the applause.
John Simon, who served as ambassador to the African Union during the Bush administration, fears that Trump will dismantle key principles of American foreign policy, including resistance to totalitarian aggression.
My big fear is that a second Trump administration will have all the hallmarks of his first administration, without any of the safeguards provided by the more experienced foreign policy people around him, Simon said. He would be like a child without parents to stop him from doing very bad things.
The view from Europe
In this file photo, then-President Donald Trump, center, gestures as he leaves the podium after a group photo at a meeting of NATO leaders in Watford, Wash. Hertfordshire, England, December 4, 2019. Trump says he once warned he would. allow Russia to do whatever it wants to NATO member countries that do not spend 2% of their gross domestic product on defense. Peter Nicholls/AP/Reuters Pool .
switch captionPeter Nicholls/AP/Reuters Pool
Depending on who you ask and where Trump will return, this can spark excitement, concern, even fear across the European continent.
Nathalie Tocci, a former EU foreign policy adviser, says Trump had quite a unifying effect on Europe during his first term.
At the time, leaders rallied under his first administration as the United States appeared to be withdrawing from the transatlantic relationship.
But the political landscape has changed. This week's European parliamentary elections saw a rise in the power of far-right parties.
Trump's election could fuel these divisions. And Tocci said the possibility of a second term has some burying their heads in the sand, unable or unwilling to face the prospect again.
So it's more, you know, this kind of fear of something happening that you think is going to happen and you're becoming more and more convinced that it's going to happen, she said . But it's so scary that we prefer not to think about it.
Without mentioning Trump by name, President Biden addressed some of these concerns during a trip to France last week for the 80th anniversary of D-Day.
Isolationism was not the solution 80 years ago and is not the solution today, Biden said.
Trump remains indifferent
I often tell my European colleagues that there is more continuity in American politics than we sometimes suggest, because we personalize [politics]”.
Trump dismissed the criticism, blaming Biden and the foreign policy establishment for creating a more dangerous world.
Bryan Lanza, a former Trump aide who remains close to the campaign, says Trump was right to challenge NATO members to increase their defense contributions.
The criticism that exists here from the foreign policy community, you know, it's criticism because they don't want change, Lanza said.
It is impossible to predict Trump's exact policies, which has increased the sense of uncertainty.
Still, Heather Conley, who worked on European issues in Bush's State Department, says it's important to remember that many of the policies will be the same whether it's Biden or Trump.
I often tell my European colleagues that there is more continuity in American politics than we sometimes suggest, because we personalize it, she said. And these personalities certainly have different approaches to allies in very specific ways.
As an example, she points to the similarities between Biden and Trump's trade agendas and how Biden maintained the Abraham Accords, a key Trump victory.
Both leaders have maintained strong relations with Israel and a hawkish approach toward China.
Despite personality differences, the status quo often trumps rhetoric.
Underneath, the politics can sometimes seem awfully similar, Conley said. And so they're going to have to deal with the merits of this matter – with a few exceptions – regardless of who occupies the White House.
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