Joe Biden leads Donald Trump among top US pollsters

President Joe Biden has a slim lead over former President Donald Trump in the race for the White House, according to VoteHub's average of the most reliable U.S. pollsters.

In March, the incumbent and former president won enough primaries to secure the Democratic and Republican nominations, respectively, in the 2024 presidential election. Polls have so far shown that the results of the White House rematch in 2020 will be close, with both pairs statistically tied or holding only a marginal lead in a number of surveys.

According to poll tracker VoteHub, which aggregates the averages of polls by highly rated pollsters with an “A” or “B” rating over the past 28 days, Biden holds a razor-thin lead of 0 .1% over Trump with 45.9% of the vote. at 45.8 percent.

Although this represents a slight drop from earlier this month, when Biden was ahead by 0.2% with 46.3% of the vote to Trump's 46.1%, this figure shows that Biden maintains the slight lead that he has held it since the beginning of the month, for only a few days. after Trump was convicted of 34 counts of falsifying business records related to a secret $130,000 payment made to adult film star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 presidential election.

President Joe Biden delivers remarks on an executive order limiting asylum at the White House June 4, 2024 in Washington, D.C. The president holds a slim lead over Donald Trump according to a national survey… President Joe Biden delivers remarks on an executive order limiting asylum at the White House on June 4, 2024, in Washington, D.C. The president holds a slim lead over Donald Trump according to a national poll average. More photos by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

A number of polls suggest that Trump's guilty verdict is hurting his chances of electoral success and this national average might suggest the same.

A new Morning Consult poll, for example, also shows that Trump has lost his lead over his rival. On May 28, Trump was ahead of Biden by 2 percentage points, but he is now behind him by 1 percentage point. While Biden benefits from 44% of the potential vote against 43% for Trump, this is the first time that the Democrat has ahead of the Republican in this poll since the beginning of May.

The survey was conducted among 10,260 registered voters June 7-9. The margin of error is plus or minus 1 percentage point.

Meanwhile, polling and forecasting site FiveThirtyEight predicted that Biden would win the election, using a forecast simulation.

Newsweek reached out to representatives for Trump and Biden via email for comment outside of normal business hours.

While national polls are interesting, the 2024 presidential election will likely be determined by only a handful of key states due to the U.S. Electoral College system that awards each state a certain number of votes, based on its population.

A presidential candidate must receive 270 electoral votes to win, and winning the national popular vote does not guarantee success.

Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the United Kingdom, said there had been “ups and downs for both candidates.”

“It's been an up-and-down week for both candidates,” he previously told Newsweek. “There is a suggestion that Trump's 34 felony convictions don't sit well with independents, and Biden's presence on the Normandy beaches to commemorate D-Day played well with veterans and older voters.

“But the horrors in Gaza are undermining Biden's foreign policy credentials, and the Hunter Biden gun trial is sucking the positive oxygen out of the country. Meanwhile, Trump is enjoying challenger advantage at the moment of being able to get back on the road, contest everything Biden does while not being responsible for anything.

“The polls all remain within the margin of error in a tight race between two unpopular candidates. We are still in a phoney war with nothing mattering in the polls until the candidates launch into their first debate 1:1.”

Biden and Trump will face off in the first of two debates scheduled for June 27 in Atlanta. The presidential election will take place on November 5.

Uncommon knowledge

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

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