Monitoring the polls for the general election: Starmers' Labor or Rishi Sunaks' Conservatives, who wins?

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has set the general election date for July 4 after months of speculation. But even if the economic news is good, with inflation falling, the polls remain largely unfavorable to the conservatives.

The last general election was in 2019, when Boris Johnson and the Conservatives won 365 seats, while Jeremy Corbyn's Labor Party won 202. Since then, both parties have changed leaders in some cases, not to mention of the entry into force of Brexit and the global crisis. Corona virus pandemic.

So what do the polls say? If Mr Sunak was hoping to wait for the polls to swing in his favor before calling an election, he was seriously mistaken.

The general public has been generally unhappy with the Prime Minister and Sir Starmer, with Ipsos polls showing consistently negative net satisfaction for both party leaders since Mr Sunak came in at 10th in November 2022.

Mr Sunak's approval rating fell to the lowest level ever recorded for a prime minister in April, at -59 per cent; was only matched by John Major in August 1994. This figure is lower than that of Liz Truss, whose net approval rating was -51 percent for her brief tenure as Prime Minister.

Sir Keir Starmers Labor has a 24-point lead in the latest Techne UK voting intention poll, with the gap between Conservatives and Labor remaining wider than ever.

After a drop in the polls following Mr Sunak's election announcement, the Conservatives have made little progress with voters.

With just 20 per cent of the vote, the Conservatives are still at one of their lowest levels of popularity with the electorate under Mr Sunak.

Meanwhile, Reform UK has climbed to 15 per cent of the national vote, having been neck and neck with the Lib Dems in recent months and chasing the spot as the third largest party in the polls.

Both parties appear to enjoy support from historic conservative voters.

Labor has consistently scored 44 percent and the Conservatives have lost more points since January.

Although it is not entirely clear why Mr Sunak chose to go to the polls now, one in four people believe the Prime Minister was hoping to benefit from recent improvement in inflation figures, according to a Redfield and Wilton poll for the Independent.

If so, conservatives see no joy when it comes to voters' intentions.

The latest data comes from 1,630 respondents across the UK, weighted to be representative of the population.

Satisfaction with Mr Sunak and Sir Keir remains low, according to a separate monthly poll by Ipsos UK.

The data comes from 1,000 UK adults surveyed each month, answering the question: Are you satisfied/dissatisfied with the way… is doing his job as Prime Minister/as leader of the Labor Party?

Despite the overall low figures, the Labor leader's satisfaction has jumped over the past month, rising 13 points from -31 per cent to -18 per cent.

Mr Sunak saw a rise of 5 points over the same period, from -59 per cent to -55 per cent. This puts Mr Starmer 37 points ahead in terms of net satisfaction.

An exclusivity Independent A Redfield and Wilton poll shows the economy tops the list of issues most important to voters, with 37 percent. With inflation slowing (to 2.3 percent in May), the economy could be a key button for the Conservatives to press; if the general public can look beyond the last two years.

Meanwhile, healthcare is the most important issue to one in five voters this election, following widespread strikes, pandemic tensions and scandals within the NHS including the infected blood inquiry and exorbitant waiting lists.

Migration is also a concern that divides voters, with both Labor and the Conservatives pledging to reduce their numbers.