Reviews | There may be positive signals, but Xi's rejection of Modi suggests China-India relations remain worrying

Ambassador Xu Feihong, a former deputy foreign minister, arrived a month ago, shortly after the Indian prime minister. Narendra ModiApril conciliatory message on easing border tensions.

Xu is not considered an expert on India, but his appointment and Modis' remarks on the need for stable and peaceful relations were seen as rare positive signals.

But there are few clear signs that the Asian giants are getting along better, with their border standoff since 2020 still unresolved, a situation that S. Jaishankar, India's foreign minister, described in April as competitive, sensitive and difficult.

Modi was re-elected last week with a much closer victory than expected, becoming the second Indian prime minister after Jawaharlal Nehru to retain power for a third five-year term.

China's Foreign Ministry congratulated Modi on his election victory at a regular press briefing the next day, saying Beijing was willing to work with India to promote healthy and stable development of relations.

Xu, the new ambassador, also offered his congratulations after Modi took oath on Sunday, urging New Delhi to follow the consensus reached between President Xi Jinping and PM Modi in an article on X.

But visibly, it seems that the Chinese president has not yet sent a message to Modi, unlike other world leaders, including Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, India's main rival.

It was a different story five years ago, when Xi congratulated Modi on the day of his landslide election victory, describing India as an important neighbor to whom I attach great importance.

Although Xi has yet to send a message to Modi this time, he last week congratulated the presidents-elect of Mexico and Iceland on their electoral victories, according to the Foreign Ministry website.

It is a situation that clearly illustrates the toll the Himalayan border conflict has taken on bilateral relations since a deadly clash between soldiers in eastern Ladakh in June 2020.

Just a year earlier, Xi and Modi met regularly, their heart-to-heart friendship and strong momentum in bilateral relations helping to defuse the 73-day standoff at the Doklam border in 2017.

It could be that Xi's silence after Modi's victory is another snub by Beijing due to New Delhi's slow but steady tilt towards Washington. Xi also skipped the Group of 20 summit held in India last year, sending Prime Minister Li Qiang instead.

Modi's message to Taiwan's new leader, William Lai Ching-te denounced by Beijing as a separatist and troublemaker could also have something to do with it.

Beijing reacted with fury after Modi thanked Lai for his warm congratulatory message after his re-election. Modi said on X that he looked forward to closer ties as we work towards a mutually beneficial economic and technological partnership.

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning told reporters in Beijing that India had made serious political commitments and was expected to recognize, be concerned about and resist the political calculations of Taiwanese authorities.

Beijing, which views the autonomous island as part of its territory to be reunified by force if necessary, often accuses foreign governments of playing the Taiwan card to slow the rise of mainland China.

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Modis BJP claims historic victory in Indian elections despite narrower majority

Modis BJP claims historic victory in Indian elections despite narrower majority

With Modi retaining his top ministers, including Jaishankar, his coalition government is widely expected to maintain broad policy continuity, including its efforts to forge closer ties with the United States and regional countries such as the Philippines to counter China.

At a time when China is locked in a Cold War-style rivalry with the United States and complains of an increasingly hostile external environment, it will be a missed opportunity if it does not demonstrate a willingness to improve his ties with his neighbor. After all, it is Beijing that insists that the border conflict should be separated from political and economic ties or, as Foreign Minister Wang Yi has said, that it should not define the overall relationship.

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