The Taiwan falcon? – The China Wire

Good evening. Matt Pottinger, deputy national security adviser under Trump, is known as one of America's biggest hawks on China. But in his new book, The boiling moat: urgent measures to defend Taiwan, he argues that the real hawk is Xi Jinping and that if the United States is to avoid a devastating war against Taiwan, urgent action must be taken. Our cover story this week is from Pottinger's book and is his argument for taking Xi Jinping more seriously and the need for deterrence.

If you would like to hear Pottinger discuss the book, our sister publication, China Books Review, is hosting a panel with him at the Asia Society in New York on July 1 at 6:30 p.m.. Other guests include Winston Lord, Zongyuan Zoe Liu, Jianying Zha and Orville Schell. (And for more on what Pottinger is up to lately, don't miss our article on Garnaut Global, his company with John Garnaut.)

Elsewhere in our magazine this week we have infographics on the rare earth rumble currently taking place in Australia; an interview with Jonathan Chatwin on the importance of Deng Xiaoping's “tour south”; an article published on the consequences of customs duties on American companies; and an opinion piece on how Hong Kong's move to Bangkok revealed China's true economic power. If you are not already a paid subscriber to Threadplease register here.

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The arguments in favor of deterrence

Xi Jinping has pledged to reunify Taiwan with mainland China by force of arms if necessary. The United States and its allies should take him at his word and take several urgent steps to convince him that such action would be a serious miscalculation. In an excerpt from his new edited volume, Matt Pottinger makes the case for deterrence.

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Overview: The Rare Earth Rumble

A trade drama in Australia presents high stakes for the West's quest to build a critical minerals supply chain independent of China. This week's infographics by Aaron McNicholas examine a group of Chinese investors attempting to expand their influence over Northern Minerals.

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A Q&A session with Jonathan Chatwin

Jonathan Chatwin is a travel writer and journalist whose previous books include Long Peace Street: a stroll through modern China and a biography of his uncle, Bruce Chatwin. In his latest book, Chatwin covers the period before and during Deng Xiaoping's famous southern tour, when the aging politician reasserted his influence on the direction of China's politics and economy, just three years after presided over the disastrous protests and massacre in Tiananmen Square. . In this week's Q&A with Andrew Peaple, he explains why the aging Chinese leaders' trip to the south in 1992 became a milestone in the country's era of reform and opening-up, and why Xi Jinping is still dealing with the consequences.

Jonathan Chatwin

Illustration by Lauren Crow

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The tariff toll

Tariffs have become a staple of U.S. policy toward China, but failing to enforce them properly creates problems for U.S. businesses. Katrina Northrop reports.

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How a move to Bangkok revealed China's economic power

Shai Oster, a strategic consultant and former Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist, lived in Hong Kong for 12 years. But, he says in this week's editorial, it wasn't until he moved to Bangkok that he finally saw how China's economic influence was expanding.

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