China's nuclear arsenal sees significant growth, report says

The expansion of China's capabilities came as SIPRI warned that although the total number of nuclear warheads in the world was falling as Cold War weapons were phased out, there was a steady increase in year by year of the number of operational warheads that could be used quickly in the event of conflict.

Approximately 2,100 deployed nuclear warheads are maintained on high operational alert for ballistic missiles and, although almost all belong to Russia or the United States, China has reportedly placed some nuclear warheads on this level of alert for first time, discovered SIPRI. .

Hans M. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the nonprofit group Federation of American Scientists and a senior fellow at SIPRI, said in a statement that China is developing its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country, but added that in almost all countries. In nuclear-armed states, there are either plans or significant willingness to increase nuclear forces.

SIPRI estimates are aligned with figures recently included in a Pentagon report to Congresswhich said China likely had more than 500 operational nuclear warheads as of May and was on track to exceed previous projections.

At a recent conference on nuclear disarmament, a senior Biden administration official warned that the United States may need to deploy a larger arsenal of nuclear weapons if rivals such as Russia and China continue on this path.

Absent a change in the trajectory of adversary arsenals, we could reach a point in the coming years where an increase over current deployed troops will be necessary, said Pranay Vaddi, a National Security Council official specializing in in nuclear weapons, during an annual meeting of the National Security Council. Arms Control Association in Washington this month.

China has maintained a relatively small arsenal of about 200 nuclear warheads for years, but it has been building up that stockpile very quickly in recent years, said Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie China and Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. who was not involved in the SIPRI research.

Beijing denies it is in the midst of a major nuclear development, but based on the current trajectory, it could have more than 700 nuclear warheads by 2027 and 1,000 by the end of the decade, Zhao said , assuming growth continues at the current rate.

The estimate for 2030 would still be less than a fifth of the current size of the U.S. inventory, which the SIPRI report said stood at 5,044 warheads in January. Russia has 5,580, according to the report.

Personally, I don't think China has made the decision to achieve nuclear parity with the United States, Zhao said. But I understand that many American experts already assume that nuclear parity is the goal of Chinese expansion.

The discreet build-up of China's nuclear arsenal comes as various conflicts continue to rage around the world, including the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. The war in Ukraine has had a negative impact on nuclear arms control negotiations and reduced the possibilities of breaking the long-standing impasse in nuclear arms control and reversing the worrying trend of nuclear-armed states. nuclear weapons to develop and deploy new weapon systems, SIPRI said in the statement. report.

Speaking at the arms control event in Washington this month, Vaddi said China along with Russia and North Korea are expanding and diversifying their nuclear arsenals at a breakneck pace, showing little or no of interest for arms control.

He added that the three countries, along with Iran, are increasingly cooperating and coordinating in ways that work against peace and stability, threaten the United States, our allies and our partners, and exacerbates regional tensions.

Among China's recent efforts is the development of a nuclear triad capability increasing its number of submarines and adding an airborne element, on top of existing land-based launch capabilities, Zhao said.

This is a major change, Zhao said, because historically China has criticized the United States and Russia for maintaining a triad.

China is also believed to have, for the first time, deployed a small number of warheads in peacetime, preparing them on missiles rather than storing them separately from vehicles capable of propelling them to a target, according to SIPRI. Of China's 500 warheads, 24 had been deployed as of January, less than 5% of its stockpile, according to the report.

For comparison, the United States had nearly half of its warheads ready, with 1,770 of the 3,708 deployed warheads in its stockpile (its inventory of 5,044 warheads includes the stockpile as well as warheads that are about to be deployed). 'be dismantled).

Zhao said it was unclear what was behind recent changes in Beijing's nuclear posture. My own research leads me to believe that China's recent nuclear expansion is not motivated by clearly defined military objectives, he said.

Rather, he said, it appears that Chinese President Xi Jinping believes that stronger strategic capabilities will impact Western perceptions of China, perhaps convincing the United States and others to deal China as an equally powerful country that deserves respect and deserves to be treated as equals.