Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim surprised many when he sought closer ties with China after taking power in 2022, aiming to boost his country's flagging economic growth.
But as Chinese Premier Li Qiang visits the Southeast Asian country this week, many in Kuala Lumpur are wondering whether Beijing is reciprocating these efforts.
The two countries will sign a memorandum of understanding on Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative and a long-delayed five-year economic cooperation plan during Li's three-day visit, which begins Tuesday, according to officials. sources close to the preparations.
But the absence of President Xi Jinping, who sent number two Li in his place, has discouraged some members of the Kuala Lumpur government, according to Malaysian officials and political observers.
Anwar went out of his way to satisfy them, and what do we get for that? » asked someone close to the Malaysian Prime Minister. Another person close to the discussions said there was initial disappointment.
Anwar, initially seen by some political observers as pro-West, encouraged warmer relations with Beijing, a stance that made Malaysia the most pro-China country among the rival claimants in the South China Sea.
In an interview this year with the Financial Times, he sharply criticized what he called widespread China phobia in the West. Why do I have to be tied to just one interest? he said.
The Malaysian prime minister visited China twice last year, Malaysia's largest trading partner. The visits resulted in memoranda of understanding for RM190 billion ($40 billion) of Chinese investment and procurement, including a refinery project, a joint venture with Chinese automaker Geely, a port expansion, an energy recovery plant project and digital economy and green technology agreements. He plans to return in November for the China International Import Expo in Shanghai, according to two sources familiar with the matter.
Anwar also praised Xi and his flagship BRI infrastructure framework, and reignited discussions of an Asian Monetary Fund, with China's renminbi as the reserve currency.
On Tuesday, ahead of Li's visit, Anwar told Chinese media that Malaysia had decided to join the Brics bloc made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, and that he expanded last year to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. . The country will begin formal procedures soon, he said.
Despite these overtures, Xi did not respond to Anwar's invitation to visit Malaysia this year for the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries, preferring to come in 2025, when Malaysia will chair the Association of Nations of Southeast Asia.
Some are disappointed, and rightly so, said Kuik Cheng-Chwee, a professor of international relations at the National University of Malaysia. I think today China takes Malaysia for granted. Some other countries in the region, such as Vietnam, have mastered the art of hedging, but Malaysia appears to be too deferential to China on many fronts.
Successive Malaysian governments have sought close economic and political ties with China since the early 1990s. China is a superpower and superpower in our region. So, like it or not, we will have to live with China, whether it is a refragmented China or a powerful and benevolent China or an imperial China, said Thomas Daniel, a senior fellow at the Institute for Strategic Studies and international centers in Kuala Lumpur. Lumpur.
The modest scope of the agreements expected to be signed by Li may not meet the high expectations raised by Anwar's efforts. The new BIS memorandum is mostly symbolic, said Ngeow Chow Bing, director of the Institute of Chinese Studies at the University of Malaysia.
As China's economy struggles with slowing growth, the money available under the BRI has dwindled, he added.
Some of Malaysia's previous bets on BRI projects have also been stalled indefinitely or canceled. A rail link between the country's underdeveloped east coast and the capital, which was to be financed and built by China, has been cut in half from its original price of $13 billion and with technical specifications far below the aftermath of a corruption scandal that toppled a former prime minister. minister.
This is one of the reasons why Anwar now prefers to focus on green and digital projects rather than investments in mega-infrastructure, said a person familiar with the discussions.
Li's visit will result in several memorandums of understanding on the green economy and digitalization, such as the development of smart cities, according to a Malaysian official involved in the discussions. Officials also expect an agreement on professional training.
The industry above all wants money [from these visits]. Malaysian businesses want more funding and commitment… But we need to create space for them to thrive, said the Malaysian official, who added that our sovereign wealth fund is not as big as theirs and it is therefore more difficult to match funds between them.
For Anwar, who failed to secure a majority among ethnic Malaysians in the last election, it is essential to demonstrate economic benefits and restore stability after five years of political upheaval in Malaysia, Kuik said.
Winning the next elections will depend on two things: the identity card and the economic performance card. The first is out of control, but the second is manageable with the help of economic powers like China.
