Donald Trump is now favored to beat Joe Biden in the 538 scheduled elections

Former President Donald Trump has taken a slight lead over President Joe Biden in presidential election predictions.

The presumptive Republican presidential nominee is expected to face incumbent President Biden in November, and polls have so far shown that the results of the 2020 White House rematch will be close, with both men statistically tied or holding only a marginal lead in a number of surveys.

But there are signs that Trump is making progress ahead of Election Day. According to a Sunday projection from poll aggregator 538, Trump wins 51 times out of 100 simulations while Biden wins 49 times out of 100.

This marks a change from April, when Project 538 was launched. Then he predicted Biden would win 58 times out of 100 and Trump would win 41 times out of 100. This lead continued until last week, when Biden was projected to win the race 53 times out of 100 to Trump's 47 times out of 100 . .

Former President Donald Trump speaks to members of the Club 47 group at the Palm Beach Convention Center on June 14, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Florida. The former president is slightly ahead of… Former President Donald Trump speaks to members of the Club 47 group at the Palm Beach Convention Center on June 14, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Florida. The former president is slightly ahead of the outgoing president five months before the presidential election. More photos by Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Newsweek reached out to representatives for Biden and Trump via email outside of normal business hours for comment on this story and will update with any response.

Simulation forecasts explore likely election outcomes based on several factors, including adjusted polling averages, economic and political indicators, and demographics.

At the same time, such predictions are important because the election will likely be determined by a handful of key states, with the Electoral College system awarding each state a certain number of votes based on its population.

A presidential candidate must receive 270 electoral votes to win, and winning the national popular vote does not guarantee success.

However, with less than five months until Election Day, it is still too early to know the results of the election and other polls suggest Biden is beating his Republican challenger.

An Echelon Insights poll released last week, for example, shows Biden gaining ground. The poll of 1,013 voters, conducted between June 10 and 12, found that if a presidential election were held today, 48% would vote for Biden while 47% would vote for Trump.

Biden and Trump are also tied in Virginia, a state that hasn't supported a Republican for president since George W. Bush in 2004.

Speaking to Newsweek, Heath Brown, an associate professor of public policy at the City University of New York, said the polls were still “evenly split.”

“I think all the polls over the last six months suggest that the country has been and will remain evenly divided,” he said. “Slight ups and downs for either candidate in a given poll are largely erased by the next round of polls.

“My conclusion is that Biden and Trump currently enjoy roughly equal support, with a significant portion of the country undecided about who they will support and whether they will show up on Election Day.”

On June 27, Biden and Trump are scheduled to face off in Atlanta for the first of two debates scheduled before the November 5 general election.

Until then, 538 will relaunch its forecast simulator daily between now and the November elections and update it based on the latest data.

Uncommon knowledge

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

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