Here's what Americans think of Biden and Trump as the election season heats up

As major party convention and presidential debate season looms, a majority of Americans are dissatisfied with either major presidential candidate, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll.

Fifty-five percent of U.S. adults said they were unhappy with the choice between the major party candidates, President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump.

It's not a happy electorate, said Lee Miringoff, who leads the Marist poll, but it is an electorate that is beginning to face the realities that these two choices are the choices from which it will have to choose.

If the November election were held today, Biden and Trump would be tied, according to this latest poll, with 49 percent of registered American voters saying they would vote for Biden and 49 percent saying they would support Trump. Half of registered independent voters said they supported Biden, giving the current president a slight 2 percentage point advantage, but one that is within the margin of error.

Graphic by Jenna Cohen/PBS News

This lack of enthusiasm for Trump or Biden could further explain why so many people feel like they have already made up their minds about how to vote, Miringoff said. As in previous polls, two-thirds of registered American voters said they know who they would vote for, and nothing can change their minds.

But in a tight race where candidates are fighting for support at the margins, the question of who gets elected in November rests with the remaining third of the country.

For these voters, the choice may come down to a handful of high-stakes issues and the perception of which candidate handles them best.

In this latest poll, 30 percent of Americans said inflation would influence their vote more than other issues ahead of this election. That's up 6 percentage points from February, despite positive economic indicators such as falling inflation, Wall Street records and low unemployment.

Graphic by Jenna Cohen/PBS News

Roughly the same number, 29 percent, say they are more concerned about preserving democracy. Another 18 percent said immigration mattered most to them. Abortion and crime, issues that Biden and Trump repeatedly referenced during their campaigns, generated some of the lowest numbers in the survey.

When American adults were wondering whether Trump or Biden would be best suited to handle these important issues:

54% said Trump on the economy 52% said Biden on preserving democracy 54% said Trump on immigration 54% said Biden on abortion

Half of Americans say they think Biden cares more about people like them, while 46% of Americans think the same about Trump.

Looking at a broader field that includes third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., 1 in 10 registered voters say they support Kennedy for president. This includes 1 in 5 independent voters.

About half of Americans think Trump should go to prison

Asked about convicting Trump on all 34 counts in his secret trial, Americans were divided on how the former president should be sentenced. About half of the 51 percent said he probably should or should serve prison time, while 47 percent said he probably should not or definitely should not serve prison time.

This poll reveals that this conviction does not seem to shake the loyal support of his base. Although a minority of Americans have a favorable impression of Trump (42%), that support is basically the same as last month (41%), before Trump's conviction. And in a matchup against Biden, he gained a point month over month.

Graphic by Jenna Cohen/PBS News

Trump's string of scandals, conviction and controversial statements on the campaign trail are failing to deter most of his supporters, Republican strategist Whit Ayres said. Trump has also made a series of racist and inflammatory statements at his presidential rallies, calling immigrants animals not humans and warning of bloodshed if he is not elected.

All of that went into the cake, he said. Donald Trump has been doing this sort of thing for eight years. This did not affect his numbers.

Americans want to see candidates debate

Biden and Trump are scheduled to meet in a debate next week and 61% of American adults say they will watch all or most of it. Twenty-four percent said they would not watch the debate, but would pay close attention to related media coverage. Fourteen percent said they would avoid the debate altogether.

Pollsters need to figure out how to reach the people they are targeting. Photo by brat82/via Adobe Trust during a survey

At best, every poll (including this one) provides a snapshot of what a group of people think about an issue. After the 2016 presidential election between Trump and Democratic candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton, the public lost confidence in polls and pollsters had to figure out why so many polls, particularly at the state level, had returned such erroneous results.

READ MORE: How to Read the Polls in 2020 and Avoid the Mistakes of 2016

In this latest poll, 61 percent of Americans said they have little or no confidence in polls.]. That includes 69 percent of independents, who were more likely than Republicans (65 percent) or Democrats (51 percent), to say they think that way.

Younger people, particularly those aged 18 to 29, are least likely to say they will watch the debate, while older people, particularly those aged 60 or older, are most likely to to look at it.

The June 27 matchup, and one of only two debates expected in this race, will help set the stage for the Republican National Convention, which will be held July 15-18 in Milwaukee. The Democratic National Convention will be held in Chicago from August 19-22.

For the two men in the spotlight, the key will be how they perform together on stage, Ayres said.

Can't Joe Biden look like a senile old man? Ayres said. Can’t Donald Trump be an obnoxious jerk?

If Trump behaves as he did during his first presidential debate with Biden during the 2020 campaign, where he spoke out about moderator Chris Wallace and was criticized for his lack of decorum, Ayres warned he would experience a serious setback for his campaign. A 2020 POLITICO/Morning Consult poll conducted a day after that debate found that a majority believed Biden had outperformed Trump.

At the same time, Ayres said that if Biden freezes or appears confused, then the pressure will increase significantly to replace him. Trump's most recent gaffe, in which he mistook the name of the doctor who administered his cognitive test while telling the story at a campaign event, occurred after that poll was carried out in the field.

PBS News, NPR and Marist Poll conducted a June 10-12 survey of 1,311 U.S. adults with a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points, 1,184 registered voters with a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points and 963 registered voters who definitely plan to vote in the November general election with a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.

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