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Iowa poll finds Trump leads Biden by double digits among likely Iowa voters – Iowa Capital Dispatch

Iowa poll finds Trump leads Biden by double digits among likely Iowa voters – Iowa Capital Dispatch
Iowa poll finds Trump leads Biden by double digits among likely Iowa voters – Iowa Capital Dispatch


Even after former President Donald Trump's criminal conviction, he leads President Joe Biden by nearly 20 percentage points among likely Iowa voters, according to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll.

The poll results, released Monday, show that 50 percent of likely Iowa voters said they would support Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee in the general election if it were held today. Biden, the incumbent president who defeated Trump in the 2020 election, had the support of 32% of likely voters.

Aside from the two major candidates, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running as an independent after failing to win the Democratic nomination against Biden, has garnered the most support. The poll found that 9% of likely voters supported Kennedy, while Libertarian presidential candidate Chase Oliver had 2% of likely voters' support. Another 3% said they would support someone else, 1% would not vote and 3% are not sure.

Trump won Iowa in the 2020 presidential election, winning 53% in the state, compared to Biden's 45%. He also won Iowa in the 2016 election with 52% to Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton's 42%. The latest poll results show Trump has a bigger lead over his Democratic opponent heading into the Nov. 5 election, by a margin of 18 percentage points. Previous Iowa polls this election cycle have shown a similar margin: Trump led Biden 48% to 33% in the March poll.

The latest findings follow Trump's criminal conviction, when a New York jury found the former president guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records related to secret payments during the 2016 election campaign .

While other polls have shown that independents and swing voters are less likely to support Trump after the verdict, the Iowa poll found that Trump remains more favorable among likely voters than Biden. The Republican presidential candidate is viewed favorably by 51% of respondents and unfavorably by 47%, while Biden is viewed favorably by 33% and unfavorably by 66%.

Compared to the March poll, more Iowa independents have a positive opinion of Trump than before: 48% of independents view him favorably, compared to 50% unfavorably, a better margin than the 42% to 53% favorable that he had obtained in the previous survey. However, Trump still has a narrower margin among independent women, with 41% saying they have a favorable opinion and 58% an unfavorable opinion.

Although he has a net positive favorability score, there is still a significant share of Iowans who strongly dislike Trump. In the poll, 37% of Iowans said they had a “very unfavorable” opinion of Trump. Biden had 50% of respondents say their feelings toward him were “very unfavorable.”

Overall, 13% of respondents have an unfavorable opinion of both presidential candidates, according to the poll. In this group of so-called “double haters,” more want to vote for Biden, 26%, than for Trump, with 16%. Among people who view Biden and Trump unfavorably, 26% support Kennedy, who held an event in April to qualify for Iowa's general election.

The Iowa poll was conducted June 9-14 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. The results are based on responses from 806 Iowa adults with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Of those respondents, 632 were likely voters, and questions directed to this group have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.




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