Is Virginia really an asset for Trump? : from the political office

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter bringing you the latest reporting and analysis from NBC News Politics teams from the campaign trail, the White House and on Capitol Hill.

In today's edition, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki explores whether Virginia, which has moved away from the GOP at the presidential level, could be competitive this fall. Plus, Katherine Koretski and national political reporter Ben Kamisar explain why Robert F. Kennedy Jr. likely won't be on the debate stage next week.

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Is Virginia really an asset for Trump? By Steve Kornacki

There are several storylines of national importance in today's Virginia primary. But when it comes to the presidential race this fall, the consensus view is that the Old Dominion will be suspense-free.

The saga of Virginia's transition from red redoubt to safe blue state is a familiar one, marked by the suburbs of Washington and Richmond and accelerated by the emergence of Donald Trump. It looked like this:

And yet, even as Trump once again leads the GOP poll, two recent polls from Fox News and Roanoke College found him tied in a head-to-head race with President Joe Biden in Virginia. When several third-party candidates were included, Biden took a 1-point lead in Fox's poll and a 2-point lead in Roanokes.

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This is obviously a limited sample of polls, and while the Trump campaign is making noise trying to bring the state into play, it has yet to demonstrate that it will back up this narrative with a full-throated push.

Still, if these early numbers showing a close race persist, the Electoral College implications would be significant.

Currently, Trump's clearest path to 270 electoral votes is to reclaim Georgia and Arizona and flip Nevada, all states with diverse populations where Trump's polling gains among non-white voters are expected to boost him . Even if he picks those three, he'll likely still need to win back one of the three Big Ten states Biden flipped in 2020, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, states with higher concentrations of white voters. But if Trump won Virginia, he could take back the White House without any of those northern states.

Of course, that's a very big if. Current polls paint a clear enough picture of why the state might be competitive. Biden's job approval stands at 43% in the Fox poll and 35% in the Roanoke survey. And when respondents in the Roanoke poll were asked how they now view the four years of Trump's presidency, 44% rated them pretty good, compared to just 25% who said the same for Biden's term.

Trump's gains among non-white voters in national polls can also be seen here. The Fox poll puts him at 25% among Black voters, up from the 10% the 2020 Virginia exit poll pegged him at. The state also has a significant population of Latinos and Asian Americans.

But when fall arrives, things could be different in Virginia. Trump himself remains extremely unpopular (a 55% unfavorable rating in the Fox poll).

And there is a higher concentration of college degrees among the state's white adult population than the national average. Not only has this demographic become increasingly Democratic of late, but they have also been intensely anti-Trump, showing up in disproportionately high levels of non-presidential elections, motivated by every opportunity to express their discontent towards the former president.

It's a trend that could help Biden outperform his poll numbers in a state like Virginia.

Why RFK Jr. likely won't join Biden and Trump in next week's debateBy Katherine Koretski and Ben Kamisar

As Biden and Trump prepare next week for their first face-off in nearly four years, there's one wild card they probably won't have to account for: a third candidate on stage.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. appears unlikely to qualify for the CNN debate when the deadline passes this week. He has yet to reach the 15% threshold in at least four approved national polls, having reached that threshold in only three so far.

But more importantly, Kennedy is almost guaranteed to fail to meet the network's ballot entry criteria, because qualifying in enough states to win 270 electoral votes is a herculean task for a candidate not from a major party at this early stage in the electoral calendar. And on top of that, Kennedy's campaign did not submit its ballot access petitions at the pace necessary to secure voting slates by the June 20 deadline, although it clearly made progress toward qualifying for the next debate in the fall.

That means Kennedy is almost certain to watch the debate between Biden and Trump next Thursday from the sidelines, depriving independents of earned media and a chance to elevate his campaign in the long run. Instead, Kennedy appears ready to leverage his omission to claim that elections are rigged against political outsiders. His campaign raised $100,000 in national television advertising on the day of the debate.

Kennedy faces an uphill battle to gain ballot access in all 50 states before November, but at a campaign event in Albuquerque, New Mexico, this weekend he said he would be on on the ballot across the country within four weeks.

The independent candidate has already qualified to appear on ballots in nine states, accounting for 139 electoral votes, according to NBC News analysis and interviews with state officials. Her campaign claims it has also gathered enough signatures to exceed the requirements outlined in CNN's criteria, but in many cases the signatures have not been officially submitted for verification, a process that can take weeks (or even more).

In some states, the windows to submit these signatures are not even open yet. Which is why the debate window is closing on Kennedy, awaiting last-minute legal action from state bureaucrats.

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Today's headlines Voters are casting their votes: It's primary day in Virginia and Oklahoma (and primary runoff day in Georgia). Here's what to watch as the polls close, and you can follow NBC News' coverage all night on our live blog. Immigration Initiative: The Biden administration is taking executive action to protect undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens, a measure that would protect approximately 500,000 immigrants from deportation. Read more Ethics investigation: The House Ethics Committee continues to investigate Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida over allegations that he engaged in illegal drug use and sexual misconduct. Gaetz has denied the allegations and called the investigation frivolous. Read more Taxist: Trump's 2017 tax cuts, which expire in 2025, are becoming a campaign hot spot. Biden wants to end it for those earning more than $400,000, while Trump promises even deeper cuts. Meanwhile, Trump's plan to end taxes on tips has drawn mixed reactions from Republicans. Viral Videos: Misleading videos about Biden are going viral as Republicans attempt to take certain clips of Biden out of context to answer voters' questions about the president's age. Read more More controversial comments: The Washington Post investigates North Carolina's GOP gubernatorial candidate and Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson's comments downplaying high-profile assault and domestic violence allegations. Read more Moms Have It: New York Court of Appeals Declines to Hear Trump's Appeal of Remaining Hush Money Case in Which He Was Convicted guilty last month. Learn more Another spotlight: Former swimming greats Michael Phelps and Allison Schmitt will testify before Congress on the need for strict anti-doping measures at the upcoming Paris Olympics. Learn more

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