Pakistani man causes trouble in Jammu region

The lingering question is whether Pakistan is actually succeeding in its efforts

There has been an undeniable attempt to increase terrorist activities in Jammu and Kashmir, compared to the situation not so long ago. The Pakistan Army may have had to divert its attention from the fact that former Prime Minister Imran Khan posed a threat to it. Even after the elections, Islamabad reeled without a clear majority. Such an ambiguous situation had arisen even after Imran was rendered non-functional by his incarceration. However, after building a coalition through coercion and dubious means, the military was able to establish the appearance of a democratically elected government while continuing to pull the strings from behind.

However, amid the political turmoil that rocked the country ahead of the elections, another significant change has become clear in Pakistan: the erosion of the Pakistani people's confidence in their military. As the army's capabilities came under scrutiny, the old strategy had to be revisited, leading to a shift in focus towards the Indian side of the Line of Control. The general elections presented a tempting opportunity for the Pakistan Army to create unrest in J&K. The potential for disruptive activities appeared significant. With local elections approaching in the Union Territory, the likelihood of such activities is not unexpected. The question that remains, however, is whether Pakistan is actually succeeding in its efforts.

Terrorism surge in Jammu region

There has been a worrying increase in terrorist activities in the Jammu region, with twenty-six attacks since 2019, including five in just over a month. These attacks resulted in the tragic death of 10 civilians and 1 CRPF jawan, and injuries to over 40 civilians and 7 SF jawans. Recent attacks include:

Attack on an Air Force vehicle on May 4 Attack on a pilgrimage bus near Shiv Khori in Reasi on June 9 Attack in Hiranagar, Kathua on June 11 Attack on an army post at Chattargala on the Bharwah-road Pathankot on the night of June 11 Attack on SOG vehicle at Gundoh in Doda on June 12

Analyzed, the sudden increase in terrorist attacks provides insight into a new strategy adopted by the Pakistan Army. The success of our forces in counter-terrorism operations also provides some indicators:

Jammu was specifically targeted instead of Kashmir. Groups operating in J&K have been given instructions to maintain peace in Kashmir. Due to dwindling local support, accurate information about terrorists is available in Kashmir, which has recently led to the assassination of terrorist leaders and foreign terrorists in North and South Kashmir. Available information also indicates that Jaish-e-Mohammed is actively expanding its numbers in Kashmir while focusing on Jammu. This strategic move indicates a broader plan to destabilize the region in the coming days. There are also reports of terrorists planning attacks on the Amarnath Yatra in the Jammu region.

It appears that Pakistan's GHQ/ISI is preparing to intervene in the parliamentary elections in J&K. This threat requires a comprehensive and targeted counterterrorism operation in the run-up to the elections. The situation calls for a unified and synergistic security response in the region. However, it is essential to objectively assess the success of Pakistan's new strategy before implementing a counter-strategy.

The success of Pakistan's new strategy is questionable

It is essential to look at some statistics to assess the success of Pakistan's new strategy before we can say that there is an increase in terrorist operations despite the vigilance of the military along the fence and counter-terrorism operations in the rear. -country :

The death toll exceeded 1,000 for 17 consecutive years, between 1990 and 2006. In 2001, at the height of terrorism, 4,021 lives were lost in a single year, an average of nearly 11 deaths every day of the year. 'year. Terrorism-related deaths have increased from several thousand each year to a total of 134 in 2023, including 87 terrorists. A closer comparison is more revealing. Between January 1 and June 14, 2024, a total of 32 deaths were recorded in J&K, including 17 civilians, two SF personnel and 13 terrorists. During the same period in 2023, 39 deaths were recorded in the Union Territory, including nine civilians, 12 SF personnel, 17 civilians and one in the unspecified category.

The data clearly shows that despite Pakistan's strategy to increase levels of violence ahead of possible elections, there has been little appreciable success that can be attributed to them. However, as elections draw closer in the Union Territory, the potential threat of increased levels of violence becomes great. Jaish-e-Mohammed focusing on its recruitment is an obvious precursor to implementing such a strategy. Pakistan's failure to properly develop its resources in the valley or the Jammu region, to date, is a matter of concern. The Indian army's counter-insurgency grid, however, retains its power and bite.

Despite the success of our security forces in combating terrorist activities, the risks facing the military in the coming months are considerable. Additional troops need to be deployed in J&K to maintain suppression of terrorist networks. Furthermore, if Assembly elections are held, it is imperative that Kashmiris are able to exercise their right to vote without fear or hindrance.

BharatShakti Team

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