Politics
How climate change is shaping the UK electoral landscape
The manifestos are in and British voters face clear blue water when it comes to climate action in the general election.
Parties of the left and center have prioritized tackling the climate crisis, integrating the transition to net zero emissions into their visions of economic renewal and tackling the high cost of oil and gas as a root cause of the cost of living crisis.
Labor, leading the polls and leading the Conservatives by around 20 points, has prioritized the green industrial revolution in its capital spending plans. They pledged to create Great British Energy and a National Wealth Fund to help make the UK a clean energy superpower. The Liberal Democrats' manifesto also sets out impressive commitments to accelerate the transition to net zero, including free insulation and heat pumps for low-income households. The Green Party has committed to introducing a wealth tax to help finance an even more ambitious and rapid transition.
Meanwhile, the right-wing parties of British politics tell a very different story. Despite warnings from climate scientists that global warming has reached dramatic and devastating new heights over the past year, the Conservative agenda constitutes the weakest bid yet for climate action.
While Theresa May introduced the net zero emissions target by 2050 and Boris Johnson was keen to focus on the huge economic opportunities linked to the global race to net zero emissions, Rishi Sunak chose to downplay the economic benefits of transition and focus on cost instead. This should have been the election in which parties competed to be the most ambitious on net zero emissions policy. Instead, we had the most contentious climate debate yet.
This debate began in September last year. Much to the surprise of moderate conservatives, Sunak, influenced by his Australian political adviser Isaac Levido, focused on this new narrative on the cost of net zero and weakened several major climate policies, including delaying the ban on new cars to fossil fuels from 2030 to 2035 and removing proposed climate change regulations. landlords to insulate tenants’ homes. The move was heavily criticized by a furious business community at the time.
Despite the failure of this new negative framework to reverse the Conservative Party's falling poll numbers, Rishi Sunak continued to promote this narrative in the run-up to May's local elections. This contributed to local elections being wiped out, with mayors and councilors pushing for more climate action winning. That didn't stop Rishi Sunak from continuing to spread the same message during the general election campaign.
Reform UK launched its Contract with the British People this week, setting out the most retrograde and regressive policy position on climate change we have seen in the UK in decades. Their position is one of categorical denial of climate change, advocating the elimination of the UK's net zero target and an end to support for renewable energy. It's a manifesto for high energy bills, economic decline and climate catastrophe.
As shocking as it is to see a political party adopt such a scientifically and economically irresponsible position, we know where it comes from. Coziing up to Donald Trump and his fossil fuel cronies, Farage is attempting to fuel a culture war over climate change, shattering a previous cross-party climate consensus. The space for UK reform on this issue was opened by Sunak, who provided oxygen and political cover by focusing on the costs of net zero himself.
Their efforts risk being treated with contempt by British voters. Polls indicate that voters across party lines in marginal seats want ambitious action to combat climate change. They acknowledge that skyrocketing energy bills in recent years are due to gas prices, not net zero policies. Even a recent poll of British Reform voters shows that a the majority of them want cross-party consensus on maximizing investment in renewable energy.
In the Blue Wall constituencies, 9 out of 10 voters want to see a seamless exceptional tax on the profits of fossil fuel giants, which made record profits during the cost of living crisis as energy prices and fuel poverty soared. Yet one DeSmog survey found that climate science deniers, fossil fuel and pollution interests donated 2.3 million to Reform UK, or 92% of their donations, and gave 8.4 million to the Conservative Party. This financial influence partly explains why both parties have taken such a skeptical stance on climate action, even though it is at odds with many of their supporters. This highlights the corrupting influence of fossil fuel money on politics.
Attempts to use climate change as a weapon of political division will almost certainly backfire in the next election. Downplaying the benefits of net zero and ignoring the costs of maintaining fossil fuels misleads voters and shows contempt for the electorate. At the same time, a strong result for parties supporting an ambitious transition would provide a clear mandate for much more ambitious climate action. The transition to net zero emissions in the UK could be about to accelerate.
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