Russia-North Korea defense deal a new headache for China

In the competition for global narratives, China has sought to present itself as a peaceful nation opposed to the division of the world into rival camps. On the other hand, he accuses the United States of building alliances that will lead the world towards a new Cold War.

Yet the mutual defense treaty between Russia and North Korea, which calls for both countries to provide each other with immediate military assistance in the event of war, is exactly the kind of bloc-building that China has charged the United States with . China's closest strategic partner and only conventional allies, Russia and North Korea, are now the ones increasing the risk of a Cold War-style confrontation in Northeast Asia.

The deal also creates more problems for Beijing by appearing to reinforce the appearance of a trilateral axis between China, Russia and North Korea, which China has sought to avoid. Beijing has carefully stayed away from the optics of a China-Russia-North Korea axis, said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington. He wants to keep his options open.

Japan, South Korea and the United States may now decide that the threat posed by a defense treaty between Russia and North Korea requires them to strengthen their own security posture, announced last year at Camp David , increasing troop levels or strengthening defenses along China's periphery.

For these reasons, China's top leader, Xi Jinping, may not welcome the burgeoning affair between Russian President Vladimir V. Putin and Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea. Meeting in Pyongyang on Wednesday, Mr Putin and Mr Kim hailed the defense deal as the start of a new era in their relations.

The deal also revealed the limits of partnerships between China and the two countries, analysts say.

Mr Xi declared a no-holds-barred relationship with Mr Putin and pledged unwavering support for North Korea, linking arms with two like-minded authoritarian countries to fight what they see as US bullying in the world.

But by aligning himself with two pariah states, Mr. Xi also risks suffering the consequences of the unpredictable actions of their leaders. Mr Putin's invasion of Ukraine has seriously damaged China's relations with the West, which has accused Beijing of not doing enough to rein in Russia. And Mr. Kim's nuclear saber rattling has helped bring two tense neighbors, Japan and South Korea, closer together in a trilateral defense partnership with the United States.

There are already widespread fears that Russia could provide North Korea with technology to bolster Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program in exchange for munitions for use in Ukraine.

Mr Xi cannot afford more surprises at a time when he needs to turn around China's ailing economy. Despite his increasingly hostile tone toward the West, Mr. Xi remains committed to maintaining China's position in the current global economic order.

The new pact between Putin and Kim is not good news for Beijing, said John Delury, a professor of Chinese studies at Yonsei University in Seoul. Xi Jinping has never had an easy relationship with the powerful Korean dynasty and now has growing reason to worry that Putin is encouraging Kim's aggressive tendencies.

Between the war in Ukraine and the risk of conflict on the Korean Peninsula, Mr. Delury said, Putin and Kim are forces of instability at a time when China enjoys an orderly environment.

China has sought to distance itself from the new deal, with a Foreign Ministry spokesperson declining to comment on Thursday, saying it was an issue between Russia and North Korea.

In reality, the Russia-North Korea treaty, coupled with the alliance between the United States, Japan and South Korea, has significantly exacerbated the risk of confrontation, rivalry or conflict in the region, according to China , said Shi Yinhong, head of international relations. professor at Renmin University in Beijing.

Shi said peace on the Korean Peninsula is a top priority for China and the growing militarization of the region puts one of China's vital interests at stake.

China still holds considerable influence over Russia and North Korea. The United States argues that the Kremlin would not be able to continue its war in Ukraine if China did not purchase massive amounts of Russian oil or supply Russia with consumer goods and dual-use technologies, like chips and machine tools, to power his war machine. At the same time, North Korea depends on China for virtually all its trade, particularly food and energy.

This influence over Moscow and Pyongyang has increased Beijing's importance at times when other countries have called on China to use its influence, unsuccessfully, to curb North Korea's nuclear development or Russia's war. in Ukraine.

But Mr. Putin's courting of Mr. Kim creates a new competitor for Beijing's influence over North Korea, creating a boon for Kim and a headache for Xi Jinping, said Danny Russell, a diplomacy analyst and in security at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

What is important for Pyongyang is that the partnership with Putin, while not limitless, generates valuable leverage against Beijing, Mr. Russell said. Pitching great powers against each other is a classic game of Korean history, and North Korea's massive dependence on China in recent decades has been a liability that Kim Jong-un is wanting to reduce.

The dashboard shows that North Korea is by far the biggest gainer, with China potentially the biggest loser, he added.

Keeping the Kim regime in power is a priority for Beijing to preserve a buffer between China's border and U.S.-led forces stationed in South Korea.

China and North Korea officially say they are as close as lips and teeth, but relations between the two neighbors have long been strained, mixed with mutual distrust and shared interests.

Since coming to power in 2011, Mr. Kim has made China uncomfortable by rapidly increasing the number of missile tests and expanding North Korea's nuclear weapons program. Mr Xi initially refused to meet Mr Kim. It was only when President Trump announced his intention to meet with the North Korean dictator that Mr. Xi changed course, eventually speaking with Mr. Kim in 2018, before and after the summit with Mr. Trump .

Mr Xi may now feel obliged to meet Mr Kim again, said Victor D.Chaprofessor of government and international affairs at Georgetown University and the Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, because Xi cannot afford to let Putin display all this influence over his neighbor.

The growing rapprochement between Russia and North Korea could further prompt China to attempt to repair and stabilize its relations with South Korea.

On the same day Mr. Putin and Mr. Kim met in Pyongyang, Chinese diplomats and military officials met their South Korean counterparts in Seoul. China wants to drive a wedge between Washington and Seoul in hopes of weakening South Korea's military alignment with the United States.

At the meeting, according to Chinese state media on Wednesday, Beijing said the priority on the Korean Peninsula should be to calm tensions and avoid steps that could escalate confrontation. Language vague enough that it could be read as criticism of the United States or the Russia-North Korea pact. Despite its alliance with the North, Beijing has sought to present itself as a neutral actor in the conflict, saying it has always determined its position based on the rights and wrongs of the issue itself.

Olivia Wang contributed reporting from Hong Kong.