Why presidents often struggle in their first re-election debates and how Biden is preparing

Life as commander in chief takes place “in a sort of protected bubble,” says Alan Schroeder, a historian of the presidential debate. “People have been saying 'Mr. President' for four years,” one Democratic strategist said.

Next comes the first debate of a re-election campaign when the shock of a personal confrontation with a hungry opponent has for decades led presidents to lose or perform poorly in that initial confrontation, casting doubt on their chances of winning. obtain a second term.

It's a trend that President Joe Biden will work to curtail next week when he and former President Donald Trump meet in Atlanta for their CNN debate, while Trump will try to push Biden back like so many challengers before him.

In interviews, a half-dozen former campaign officials and debate experts explained why so many incumbents tend to stumble in early debates and how they think Biden can avoid those pitfalls. As debate preparations intensify, a Biden campaign official cast doubt on the idea that the historical trend would apply to Biden, who has often gotten into confrontations over Trump and forcefully denounced him .

The official said the campaign couldn't imagine a world in which Biden would expect deference from Trump in a debate.

In a statement, Trump senior adviser Jason Miller said Trump would be ready for the debate, criticizing Biden's preparations as being timed for confrontation by advisers and saying Trump was doing many tough interviews every week and speaking out long standing rally speeches.

“Uncomfortable”, “disconcerted”, “embarrassed”

President Jimmy Carter was widely seen as having botched his first and only debate against Ronald Reagan in 1980.

“Are you better off than you were four years ago?” Reagan challenged voters on what became a damaging theme for Carter's campaign.

Historically difficult early debate performances by outgoing presidents are due to the fact that they have been the subject of deference in the Oval Office, experts say.

Once the president is in office, and especially after four years in office, he is in a sort of protected bubble where he doesn't hear a lot of conflicting information, said Schroeder, who wrote a book on the history of presidential debates.

An incumbent on the debate stage may need some sort of transition to become a normal citizen again, he said.

Samuel Popkin, who played Reagan during Carter's debate preparations, said: “Every president thinks: I know how to run a presidential campaign because I won one a few years ago.

Popkin studied Reagan's remarks and wrote a memo on how to deflate his stories. But when it came to rehearsing a debate with Popkin playing Reagan, Carter was so uncomfortable and embarrassed, Popkin said.

Popkin described the tense rehearsal in his book, The Candidate, writing that Carter was baffled and suggested stopping after just 11 minutes of practice.

The president looked alone and vulnerable when he heard Reagan's criticism in front of his wife, his closest friends and his entourage, Popkin wrote.

Four years later, Reagan was the incumbent president facing criticism, with the New York Times reporting that his advisers found him to be on the defensive.

Schroeder said: Even Bill Clinton, who was a very good debater, his first debate against Bob Dole in 1996 as the incumbent president was not, by any means, his finest moment.

Former campaign officials have stressed the need for incumbents to draw contrasts with their challengers, rather than simply defending their results.

“Usually, incumbents have, in some ways, the toughest job, because they're defending the record of the session,” said Sara Fagen, who worked on President George W. Bush's 2004 re-election campaign. .

Voters thought Democratic candidate John Kerry won the first debate against Bush by about 2 to 1, according to a Pew Research Center poll.

John Kerry and George Bush during a presidential debate in Coral Gables, Florida, in 2004. Ron Edmonds/AP

In a poll question asking voters to use one word to describe the candidates' performance, the most negative word for Bush was “defensive.”

“For most incumbents, the election should be a choice, not a referendum,” Fagen said.

President Barack Obama faced a similar reckoning in preparation for the 2012 debate.

“If it's a referendum on the incumbent president, the incumbent usually loses,” Jim Messina, Obama's 2012 campaign manager, told Obama. “If there is a choice between the two candidates, you will win.

Messina said he asked Obama “not to chase rabbits,” that is, not to fall into a hole to defend himself. He said Obama was defensive during several questions in his first 2012 debate against Republican nominee Mitt Romney.

About two-thirds of voters thought Romney outperformed Obama in the first debate, according to CNN and Pew polls.

Despite Obama's preparation, he “was rusty,” Schroeder said. “He just seemed a little uncomfortable with the whole exercise.”

After the first debate, Messina said, Obama was “much more focused.”

“The president ruined one of the last debate sessions before the first debate,” Messina said. “He certainly didn’t do that after the first debate.”

Mitt Romney and Barack Obama during the second presidential debate in Hempstead, New York, in 2012. Timothy A. Clary / AFP via Getty Images file

Messina remembers seeing a video of himself in the film room after the second debate with a “glow about me.”

“I look like a 10-year-old boy who just got free beer for the first time because I was so happy, because he had just driven the narrative of choice over and over again,” Messina said.

The Biden campaign also appears to be interested in the choice narrative, providing insight into Biden's debate preparation by noting that he “has become increasingly forceful in his recent remarks about Trump and plans to continue this theme in the debate, while projecting himself as the wise and constant”. leader, unlike the chaos and division of Trump.

Just a week before the first debate, the Biden campaign announced a $50 million ad campaign, part of which will go toward TV spots contrasting the Biden and Trump personas.

Challenges

Next month's debate occupies a unique place in history, not only because of its unprecedented early timing. This will be the first time that two candidates who have occupied the Oval Office will face each other. And it's unclear how much the debates alone will change voting preferences in November.

“Ultimately, it was very difficult for anyone to demonstrate that performance in the presidential debates changed voters' preferences,” said Lynn Vavreck, a professor of American politics and public policy at UCLA.

Fagen said voters by November are already entrenched. She said this debate “probably matters more than more recent elections, just because of the dynamics of the race,” highlighting each candidate's challenges and the fact that both have held the presidency.

Biden and Trump are neck and neck, poll shows. There is also a wide range of ideologically diverse voters who dislike both candidates but might choose one in the fall.

The close nature of the race means that a debate does not need to move a large portion of the electorate to have a notable impact.

“When you find yourself in situations where you're talking about a few critical votes, everything can be crucial,” Vavreck said.

Sources 1/ https://Google.com/ 2/ https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/presidents-often-struggle-first-re-election-debates-biden-getting-read-rcna156750 The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos