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Here's who's leading Trump against. Biden Election Polls

Here's who's leading Trump against.  Biden Election Polls
Here's who's leading Trump against.  Biden Election Polls

 



Top line

President Joe Biden is leading or tied with former President Donald Trump in a series of new nationwide surveys that indicate Trump's advantage in the polls has diminished since his conviction in Manhattan last month ( although it maintains an advantage in the very important key states).

Trump and Biden remain virtually tied, as Trump's lead in early polls slips

AFP via Getty Images Key Facts

Biden leads Trump by two points in a Fox News survey released Wednesday, a three-point change from the networks' May survey among a series of five polls since mid-June that show Biden beating or tied with Trump .

Biden is up one point over Trump in the weekly Morning Consults survey for the second straight week after trailing Trump for a month, and Trump and Biden are tied in an Economist/YouGov survey released Thursday.

The two are tied in a PBS/Marist poll released Tuesday that found Trump lost six points with independents compared to the group's May survey before his conviction, while Biden gained eight points and now leads Trump two points among independents; the Fox poll also shows Biden leading by nine points among independents.

Thirty-two percent of independents said they were less likely to support Trump after he was convicted in Manhattan last month on 34 counts of falsifying business records, according to a Politico/Ipsos poll released Monday which found that 33% of voters overall said they were less likely. to support Trump, including 9% of Republicans.

A June Times/Siena survey also found that Trump's lead narrowed by one point and Biden's lead increased by one point among the same group of 2,000 voters surveyed in April and May, before Trump was only convicted last month by a Manhattan jury, although Trump still leads Biden. % to 46%, according to the survey.

Polls consistently show that conviction is not a priority for most voters when deciding who to vote for in November. The Politico/Ipsos poll found that 53% said it was not important to their decision to vote, while 61% of respondents in a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week said it would not matter. no impact on their vote, but that in a race that remains marginally close, the slightest change in voters' opinions could have an impact on the outcome in November.

A CBS/YouGov poll released June 9 also found that the majority, 55 percent, of likely voters said Trump's conviction was not a factor in their voting decision, and that six other issues, including economy, crime and borders, exceeded condemnation by double-digit margins. in terms of importance to voters.

Large number

0.8. That's the number of percentage points by which Trump leads Biden in a head-to-head matchup, according to the Real Clear Politics poll.

Chief Spokesperson

Biden and top Democrats sought to capitalize on Trump's conviction, reminding voters that he was a convicted felon in dozens of interviews or public statements following the verdict. The Biden campaign launched a $50 million television ad campaign in battleground states Monday that tells viewers the election is between a convicted felon, who is only out for himself, and a president who fights for his family.

To monitor

In the seven key states that will likely decide the election — Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — all narrowly won in 2020 except North Carolina, polls consistently show Trump leads Biden. A May Cook Political Report poll found Trump up three points on average in all seven states, a May Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll found Trump leading Biden by four points overall in battleground states and a April New York Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer poll. found that Trump would beat Biden in five of six swing states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia and Nevada), except Wisconsin.

Surprising fact

In such a tight race, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has the potential to influence the election through his independent candidacy, although it is not clear in whose favor. A May Emerson poll found Trump widening his lead over Biden, from two points to five, with Kennedy Jr., West and Stein in the mix. Kennedy received 6% support, while 10% of voters said they were undecided. A May Fox poll shows Trump's lead increasing by two points with all three independents on the ballot. The Times/Siena/Inquirer investigation found that Kennedy Jr. is drawing votes from Biden's core supporters. Kennedy has the support of just 10% of voters in six battleground states in a five-way contest, but support is as high as 18% for voters aged 18 to 29 and 14% for Hispanic voters. And a recent CAPS/Harris poll from Harvard shows that Trump's five-point lead remains unchanged with Kennedy Jr. on the ballot. Meanwhile, an April NBC poll found Biden trailing Trump by two points in a head-to-head race, but beating him by two with Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates on the ballot.

Contra

Polls appear to be skewed toward Trump by disengaged voters who may not participate in the 2024 election, according to a New York Times analysis that found Biden leading the last three Times/Siena polls among voters in 2020, but lagging among registered voters overall.

Tangent

Polls have consistently suggested that Biden and the Democratic Party as a whole are losing support among some key demographic groups, including Black, Latino and younger voters. A May NPR/PBS/Marist survey found that young voters under 45 prefer Biden over Trump by just four points and that Biden leads by six points among Gen Z/Millennials in a head-to-head matchup, but the vote leans in Trump's favor among both groups (by six points among Gen Z/Millennials and eight among voters under 45) with third-party candidates in the mix. The April Times/Siena/Inquirer poll also found that Biden is tied with Trump among Hispanic voters in all six battleground states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada) and trails him by four points in these states among 18- to 29-year-olds, two groups that voted for Biden with more than 60% support in 2020, according to the Times. Biden also appears to be losing support in Democratic strongholds, like New York, where he gained nine points over Trump, according to a May Siena College survey, after beating Trump there by 23 points in 2020.

Key context

Biden and Trump are set for a historic rematch after clinching their respective parties' nominations in March, ending the primary season much earlier in the year than in previous elections. Polls show historically low enthusiasm, with both candidates having relatively low favorability ratings, below 45%. The NBC poll found that 64% of voters said they were very interested in this year's election, a 20-year low. Trump has focused his campaign on his legal problems, accusing prosecutors and judges in his criminal cases of working at Biden's behest to hurt his chances of winning the election, although there is no evidence to suggest that this notion is true. Biden, meanwhile, cast Trump as a threat to democracy, citing his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riots, and hammered Trump over the nomination of Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn of Roe v. Wade. Polls show the economy, immigration, abortion and inflation are consistently top issues for voters, while the Times/Siena/Inquirer survey finds a majority trust Trump over to Biden to manage the economy, crime and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but trusts Biden more than Biden. Trump on abortion.

Further reading

These are the six swing states Trump must take from Biden to win in November (Forbes)

RFK Jr. candidacy hurts Trump more than Biden, poll finds (Forbes)

Biden Gaining Ground Over Trump in Swing States, New Poll Shows: It's Latest Survey Showing Positive Signs for Biden (Forbes)

Trump-Biden 2024 polls: here's who will win in the 6 states that will decide the election (Forbes)

Post-Trump condemnation polls show warning signs. Most independents think Trump should drop out (Forbes)

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/06/20/biden-vs-trump-2024-election-polls-trumps-post-conviction-losing-streak-continues/

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