Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to North Korea marked a rare trip abroad and only his second trip to the country in his 24 years in power. The two leaders signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement that includes a mutual assistance clause in the event of an attack by either country.
Deepening ties between Russia and North Korea have has caused significant concern in the United States regarding the potential impact on the war in Ukraine and security on the Korean Peninsula.
But the rapprochement between Moscow and Pyongyang has also sparked mixed feelings in Beijing, as it creates new uncertainty for China. Despite being North Korea's neighbor, economic lifeline, and formal ally, China's relations with North Korea are far from close, as recent developments indicate.
North Korea's condemnation of a joint statement by South Korea, Japan and China in their first trilateral summit since 2019 was seen as a rare rebuke of China. The statement mentions the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
Pyongyang's provocative actions around the same time further demonstrate its dissatisfaction with the summit. It is notable that the Kim regime chose to launch a military spy satellite into orbit in a major diplomatic initiative involving China. The last time North Korea clearly sought to embarrass China was shortly before the first Belt and Road Forum in Beijing in 2017. May 2017, when it carried out a missile launch from a base near the Chinese border. Since then, regional dynamics have changed considerably.
After hitting their lowest point in decades in 2017relations between China and North Korea began to improve significantly after the first meeting between Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un in March 2018. Although they have met five times since then, their relations have not returned to normal. as narrow as lips and teeth, as once described. by Mao Zedong.
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, North Korea has closed all its borders and halted virtually all trade, including with its largest trading partner, China. It was not until April 2024 that China carried out a high-level visit to North Korea with Zhao Lejithird highest-ranking Chinese official, heading the delegation.
The visit came amid growing international concern over North Korea, which has stepped up its aggressive rhetoric and military missile testing activities. In early 2024, Kim Jong Un announced a major policy shift towards South Korea, ruling out any possibility of a peaceful reunification of Korea and thus signaling his preference for hostility over reconciliation. In 2022, North Korea experienced an unprecedented year of missile testing, and in 2023 it successfully launched a military spy satellite into space with Russian assistance.
Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia's isolation from the West has led to a deepening of relations between Moscow and Pyongyang, resulting in increased military cooperation between the two states. It is believed that in exchange for large quantities of North Korean munitions and ballistic missiles for Russia's war in Ukraine, Moscow is providing North Korea with military technology, thereby increasing Pyongyang's military capabilities. Newly close relations between North Korea and Russia pose a serious challenge to the West in Europe and Northeast Asia.
Beijing, a key partner of Pyongyang and Moscow, has refrained from commenting on these recent developments. However, the Chinese media were quick to blame the United States, claiming that its hostile policy has brought Russia and North Korea closer together, thus compromising the security situation in both regions. China's portrayal of the United States as the main instigator of the tensions reflects China's belief that Washington is its greatest threat and enemy, not Pyongyang.
In response to North Korea's growing nuclear and missile capabilities, the United States has increased military cooperation with South Korea and Japan, much to China's dismay. Beijing has long accused Washington of using the North Korean nuclear issue as a pretext to expand its military presence in the region, thereby further exacerbating tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Most thinkers on Chinese foreign policy believe this is Washington's overall goal. It is not a question of deterring North Korea but of containing China.
Given that China views its foreign policy through the prism of its broader rivalry with the United States, both in Asia and globally, it is highly Beijing is unlikely to exert pressure on North Korea or Russia to resolve conflicts in Northeast Asia or Europe. For China, the Kim regime remains an important buffer zone against increasing encirclement by the United States and its allies, while Russia serves as an important ally in countering a US-led global order.
However, Beijing's choice not to intervene could, in the long term, harm its own strategic interests. By remaining on the sidelines as ties between Russia and North Korea strengthen, China risks exacerbating tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
With Russia's help, the Kim regime could accelerate the development of its nuclear capabilities. This could lead to a stronger response from the United States and, in a worst-case scenario for Beijing, lead to the formation of what the Chinese call a US-led Asian NATO aimed at China.
Furthermore, an emboldened North Korea increases the possibility of more aggressive and provocative behavior, possibly by intensifying its weapons testing or, more worryingly, conducting a seventh nuclear test. This would inevitably put China in a position where it would be exposed to an escalation of conflicts that it would prefer to avoid. As a result, Beijing would face intense international pressure, including from the United States, to take a tougher stance against the Kim regime.
The Trump administration is a stark reminder of how tensions on the Korean Peninsula could exacerbate existing bilateral frictions and spill over into other areas of China-US relations. In 2017, China's perceived inaction on North Korea became closely linked to US concerns about its trade practicesultimately leading to a trade war and sanctions that continue to this day.
China's long-standing strategic priority of maintaining stability rather than pursuing denuclearization has allowed North Korea to develop its nuclear capabilities to such an extent that it has become very difficult to halt its advance. Officially, China has always adhered to the three principles: no war, no instability and no nuclear weapons. reflecting the order of its priorities regarding the Korean peninsula. But it has become clear over time that it is impossible to pursue all three goals simultaneously, because the first two end up undermining the third, and vice versa. Beijing is well aware of this that without denuclearization, it will be impossible to achieve peace and maintain lasting stability on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia. In this regard, the growing relations between Pyongyang and Moscow have intensified China's dilemma.
As global politics is increasingly defined as a struggle between democracy and authoritarianism, there is a tendency to view the growing ties between Russia and North Korea as part of the formation of a trilateral axis with China, aimed at countering the United States, Japan and South Korea. . Beijing has denounced this narrative as a return to Cold War mentality and bloc politics, accusing the United States of trying to divide the region along ideological lines in order to build an anti-China front. Chinese leaders are particularly concerned about Japan and South Korea's growing trilateral coordination and cooperation with the United States.
Rather than antagonizing its neighbors, Beijing has every interest in improving its relations with Seoul and Tokyo in order to reduce friction and counterbalance American influence. Economic cooperation and trade are seen as crucial to boosting China's post-pandemic economic recovery and maintaining regional peace and stability. Nonetheless, North Korea remains a thorny issue and its provocative actions are disrupting China's efforts to forge a more cooperative environment in Northeast Asia.
Despite Beijing's economic and diplomatic support for Pyongyang, they are anything but close friends. The very fact that Kim's first overseas trip after the pandemic took place in Russia rather than China raises questions about the current state of their relationship. While Kim Jong Un has now held two summits with Putin in less than a year, Xi Jinping has not met the North Korean leader since 2019.
Additionally, North Korea's efforts to further strengthen ties with Iran alleviate your isolation, signaling a strategic attempt to diversify its alliances and strengthen its nuclear and ballistic missile cooperation. These new dynamics considerably complicate China's balancing act in the region.