Reviews | Who will win the debate between Biden and Trump? Here's how to find out.

If you're a typical American voter in any party, let me let you in on a little secret: What matters most to you in a presidential debate is probably not the same thing that gets the most attention candidates, campaigns and their allies. in the aftermath of these major televised confrontations.

I learned this from studying American reactions to almost every general election presidential debate since 1992. I have sat with small groups of voters selected from thousands of undecided voters nationwide, watching more than two dozen presidential and vice presidential debates in real time, and it always amazes me that tiny moments, verbal errors, and failures to remember small details can matter so much in the spin room and for partisan experts subsequently. Yet these things often have little or no discernible impact on the opinions of many people watching at home.

To be honest, some of the debates I watched with voters, like Bill Clinton and Bob Doles in 1996, didn't have a major impact on voter sentiment. Others, like the three-way town hall debate with Mr. Clinton, George H. W. Bush and Ross Perot in 1992 and the first George W. Bush-Al Gore debate in 2000 and the three collisions between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, have undoubtedly changed history.

As the first scheduled debate between President Biden and Mr. Trump takes place this Thursday, the key moments that will have the biggest impact on remaining undecided voters are those where the candidates attack each other to define the means or undermine the arguments policies that everyone wants. to present to the Americans. Viewers will quickly decide whether the accusations are fair and the responses effective. By Ronald Reagans Are you better off than you were four years ago? in 1980, to Barack Obama emphasizing hope and change, in 2008 to Mr. Trump telling Mrs. Clinton in 2016 that she would be in jail if he won, I think these key moments of the debate have makes a significant difference in shaping the opinions of undecided or hesitant voters. who referred to what they heard; I've certainly seen this in my focus groups and public opinion research. These moments mattered more than any mistake or gaffe a candidate made.

And sometimes it's a feeling rather than a specific moment that counts. The best examples are John Kerry in the 2004 debates and John McCain in the 2008 debates: both men were good public servants with impressive personal stories, and neither of them said anything bad in their debates. But they also didn't say anything particularly or memorable. Many voters felt numb and therefore indifferent.

At the risk of offending every American high school debate coach, many voters respond more to style than substance. The well-spoken quip lingers longer than the litany of facts, and the visual often trumps the verbal. It's not just that the electorate tends to be more attracted to younger, more attractive candidates (like Mr. Obama, Mr. Clinton and John F. Kennedy) or to those with a more commanding stage presence ( that Mr Reagan had over Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale and George HW Bush had more than Michael Dukakis). Although the 2016 and 2020 debates featuring Mr. Trump have certainly upended our collective expectations of what exactly is presidential, listening to voters describe each debate and their gut impressions of the candidates is more informative about the eventual winner of election than getting drawn into intrigues and intrigues. experts.

The public debate of 1992 is perhaps the best example of divergence between the opinions of voters and those of politicians and experts. Immediately afterward, Mr. Bush was pilloried by the professional class for checking his watch during the debate, a moment that was completely missed by my group of American voters. For them, the most important takeaway was Mr. Bush's failure to explain what the federal deficit meant to him, then Mr. Clinton's Oscar-worthy performance as he deftly rose from his stool and approached an audience member with empathy and compassion, his head nodding. in agreement with him throughout the meeting.

A similar misreading of a debate came from the first debate between George W. Bush and Mr. Gore, when a number of political analysts praised Mr. Gore for his mastery of facts and the intricacies of decision-making presidential election, while much of America seemed pleasantly surprised (shocked, in fact) that Mr. Bush was able to string together complete sentences that were competent, coherent and convincing. Voters in my focus group were impressed by Mr. Bush's comfort and command of the debate stage, disappointed by Mr. Gores' stiffness and annoyed by what they saw as his disdain for his opponent.

In almost every presidential debate since 1992, voters' expectations of a candidate's performance have also played a major role in determining perceptions of success and failure. Many had low expectations of Mr. Bush in 2000 and Mr. Trump in 2016 (and Mr. Biden today). The fact that they didn't completely fail led at least some voters to view these candidates as surprisingly strong performers in the debates.

Many election observers believe that incumbents start with some advantage because they have experience in national debates and a grasp of government. In Thursday's case, both men have that experience, so voters will look at other factors likely related to energy, sharpness and how they come across. Even though the specific circumstances were different, I think of the shock I felt watching Mr. Obama and Mitt Romney during their first debate in 2012. The widely held assumption was that Mr. Obama's grace and charm would have easily overwhelmed Mr. Romney's rigid, pragmatic approach. . But Mr. Obama had such a cold approach that he seemed cold and uncaring to many voters. His performance was criticized by my focus group for lacking the usual passion and conviction, a surprising assessment from a politician so popular for these qualities.

But here's the surprising twist: Over time, many voters came to view that first encounter with more nuance than that instant reaction suggested. In my 2012 Election Day focus groups, voters said they believed Mr. Obama truly understood them and their concerns, but that he had no answers or solutions to their problems. Conversely, they felt that Mr. Romney had the best solutions to the challenges they faced, but simply did not fully understand their problems. Yes, policy solutions definitely matter in presidential debates. But personality, reliability and dignity matter more.

And it's not just the candidates' personal performances that leave an impression. Sometimes less visible forces, like the rules of debate, play a major role in determining the outcome. The time allowed to answer the moderator's questions can reward or punish candidates, depending on their individual style and ability to communicate succinctly. Nothing draws the ire of the average voter more than candidates who speak beyond the allotted time, my focus groups showed. While most professional debate observers ignore long-running candidates, voters punish them mercilessly. This is one of the main reasons why many undecided voters opposed Mr. Trump so strongly after his unruly performance in the first debate in 2020.

This debate, the most important in living memory, was one in which many voters and political pundits came to much the same conclusions. Mr. Trump entered the debate trailing Mr. Biden by only a few percentage points, but his questionable strategy of insulting, harassing and intimidating Mr. Biden was so poorly received by the women in my focus group that they been as tough on Mr. Trump as he was on Mr. Biden.

On the other hand, there was a moment in the Trump-Clinton debates where the voters' opinions really struck me. It was Mr. Trump’s offhand comment that Mrs. Clinton’s place was in prison. Many pundits and political pundits hated it. My focus group loved it. To them, it was accountability in action for someone as important as her, a former secretary of state. To be sure, many political pundits have focused on this moment as a stark example of a presidential candidate threatening to weaponize the justice system against his opponent. But I think what they missed was the desire among some voters to see a senior official held accountable and not left behind by a system seen as protecting insiders.

This week brings us potentially one of the most important debates since Mr. Kennedy and Richard Nixons. Expectations are already high for Mr. Trump, who has challenged Mr. Biden to debate at any time and place of his choosing. It is quite possible that Mr. Trump regrets issuing such a public challenge, and that Mr. Biden regrets accepting the offer.

To shape and influence voter opinion, both opponents must use the debate to do what Mr. Reagan, Mr. Obama and Mr. Trump did best: crystallize the issues of the race and the November choice with just one memorable line. it speaks to the feelings, instincts, and perhaps even fears of so many voters about America today.

Since viewers are conditioned to view the 2024 debates as a mix of TV entertainment and a war for America's future, they will want to see passion, energy and even anger in service of the country's interests . A subdued Mr. Trump or a grown-up Mr. Biden will not be remembered, just as Mr. Kerry and Mr. McCain will not be remembered. So much is at stake that both candidates must go all out to make a lasting impression, but not in a way that could alienate key groups like suburban women and swing voters.

Ultimately, it's not the facts, the policies, or even the one-upmanship that Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump offer in the debate that matters. That’s how they make voters feel.

Frank Luntz is a focus group moderator, pollster, professor and communications strategist who has worked for Republican candidates in past elections.

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