Politics
I'd rather listen to Nigel Farage on Russia than Boris Johnson
IN THEIR scramble to defame Nigel Farage, the media and civil service appear to have forgotten the convention of purdah that no major announcements or comments are made during the event. election campaigns. In the brave new world of Uniparty, this does not seem to apply, allowing the Ministry of Defense make extraordinary announcement about his view of why Russia invaded Ukraine.
The 1994 Budapest Accords gave Ukraine somewhat less than strong guarantees after Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons. We have armed Ukraine since the beginning of the war, but not to the teeth. Indeed, the war highlighted the military weakness of the United Kingdom, widely mentioned in TCW.
Now the big beast Boris Johnson weighed. This is the same Boris Johnson who is largely responsible for the death of the Conservative Party with his half-baked Brexit, his crazy Net Zero extensions and the various Covid disasters. Oh yes, and he was the one who thought that 14 Challenger tanks would turn the war in kyiv's favor. He has a book to sell and is no doubt seeking a peerage to match his brother Jo. What he doesn't have is an understanding of Putin, Russia and military realities.
Last year I attended a luncheon where the speaker was a man who understands Putin and Russia. (Chatham House rule, so no names.) He said unequivocally that a hostile Ukraine posed an existential threat to Russia. Any budding Rommel looking at a map could tell you it's just 500 miles from Kharkiv to Moscow, almost within range of ATACMS ballistic missiles.
As the speaker pointed out, Putin, believing he had strong armed forces, probably could have supported a neutral, nuclear-free Ukraine, just as Finland and Russia managed to establish a working relationship during the Cold War. A Ukraine that is a member of NATO and therefore supported by nuclear power is a different story. Russia was invaded twice in the last century and once in the previous century. The Russian death toll during World War II was more than 25 million. Mr. Putin may or may not be paranoid about the intentions of the West and NATO, but he has good reason to be. Worse still, Russia has lost the buffer states that protected it during the Cold War.
It is important. Nigel Farage spoke of the West poking the Russian bear with a stick. It doesn't matter what the stick holder thinks, it's what the bear thinks that counts. It is now clear that the bear was wronged. The net result is that its tanks are stationed on about 20 percent of Ukraine's territory and are not going to withdraw. Western sanctions have failed; they may have made Russia stronger and more resourceful. We don't have the conventional military power to do much, especially if the United States isn't prepared to fully engage.
It's time for realpolitik. Unfortunately, Henry Kissinger is now dead, and whatever is in the PPE program, its graduates are theoreticians, not pragmatists. Nigel Farage doesn't have a degree; he does not need it to emphasize that Western policy towards Ukraine is that of a naked emperor. The pragmatists' choice is an imposed peace (no idea what that would look like), an expanded war (which is certainly not a good thing), or a continuation of the war of attrition. Until someone comes to their senses, which might be Donald Trump but certainly not President Biden or a possible British Prime Minister, the mothers of Moscow and kyiv will continue to cry. Nothing else will change.
If the Civil Service, Sir Keir Starmer and the Ministry of Defense don't like Nigel Farage pointing this out, that's their problem. We have the opportunity to vote to ensure that this does not become our problem.
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