Why Trump's best chance to win the US election may be to choose a once-bitter rival as his vice president

As outgoing President Joe Biden and his Republican opponent, Donald Trump, prepare for their first debate later this week, a big question looms over the US presidential race: who will Trump choose as his running mate? -presidency?

There has been no shortage of speculation on this issue. Will Trump choose another loyalist and nationalist guy who is unlikely to expand his electoral base? Or will he choose someone from the non-populist wing of the GOP in an effort to widen his extremely narrow lead over Biden?

There is a logical choice for Trump if he wants to take this route. Whether he likes it or not, his best chance of winning might be his main rival and critic until recently: former Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley.

Nikki Haley on the campaign trail in February during the Republican presidential primaries. Craig Lassig/EPA From critic to supporter

For months during the Republican primary, Haley had bluntly criticized Trump. She said, among other things, that Trump had become more unstable and unbalanced since leaving office in 2021 and that he was not qualified to be president.

She also said:

He expresses his anger on others. He's getting nastier and more offensive by the day. He tries to intimidate me and everyone who supports me.

Haley had been Trump's strongest opponent in the primaries, winning contests in Vermont and Washington, DC. Notably, even after she withdrew from the race in March, she continued to receive a significant number of votes in states where Trump's victory was assured. These votes were seen as a protest against Trump and a possible problem for him in the November election.

Read more: Who will Trump choose as his running mate? In 2024, Veepstakes are higher than usual

But last month, Haley changed her mind. In a speech as the new president of the Hudson Institute, she announced that she would vote for Trump.

She said she wanted a president who supports our allies and holds our enemies accountable, and someone who would also secure the U.S.-Mexico border. She noted that Biden has been a disaster on these issues.

His announcement divided Republicans. Former national security adviser John Bolton, an anti-Trump Republican, questioned Haley's political calculations and asked whether she would consider becoming his vice president. Republican strategist Sarah Longwell called her a pathetic coward.

Other Republicans welcomed the move, including David Wilkins, who served as U.S. ambassador to Canada during the most recent Bush administration. He said: Republicans must be united as best we can.

A History of Skeptical Republican Candidates

Haleys stressed that calls for a strong U.S. leadership role in the world, including support for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, and more open trade with like-minded classically liberal nations, have made of her the de facto leader of the internationalist (Trump supporters would say globalist) wing. of the GOP.

It's a precarious position for someone who clearly wanted to become president. The Republican Party, when successful, typically nominates presidential candidates who are skeptical of international implications.

In 1980, for example, then-candidate Ronald Reagan ran with a platform that included repealing the Panama Canal Treaty and challenging newly normalized relations with China.

In 2000, George W. Bush opposed nation building and called for a more modest role for the United States in world affairs.

In 2016, Trump expressed his adamant opposition to the Iraq War and his skepticism of the NATO alliance.

Once in power, of course, both Reagan and Bush adopted a more internationalist approach.

Trump has had a more mixed record. He withdrew the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Iran nuclear deal and remained critical of U.S. alliances. However, he did not withdraw the United States from NATO, as some feared, and in fact improved American diplomacy in the Middle East by promoting the Abraham Accords between Israel and Arab countries.

Haley, then ambassador to the UN, sitting with Trump in the Oval Office in October 2018. Michael Reynolds/EPA How Haley Could Help

Trump can now boost his campaign by adding Haley's internationalist credentials and voter base to his presidential slate.

The Republicans successfully used this model in 1980 with a leading American candidate (Reagan) and an experienced diplomat (George HW Bush) as their vice-presidential candidate. (Bush and Haley are both former U.S. ambassadors to the United Nations.)

This option would of course depend on whether Trump is willing to invite Haley on the ticket. Last month, Trump was more conciliatory toward his once-bitter rival, saying:

Well, I think she will be part of our team because we have a lot of the same ideas, the same thoughts.

While most anti-Trump Republicans will return to the party in November when the votes really count, Haley's place on the ticket would guarantee that. Her position as a possible vice president would also appeal to independent voters and perhaps even some Democrats unhappy with Biden's performance in office.

The 2024 election will also likely be Trump's last campaign at the national level. If he wins, he will be a lame duck, unable to run again (American presidents can only serve two terms). If he loses, he will be a spent political force and (probably) too old in 2028 to be a viable candidate.

So, once the 2024 elections are settled, the Republican Party will begin to look to the future. Haley's best and probably only chance of winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination lies in implicitly supporting Trump as her running mate this year.

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