Polling Guru Nate Silver Gives Donald Trump a 66% Chance of Winning the Presidential Election

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Polling and data guru Nate Silver revealed that former President Trump is a solid favorite to win the White House in his early predictions for Wednesday's presidential election.

“The candidate who, in all honesty, thinks he has a better chance (Trump) is not the one I would rather win (Biden),” Silver, who previously ran the poll analysis site FiveThirtyEight, wrote. in its “Silver Bulletin” substack.

Silver's forecasting model, based on 40,000 simulations, found that Trump had a 65.7% chance of winning the electoral college, compared to Biden, who had a 33.7% chance. However, Biden is slightly favored to win the popular vote. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016, but won the presidency with a series of close state victories.

“If the gap between the Electoral College and the popular vote looks like it did in 2016 or 2020, one would expect Biden to be in big trouble if the popular vote is roughly tied,” Silver wrote.

President Biden, left, and former President Trump. (Getty Images)

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Silver noted that his model adjusts “depending on whether polls are conducted among registered or likely voters, the presence or absence of [Robert F. Kennedy] Jr. and House Effects,” and added that his polling averages “weigh more heavily than more reliable polls.”

The data expert wrote that there was still time for Biden to turn things around and suggested that the president hand the nomination to Vice President Harris or someone else at the Democratic convention. However, he wrote: “Warning: This might also be a really bad idea. »

“And he’s really not that far behind,” Silver wrote of Biden. “But racing is not child's play. It is at best a white lie, a convenient fiction that allows everyone to evade responsibility for their predictions and decisions.”

Nate Silver, statistician, author and founder of FiveThirtyEight, speaks on stage during the ABC Leadership Breakfast panel during Advertising Week 2015 AWXII at Bryant Park Grill in New York on September 28, 2015. (Slaven Vlasic/Getty Images for AWXII)

Silver won acclaim in 2012 for correctly choosing the winner of each state between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney and for confidently predicting an Obama victory. He was optimistic about Hillary Clinton in 2016, but cautioned that Trump had a reasonable chance.

In 2020, FiveThirtyEight's model gave Biden a nearly 90% chance of winning the presidency heading into the election.

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Silver said earlier this month that the Democratic Party would have been “better served” if Biden had decided not to seek a second term.

“Biden just hit a new all-time low in approval (37.4%) at 538 yesterday. Giving up would be a big risk. But there is a certain threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk .Are we there yet? I don’t know, but it’s more than fair to ask,” Silver posted on June 10.

Silver argued that the president should consider stepping down if he is still struggling in the August polls.

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“It's not a great situation for Ds anyway, but you have to do your due diligence on the issue. It's an important election, obviously. It shouldn't be taboo to talk about it,” he said. -he wrote on social networks in May.

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