The latest poll shows Britain's Labor set to win a landslide victory in next week's election, while Biden wins over Trump on the other side of the Atlantic.

The UK general election will take place in a week's time, on July 4. Polls will close at 7am (AEST) on July 5. The 650 members of the House of Commons are elected by first-past-the-post, in which the candidate with the highest score and the greatest number of votes wins the seat.

In the UK, votes are not counted at individual polling stations, but are instead transported to a central location to be counted within that seat. This delays the results, so that the vast majority of seats will be declared between late morning and mid-afternoon AEST on 5 July.

The gardians tracking national polls Labor leads the Conservatives by just over 20 points. The vote shares are 41.3% for Labour, 21.0% for the Conservatives, 15.5% for the far-right reformers, 11.1% for the Liberal Democrats and 5.8% for the Greens. Recent individual surveys that Labor leads the Conservatives by 16 to 24 points.

In recent weeks there has been a rise in power among the Reform and, to a lesser extent, Liberal Democrats, at the expense of both Labor and the Conservatives. Labour's lead over the Conservatives remained unchanged.

If these polls are repeated in the next election, Labor will win a landslide victory, thanks to the first past the post system. According to Guardian forecasts, Labor will win 424 of the 650 seats, the Conservatives 135, the Liberal Democrats 47 and the Scottish National Party (SNP) 19.

At December 2019 electionBoris Johnson led the Conservatives to a landslide victory, winning 365 of the 650 seats to Labour's 202, with the Conservatives receiving 43.6% of the popular vote to Labour's 32.1%. The Conservatives have governed the UK since winning the 2010 general election.

Under Johnson, the Conservatives conducted in the polls until the end of 2021, when there was many scandals surrounding Johnson's parties during COVID.

But it was only after Johnson was ousted as Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister, and replaced first by Liz Truss in September 2022, and then by Rishi Sunak in October 2022, that the Conservatives began are found in a totally disadvantaged position which exposes them to a crushing defeat next week. Conservatives will likely regret ousting Johnson.

In Scottish polls, Labor leads the Scottish National Party by single-digit margins. In 2019, Labor won only one of 59 Scottish seats and the SNP won 48, after Labor finished third in terms of votes behind the Conservatives and the SNP. So Labor will gain many seats from the SNP if these Scottish polls are correct.

In the two-seat polls of ClatonReform leader Nigel Farage has a double-digit lead over the Tories, so he is expected to win Clacton.

United States: Biden wins over Trump before the debate

The United States general election will take place on November 5. debate hosted by CNN Thursday, US time, between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, which will take place on Friday at 11:00 AEST. Trump is now 78 years old and Biden will be almost 82 by the time of the election.

THE FiveThirtyEight Aggregation According to national polls, Trump is just ahead of Biden by 41,040.9%, with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 9.3%. Trump trailed by one point two weeks ago.

However, the latest high-profile polls from College of Siena for the New York Times And Quinnipiac University Trump leads by three to four percentage points head to head, and more when third-party candidates are included.

Presidents are not elected by national vote, but using a state-based system in which each state has electoral college votes equal to its seats in the federal House (based on population) and its senators (always two). With two minor exceptions, states award all of their electoral votes to the state winner. There are 538 electoral votes in total, so you need 270 to win.

FiveThirtyEight suggests Trump has clear leads in three states Biden won in 2020: Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. In three other states won by Biden (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania), the score is close. If Biden wins these three states and doesn't lose any electoral votes other than where Trump is currently leading, he will win the election by a clear margin. 270268 margin.

In terms of economic data, May was a good month for American workers real earnings (adjusted for inflation) Real hourly wages rose 0.5% and weekly wages rose 0.4%, after falling in April. In the 12 months to May, real hourly wages rose 0.8% and real weekly wages rose 0.5%.

There was no change in headline inflation In May, this was the lowest monthly inflation since at least May 2023. Core inflation rose 0.2% in May, its lowest monthly rate since at least November 2023.

The United States uses two monthly surveys on the employment situation which sometimes give contradictory figures. In May, survey of establishments suggested that 272,000 jobs had been created, but the household survey
suggested that 408,000 jobs had been lost. Financial markets and economists believe the establishment survey is more accurate.

The far right is expected to win most seats in France's early legislative elections

After the disastrous results of his Renaissance party in the European elections on June 9, French President Emmanuel Macron announced early elections for the French lower house, two years out of a five-year term.

The 577 seats are elected by single-member ballot in two rounds, on Sunday and July 7. The top two candidates for a seat, plus everyone else who gets at least 12.5% ​​of registered voters (a high hurdle because it takes into account turnout). ), advance to the second round on July 7, where the first-past-the-post system is used. A candidate can withdraw before the second round. The overwhelming majority of voting rounds will take place between two candidates.

The polls have the far-right National Rally (RN) in the mid-1930s, an alliance of four left-wing parties (NFP) which will present one candidate per seat in the twenties, Ensemble (a coalition which includes Renaissance and other parties) in about 20% and conservative Republicans at about 7%.

If the results of this Sunday's first round reflect the polls, Ensemble will finish third in the vast majority of seats, with the last two RN against NFP. Poll predictions for the second round suggest that the RN will win the most seats, but will be short of a majority (289 seats are needed for this).

Ensemble had 249 seats before this election, the NFP 149, the RN 89 and the Republicans 54. According to seat forecasts, Ensemble would win around 100 seats, so this election risks being a disaster for Macron.

I covered this election for The Poll Bludger on June 17 And June 24. My June 17 article also covered the left's landslide in the June 2 Mexican presidential and legislative elections, as well as the formation of a South African government after the May 29 elections. My June 24 article covered the final results of the European Parliament in the June 69 elections.