What are the stakes in the first presidential debate?

5 hours ago

By Anthony Zurcher, @awzurcher, senior North America reporter, AtlantaBBC

When Donald Trump and Joe Biden take the debate stage Thursday night, it will be a reunion of sorts, but not exactly a friendly one.

A current president has never debated his predecessor, and the tensions between these two men will be evident on the CNN debate stage in Atlanta.

Trump never conceded the 2020 election to President Biden, and days after his supporters attacked the U.S. Capitol, he broke with tradition by refusing to attend his opponents' inauguration.

The two men are facing off again for the presidency, and this debate will mark the first time in this election campaign that millions of Americans will be paying attention.

The stakes are high and the tension in the room will be far greater than past brawls, as both men attempt to convince American voters that they deserve their vote in November.

An unusual evening

Thursday's debate will also mark the first time Joe Biden and Donald Trump have appeared together since their debates four years ago. The first meeting in 2020 was an acrimonious affair, punctuated by repeated interruptions and a frustrated Mr. Biden. Will you shut up, man? request.

At the start of the second debate that year, delayed by Trump's Covid diagnosis, the two men did not even shake hands.

This time, both men lack training. Neither has participated in a debate in nearly four years, with Trump skipping Republican primary debates before becoming the party's presumptive nominee earlier this year.

Incumbent presidents often find themselves out of ideas during their first re-election debate. This choice is often explained by the fact that they are rusty or unaccustomed to being tested after four years in the White House bubble. In this case, both candidates could face this challenge.

Unlike previous debates, this one will take place in a cable television studio, with no audience to applaud or groan. It was a request from the Biden campaign, which was reportedly concerned after a raucous Trump town hall forum hosted by CNN last year.

The debate will also feature muted microphones for the candidates during their opponent's speaking time, which could avoid descending into the chaos that characterized the first Trump-Biden debate in 2020. But it could also make this version less memorable .

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Trump and Biden last faced off in October 2020, ahead of that year's presidential election.

The expectation game

If one only listened to conservative commentators, President Biden would be lucky to get through the debate without falling asleep, freezing up, or wandering around the stage in confusion.

Republicans, from Trump on down, have called the president senile and infirm, a shell of the man he once was.

While these attacks played on voters' very real concerns about the longevity of an octogenarian president, they also set a low bar for Mr. Biden's performance — an expectation he has exceeded in the past, notably during of his energetic State of the Union address in 2017. in early March.

Trump campaign officials recently tried to raise the bar, noting that Mr. Biden performed highly in the 2012 vice presidential debate against then-Congressman Paul Ryan. They also questioned the impartiality of the debate's host, CNN.

Will CNN decide it is a facilitator or will CNN become a participant? asked Trump campaign manager Chris LaCivita on Tuesday.

Trump and his campaign also spread claims that Mr. Biden will have to rely on unspecified performance-enhancing drugs during the debate. The idea has been vehemently denied by President Biden's team, but the spread of such rumors could set the stage for a post-debate apology if the president gets the better of his predecessor on Thursday.

What to watch out for during the first debate between Biden and Trump in 2024

Biden campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt said the former president resorted to “lies” because he was afraid of being held accountable for his toxic agenda.

However, President Biden may not be the only one with the opportunity to defy expectations. Democrats have been warning for more than a year that Trump is obsessed with revenge and retribution, and that he is an aspiring dictator who poses an existential threat to American democracy.

Biden campaign officials said Trump conceded after his 2020 election defeat and was a different man from the Americans elected in 2016.

If the former president can keep his cool for 90 minutes and soften some of his edges, it could help him convince the American public that the dire warnings about a possible second Trump term are overblown.

Biden must prove that the perception that he is too old for the job is false, Mike Murphy, a longtime Republican political consultant, told Americast, the BBC podcast about American politics.

Trump needs to prove that he is not the unsympathetic fool that half the country thinks he is. So this is an opportunity for both of them, but the risk is also high.

Learn more about the debate

The problems

Heading into this debate, polls indicated voters were giving Trump higher marks on the economy and immigration – two of the top issues for American voters.

Meanwhile, the president was favored on abortion, health care and the environment.

The winner of Thursday night's debate could well be the candidate who can best deliver memorable lines about his strengths while defending his weaknesses.

Can President Biden convince voters that he shares their concerns about increased immigration, but has been blocked by Republicans in their attempts to address it? Will former President Trump find a way to convince voters that a new mandate will not result in greater restrictions on abortion, especially since he nominated three Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn the federal right to this procedure?

Mr. Biden has been trying for more than a year to convince the American public that the economy is better than they think. He will have a chance to make that point again in front of an audience of tens of millions, but he will have to do so in the face of what are sure to be scathing attacks from his opponent, who is expected to focus on soaring prices and the resulting high inflation. Americans have had to live with it in recent years.

We know Joe Biden is going to try to blame everything on President Trump, Trump campaign spokesman Jason Miller told reporters Tuesday.

He added: Americans know the difference between the Trump economy, which was great, where everyone was better off, and the Biden economy.

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Thursday's showdown on CNN will take place in Atlanta, Georgia, where preparations are already underway.

Get personal

Last week, the Biden campaign launched a new series of ads directly attacking Trump for his recent felony conviction in a New York court.

Recent polls have indicated that the guilty verdict cost Donald Trump the support of independent voters who could prove decisive in this election.

There is no doubt that Trump will be asked about this historic legal case during the debate and that President Biden will be ready to strike. If the former president allows himself to be drawn into a tirade against corrupt judges and rigged courts, it could further alienate moderate voters.

If they can get Trump to burn the microphone by being a neurotic defensive nut, that's a very good debate topic, Murphy said.

Meanwhile, President Biden has his own lawsuit to sort out. His son Hunter's gun crime conviction also made history, and the president — although not involved in the case — was emotionally invested in its outcome.

Trump could lash out at Hunter Biden, if not over the weapons case, then over his upcoming tax evasion trial, which could reveal controversial details about the younger Biden's business dealings. Trump will likely try to present Hunter Biden's conviction as evidence of more widespread corruption in what he calls the Biden crime family.

a long way to go

This is the first presidential debate in modern U.S. history to be held before either candidate has become their party’s official nominee. That means the showdown could set the mood and scope of the upcoming campaign, solidifying some loosely held views about the candidates and better defining the issues and stakes surrounding the November vote.

But barring a truly catastrophic mistake by one of the candidates, the early timing could mean that when Election Day arrives, that June event will be nothing more than a distant memory for the majority of Americans who follow politics only sporadically.

Both candidates will have the opportunity to get back on their feet and rebuild after any damage at their tightly scripted national conventions, which will take place later in the summer. Then there's another debate scheduled for September that could further erase this week from voters' memories.

It's a reality that a senior Biden campaign official, speaking to the BBC's media partner CBS, acknowledged.

The June debate is not the time when we hope to set the trajectory of the election or move the poll results in the short term,” the adviser said, adding that voters will need “consistent time and effort.”

In other words, this debate is the start of a marathon, not the end of the race.

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