Here's who's leading Trump against. Biden Election Polls

Top line

President Joe Biden is six points behind former President Donald Trump in a new New York Times/Siena poll, an outlier among most other polls that show them just one point apart from each other. other, underscoring the high stakes of Thursday's debate in an even contest in which marginal shifts in support could cost either candidate the election.

Trump and Biden remain virtually tied, as Trump's lead in early polls shrinks

AFP via Getty Images Key Facts

Trump leads Biden by six points among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup and by three points with third-party candidates on the ballot, according to the New York Times/Siena poll that also found voters have higher expectations. higher towards Trump than Biden. In Thursday's debate, 60% of respondents said they thought Trump would perform very well or somewhat well and 46% said the same about Biden.

Overall, national surveys indicate a tighter race than The New York Times, which notes that Trump's base may be more motivated to participate in surveys than Biden voters after Trump's conviction last month in Manhattan .

Trump and Biden are tied in the weekly Morning Consults survey, and Trump leads by one point in a CBS poll released Monday, while Biden leads by one point in a Fox News poll released last week.

The Thursday debate is widely considered one of the most important nights for candidates in the 2024 election cycle, especially in a race where any shift in support could influence the outcome, and 16% of voters are willing to switch to who they plan to vote on in November. based on candidate performance, a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday found.

An Associated Press/NORC poll of more than 1,000 adults nationwide released Wednesday found that 47% of voters said the debate was extremely or very important to the success of Biden's campaign and 41% said the same thing about Trump.

The vast majority of voters plan to watch the Thursday debate on CNN, according to Quinnipiac polls which found 73% of voters said they would watch the program and 57% of respondents in the AP/NORC poll said they would. 'they would watch it.

What should you pay attention to?

CNN will host the first debate between Biden and Trump on Thursday at 9 p.m. EDT. It will also be simulcast on other major networks.

Large number

1.5. That's the number of percentage points by which Trump leads Biden in a head-to-head matchup, according to the latest RealClearPolitics polling average for a five-way contest.

Contra

In the seven key states that will likely decide the election — Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — all narrowly won in 2020 except North Carolina, polls consistently show Trump leads Biden. A May Cook Political Report poll found Trump up three points on average in all seven states, a May Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll found Trump leading Biden by four points overall in battleground states and a April New York Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer poll. found that Trump would beat Biden in five of six swing states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia and Nevada), except Wisconsin.

Surprising fact

In such a tight race, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has the potential to influence the election through his independent candidacy, although it is not clear in whose favor. A May Emerson poll found Trump widening his lead over Biden, from two points to five, with Kennedy Jr., independent Cornell West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein in the mix. Kennedy received 6% support, while 10% of voters said they were undecided. A May Fox poll shows Trump's lead increasing by two points with all three independents on the ballot. The Times/Siena/Inquirer investigation found that Kennedy Jr. is drawing votes from Biden's core supporters. Kennedy has the support of just 10% of voters in six battleground states in a five-way contest, but support is as high as 18% for voters ages 18 to 29 and 14% for Hispanic voters. And a recent CAPS/Harris poll from Harvard shows that Trump's five-point lead remains unchanged with Kennedy Jr. on the ballot. Meanwhile, an April NBC poll found Biden trailing Trump by two points in a head-to-head race, but beating him by two with Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates on the ballot.

Tangent

Polls consistently suggest that Biden and the Democratic Party as a whole have lost support among key demographic groups, including Black, Latino and young voters, who have largely supported the party in the past. A May NPR/PBS/Marist poll found that voters under 45 prefer Biden over Trump by just four points and Biden leads Gen Z/millennials by six points in a head-to-head matchup, but the vote swings in favor by Trump among both groups (by six points among Gen Z/millennials and eight among voters under 45) with third-party candidates in the mix. The April Times/Siena/Inquirer poll also found that Biden is tied with Trump among Hispanic voters in six key states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada) and trails him by four points in those states among 18- to 29-year-olds, two groups who voted for Biden with more than 60% support in 2020, according to the Times. Biden also appears to be losing support in Democratic strongholds, like New York, where he has a nine-point lead over Trump, according to a Siena College poll from May, after beating Trump in that city by 23 points in 2020.

Key context

Biden and Trump are set for a historic rematch after clinching their respective parties' nominations in March, ending the primary season much earlier in the year than in previous elections. Polls show historically low enthusiasm, with both candidates having relatively low favorability ratings, below 45%. The NBC poll found that 64% of voters said they were very interested in this year's election, a 20-year low. Trump has focused his campaign on his legal problems, accusing prosecutors and judges in his criminal cases of working at Biden's behest to hurt his chances of winning the election, although there is no evidence to suggest that this notion is true. Biden, meanwhile, cast Trump as a threat to democracy, citing his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riots, and hammered Trump over the nomination of Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn of Roe v. Wade. Polls show the economy, immigration, abortion and inflation are consistently top issues for voters, with the Times/Siena/Inquirer survey finding a majority trust Trump over Biden to manage the economy, crime and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but trusts Biden more. Trump on abortion.

Further reading

These are the six swing states Trump must take from Biden to win in November (Forbes)

RFK Jr. candidacy hurts Trump more than Biden, poll finds (Forbes)

Biden Gaining Ground Over Trump in Swing States, New Poll Shows: It's Latest Survey Showing Positive Signs for Biden (Forbes)

Trump-Biden 2024 Polls: Here's Who Will Win In The 6 States That Will Decide The Election (Forbes)

Post-Trump condemnation polls show warning signs. Most independents think Trump should drop out (Forbes)

Sources 1/ https://Google.com/ 2/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/06/27/biden-vs-trump-2024-election-polls-trump-leads-by-6-points-and-most-voters-think-hell-win-debate-new-survey-finds/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article

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