Frontrunners emerge in Trump's vice presidential race

Former President Donald Trump has not yet announced the identity of his vice presidential running mate, but media reports and hints from the Trump campaign suggest he could do so between now and the convention. Republican nomination at the end of July.

While Trump could certainly make an unexpected decision, most reports suggest he has narrowed his search to about five potential vice presidential candidates. The top three include two sitting U.S. senators Marco Rubio and JD Vance and one sitting governor: Doug Burgum of North Dakota.

Sen. Tim Scott and Rep. Elise Stefanik are also reportedly under consideration.

The potential candidates would bring different experiences and strengths to the Republican presidential field. Some had harshly criticized Trump, only to fall in line after the Republican base coalesced behind him as the party's nominee in the 2016 presidential elections.

The choice is important for the Trump campaign, said William A. Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

“The political imperative is the political version of the Hippocratic Oath: do no harm,” Galston told VOA. “Because if you choose someone whose flaws quickly become apparent after the announcement, you will pay a heavy political price.”

Strategic choices

Other strategic choices, beyond ensuring that the candidate will not harm the campaign, have helped guide the choice of vice-presidential candidates in the past.

Sometimes this pickaxe is used to “bridge a gap” between two factions of the presidential party. Galston pointed out that the most serious rift within the Republican Party is between Trump supporters and voters who favored former Gov. Nikki Haley in the Republican primary. Trump does not appear to have spoken to him after his abandonment, and bridging that gap does not appear to be his priority.

Sometimes candidates will select close ideological partners who echo their policy choices. Or they will choose governance partners, stable and experienced leaders who add an aura of competence to their candidacy. And some choose vice presidential candidates who appeal to a portion of the voting public that the candidate would otherwise struggle to reach.

First Generation American

FILE – Sen. Marco Rubio speaks at a campaign rally in Miami, Florida, Nov. 6, 2022.

Of the top three candidates, Rubio is the best known in Washington. An attorney, he has served in government at the municipal, state and national levels for more than 25 years, including the last 13 years in the Senate. He is vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee and served as its chairman when Republicans controlled the Senate.

Aged 53, Rubio is married and the father of four children. He is a native of Miami and the son of immigrants who came to the United States from Cuba before the communist revolution. He is generally very firm on national security issues.

As a candidate in the 2016 Republican presidential primary, Rubio was a vocal critic of Trump, whom he described as a “crook” and an “embarrassment.” He has since become one of the former president's strongest supporters in Congress.

“Rubio is certainly the most well-known, and he actually brings more to the table than [Vance and Burgum]” Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told VOA. “How much he brings, we'll have to see, but he speaks Spanish. He is Cuban-American. And Latinos are moving away from Democrats to some extent. »

Effective messenger

FILE – Sen. JD Vance attends a campaign rally in Vandalia, Ohio on March 16, 2024.

Vance has the least political experience, having served in the Senate since January 2023 and having not held elected office before. A 39-year-old Ohio native, he is married with three children. He enlisted in the Marine Corps after high school and served in the Iraq War before earning bachelor’s and law degrees.

Vance first came to notice in 2016 when he published his bestselling book, “Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis,” which analyzed the culture and social pathologies of America's rust belt. Vance later became a venture capitalist before running for Senate in 2022.

Vance was also a harsh critic of Trump during the former president's early political years, once describing himself as a “Never Trump” Republican and calling Trump a “cultural heroine.”

Like Rubio, he also became a staunch supporter of Trump after the former president managed to seize power within the Republican Party.

Brookings' Galston said Vance doesn't bring a clear electoral advantage to the ticket because his home state is already highly likely to vote for Trump.

However, he said, “Vance would be an effective messenger of the Trump message, even if Vance is smart enough to make the occasional mistake of thinking for himself. From time to time there might be friction, but it wouldn't last.” “.

Silent Skill

FILE – North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum waves to the crowd during a rally in Wildwood, New Jersey, May 11, 2024.

Burgum, 67, is a native of North Dakota and served two terms as governor of the state, from late 2016 to the present. He indicated that he would not ask for a third. He has three children from his first marriage which ended in 2003. He remarried in 2016.

A wealthy businessman, Burgum built several successful businesses, including an accounting software company that he sold to Microsoft for more than $1 billion in 2001. Since then, he has been active in numerous philanthropic activities.

Burgum was a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, but dropped out of the race in December 2023. Although he was mildly critical of Trump during the campaign, he supported the former president early in the campaign. election year and has become a regular presence. on the electoral campaign and a media surrogate for him.

“Trump likes him and feels comfortable with him,” Sabato said. “He’s a businessman, he’s very soft-spoken, has no prickliness, and can’t upstage Trump when they’re on stage together.”

Other possibilities

FILE – Sen. Tim Scott speaks during a Republican presidential primary debate in Miami, Florida, Nov. 8, 2023.

While Rubio, Vance and Burgum appear to have the strongest chances at present, Scott and Stefanik are reportedly still under consideration.

Scott, a senator from South Carolina, has served in public office since 1995, when he began his career in local politics. He has been a senator since 2013 and has already served a term in the House of Representatives.

As an African American, Scott could help Trump appeal to black Americans, a demographic in which he has historically underperformed. However, Trump is already heavily favored to win in South Carolina, so picking Scott would give him little advantage there.

FILE – Rep. Elise Stefanik greets supporters during a conference in Oxon Hill, Maryland, Feb. 23, 2024.

Stefanik has represented her New York district in the House since 2015 and is chairwoman of the House Republican Conference, a party leadership position. She is a staunch Trump supporter who gained the former president's attention in part because of her aggressive defense of him when the House of Representatives was considering his first impeachment.

As a woman, Stefanik could help Trump appeal to female voters, with whom the former president has sometimes struggled. However, as with Scott, her selection is unlikely to affect her own state’s vote. New York hasn’t voted for a Republican for president in 40 years, and 61% of its voters backed Joe Biden in 2020, while 38% backed Trump.

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