The polls for the Trump vs. Biden 2024 election tell a different story.

I’ve made no secret of the fact that I believe President Joe Biden’s reelection bid is deeply troubled, and that Democrats would have been better served by a younger, more vigorous candidate. But just as they did in 2022, Republicans may be getting overconfident, certain that Biden is a hapless, demented man whom voters are eager to dismiss as one of Kristi Noem’s lapdogs. But a closer look at the data suggests that members of the Republican Party should be worried, too. They’ve found themselves saddled with perhaps the worst major-party candidate in American history, who has already led the GOP to four consecutive underperformances in national elections and who has made no adjustments to his divisive rhetoric, unpopular policy positions, and authoritarian promises in the interim. The numbers show that they don’t have all that up their sleeve yet.

The main problem that should have Republican strategists reaching for their Xanax is that Trump can’t seem to push his cartoon hair past his long-standing ceiling of around 47%. Halfway through his third consecutive presidential run, with near-universal name recognition, the star power of a sensational television personality, and now the celebrity cachet of a former president, Trump has yet to surpass 48% in the RealClearPolitics polling average against any of his opponents. A more visceral representation of that ceiling is Trump’s actual performance in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, in which he received 46.1% and 46.8% of the vote, respectively. Trump has dominated American politics for nine years now, and it’s highly unlikely that he’ll improve on that number significantly in November.

There's also a story that suggests Trump's mountain might be too steep to climb anyway. The two major parties have rarely nominated as their party's standard bearer someone who has already lost a general election, but when they have, that candidate almost never did better the next time around, at least in terms of gross total votes. Republican Richard Nixon in 1968, Democrat Adlai Stevenson in 1956, Republican Thomas Dewey in 1948, and Democrat William Jennings Bryan in 1900 and 1908 all received a smaller share of the popular vote when re-nominated after being suffered defeat in previous general elections. . Bryan is also the only other person in American history to receive his party's nomination a third time after losing the popular vote twice, one reason why it was crazy for Republican primary voters to choose Trump again. Granted, Nixon won the Electoral College, but like Grover Cleveland before him in 1892, he triumphed largely because third-party candidates (notably segregationist George Wallace) took enough votes away from his opponent to win.

If history is any guide, Trump is very fortunate because 2024 is shaping up to be a better-than-average year for third-party candidates. That means the winner will likely be determined by undecided voters or those who currently say they will vote for third-party candidates, primarily independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. What do we know about these groups of voters?

According to the latest Fox News poll, Kennedy attracted 12 percent of voters under 30 and 16 percent of moderates, the best showing of any voter subgroup in the poll. He also won over 14 percent of nonwhite women. And according to the latest Economist/YouGov poll, voters ages 18 to 29 were among the most likely to be undecided (10 percent of the cohort) or to support Kennedy (7 percent). Ten percent of self-described moderates were undecided, and 6 percent said they would vote for Kennedy. Ten percent of women, compared to 6 percent of men, expressed no preference. In the Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday, Kennedy is attracting a staggering 19 percent of registered 18- to 34-year-olds, with an additional 8 percent of that cohort saying they would vote for independent Cornel West.

These are all groups that, needless to say, do not generally skew MAGA. This is clearly hurting Biden in current polls, but those totals are very likely to decline as the election approaches. Third-party candidates at all levels of government tend to see their support decline as the election approaches. Potential third-party voters are under enormous peer pressure warning that their decision could help elect their least favorite candidate, and many respond by reluctantly voting for either the Democrat or the Republican. Ultimately, most people do not want to feel responsible for what they would perceive as a disastrous outcome.

So while Kennedy is expected to do better than most third-party candidates, it is safe to predict that his final results will be lower than he is currently polling. And given the larger share of pro-Biden groups in his coalition, the inevitable collapse of support for Kennedy should benefit Biden more than Trump. Regardless, Biden has more room to improve with undecided and third-party voters than Trump.

Jim Newell How Trump is trying to avoid a debate trap Republicans often fall into with Biden Read more

In 2016, Libertarian Gary Johnson, the former Republican governor of New Mexico, saw his support plummet from a high of 9.1% in early September to 4.7% in the final RealClearPolitics average. He ultimately received only 3.3% of the votes. In 2000, Green Party candidate Ralph Nader reached a high of 6% in a June 2000 Gallup poll before recording only 2.7% on Election Day. And this is not just the case for presidential elections. In 2022, for example, independent Oregon gubernatorial candidate Betsy Johnson was estimated at around 20% in August before receiving just 8.6%. It's a pretty safe bet that Kennedy's support will drop by half by Election Day. And although Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West enjoy relatively limited support, they are strongest among Democratic-leaning groups like black and young voters, according to the Quinnipiac poll.

When voters desert Kennedy, which they almost certainly will, those who continue to vote will find themselves faced with a choice they will find unpleasant, to say the least. But as unpopular as Joe Biden is, and as much as voters say they are very concerned about his age and his politics, it's still difficult to argue that he is a worse candidate than Donald Trump on fundamentals. The 45th president was just found guilty of 34 counts in a Manhattan court and faces three other pending prosecutions in Florida, Georgia and Washington. The Georgia case has been stayed indefinitely by the state appeals court, and while the other two might not go to trial before the election thanks to the Supreme Court's ingenious foot-dragging, the lawsuits still constitute serious baggage that any candidate, let alone one as undisciplined, unloved and inflexible as Donald Trump, would struggle to fit into the overhead compartment.

Other variables appear to be tipping the scales in Biden’s favor. One is that Democrats continue to outperform Republicans in by-elections. In the 2023-24 cycle, Democrats have far surpassed their 2020 baseline in both federal and state by-elections. While by-elections have generally been more predictive of the national vote for the House than for the presidency, the fact that so many congressional Democrats are ahead of Biden in the polls presents a much bigger opportunity for Biden than it does for Trump. The president, at least, has a chance to close that gap in the coming months.

How could he do this? Well, the good economic news keeps coming. Inflation is falling, job growth is strong, unemployment is near a 40-year low, the economy is growing, the stock market is near an all-time high reached earlier this year and consumer confidence, while it could be better, is about the same as in 2016 and much higher than when Trump left office. These numbers led the FiveThirtyEights model to give Biden an edge on the economic fundamentals of the race.

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A final note of optimism for Democrats comes from the damn Electoral College. In 2020, his pro-Republican bias was the highest since 1948. Biden won what is known as Wisconsin's tipping point with 0.6 percent, despite winning the national popular vote by 4.5 percent. hundred. That means Biden needed to win the national popular vote by at least 3.8% to win the presidency. Polling data so far this year suggests the Republican advantage may have fallen dramatically. FiveThirtyEights data puts it at 1.4 percent. If Trump's polling results among young, non-white voters actually materialize on Election Day, they could narrow the gap in places like California, New York, and the solid blue enclaves of New Jersey, without flipping any states . In fact, it's even conceivable that Biden could lose the popular vote and still win the presidency. According to RealClearPolitics election analyst Sean Trende, it wouldn't take much change in voting habits for this to become extremely likely.

Does this mean Democrats should feel good about this election? It's not. The result is an in-between at best, and Biden, who continues to narrowly trail Trump in polling averages, could face an almost infinite number of bad news scenarios between now and the election. The president has the same worrying set of responsibilities as he did a few months ago, at the height of the Beltway discussions about his replacement, and even at this late date, I still think the party would be better off if he stepped down. But Trump and his allies aren't expected to start booking their hotel rooms for the inauguration just yet. On the one hand, Trump could be in jail. But even if he isn't, he could once again be the losing candidate in the street, holding a small, innocent patriotic rally while Biden's Electoral College victory is certified.

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