The main parties are determined to avoid 2024 being a Brexit-themed election

Governments seeking re-election generally claim to have succeeded in keeping their promises. The logic of the 2019 Get Brexit Done election was that the battle cry of 2024 should be Got Brexit Done.

The fact that this is not the case, even though the party is led by a self-described Brexiteer prime minister and a cabinet made up largely of Leave supporters, says a lot about the direction they believe Brexit has taken.

Remainers have seen nothing to convince them that they were wrong to think Brexit was a mistake. But Boris Johnson's success in 2019 was based on his becoming Leave, helped by the then Brexit Party's decision not to contest Tory seats. Rishi Sunak's problem now is that few of those who voted for Brexit seem to think the government handled Brexit well. There are only crumbs to offer to a clumsy coalition of libertarians who want a radically smaller state, large-scale deregulation and filibusters in a free-trade world, a few trade deals with Australia and New -Zealand (and not the price of an American agreement, as Johnson advocated). former communications director Lee Cain told us Liz Truss wanted to raise the rallying cry during the 2019 elections) and uneven divergences with European regulations. For them, there is the promise of new opportunities to be seized within the framework of Brexit, but concrete ideas are rare.

There's also not much to show for Brexit voters who wanted to take control of the borders. Legal immigration has soared and small boats are starting to arrive, with conservatives promising this cohort of voters that a return to government would mean finally implementing the hoped-for deterrent against expulsions from Rwanda and reducing the cap annual legal issue of visas.

Labour wants to downplay its position on Brexit

This might appear to be an opportunity for Labour to make a mark on Brexit, but Keir Starmer is still struggling to reverse the impression from his time as Labour’s shadow Brexit secretary that he wanted to reverse the referendum result, thereby alienating those who voted for Brexit.

Labour’s offer is therefore to make Brexit work, unlike Boris Johnson’s botched Brexit deal. But the institutional route that was once offered by joining the single market and customs union is off the table, as is a return to free movement.

The Labour manifesto mentions closer cooperation on security as well as cooperation on illegal migration, but it is very short on what this new agreement might look like. It was left to Rachel Reeves to go further in an interview with The Financial Times by setting out more concrete ideas for a veterinary agreement and other possible sectoral agreements. Whether there is an appetite for such agreements within the EU and what concessions, for example on fisheries, the EU might demand in return remain hypothetical for now.

Small parties are much more outspoken about their Brexit ambitions

All other parties are critical of the Brexit status quo. The Reform Party claims it would do what the government failed to seize the opportunities of Brexit by scrapping all remaining EU laws and the Windsor framework. Of course, the Reform Party will not have to face the consequences of any of these measures since it admits that it will not form the next government. But bypassing the Tories with promises of an even harder (or cleaner) Brexit could act as a siren call for some candidates in the coming battle for the Tories' future direction if they lose, especially if they see a hemorrhaging of support for the Reform Party.

But Labour is perhaps more interested in the positions of the other smaller parties, which are particularly popular with many of its members and newly elected MPs. All want to see a much closer relationship with the EU, by joining the Single Market or the EU, like the UK or, in the case of the SNP, an independent Scotland. The manifestos of both nationalist parties focus on the damage done to the Scottish and Welsh economies by Brexit (despite the Welsh majority supporting Brexit). The Liberal Democrats list page after page of areas where they want greater cooperation with the EU, and see this improved relationship as paving the way for the UK to rejoin the Single Market, with possible EU membership in the longer term.

The place where Brexit remains a key battleground is, unsurprisingly, Northern Ireland.

Sinn Fein claims to have succeeded in reducing the damage of Brexit, and considers that Irish unity is the way to return to full membership of the EU. On the unionist side, opinions are diverse. The DUP boasts of its successes in saving the Union but promises to continue to fight against the application of European laws and the border in the Irish Sea, while the TUV makes the abandonment of the Windsor Framework the centerpiece of his campaign. The UUP, which has not been represented in recent British parliaments, is instead focused on what the UK can do to make the border less visible through deals with the EU. The cross-community Alliance party is calling for repairing relations between the UK and the EU, starting with a veterinary deal.

Parliament could move from a forum for Brexit supporters to a pressure point for a closer relationship

In the 2019-24 parliament, all candidates were pro-Brexit supporters, deploring any compromise by the government and pushing for a harder Brexit. If the polls move closer to the right, this strength will be significantly reduced after 4 July. In place, a potential Labour government would face a range of opposition forces that would criticise it for failing to build the closer relationships they see as a lever that Labour could use to fulfil its growth mission. How Labour responds could be one of the defining decisions of the next parliament.