Age and stakes favor Trump ahead of debate

WASHINGTON, DC – As the first debate of the 2024 presidential campaign approaches, about four months before Election Day, Donald Trump is viewed more positively than President Joe Biden on many issues, even though neither candidate has an overall favorable image. Part of Trump’s advantage comes from the fact that the former president receives far more positive reviews from his own loyalists than Biden does from his own party.

These results come from a June 3-23 Gallup poll that began days after Trump was convicted on 34 counts of falsifying business records in New York.

The poll finds that about twice as many Republicans are happy with the Republican Party's nomination of Trump as Democrats are happy with Biden's nomination to lead their party.

Overall, fewer than half of Americans view either candidate favorably, think either has the personality and leadership qualities a president should have, and say they would agreement with one or the other on the issues that are most important to them.

Although Biden and Trump, the two oldest major-party candidates running for president, are only three years apart in age, Americans see Biden’s advanced age as a much greater liability. Biden is also seen as too liberal by a majority of Americans, while public opinion of Trump’s ideology is mixed.

Republicans are more satisfied than Democrats with their party's candidate

Republicans (79%) are almost twice as likely as Democrats (42%) to say they are satisfied with their party's nominee. A majority of Democrats (56%) would prefer another candidate.

In the summer of 2020, when Trump and Biden first faced off, Republicans' views of Trump were similar to those they hold today. Democrats were more positive about Biden four years ago, with 56% satisfied, although they were still far less positive about him than Republicans were about Trump.

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Gallup has not regularly tracked this sentiment, but several readings help put the latest findings in context. After Hillary Clinton secured the nomination at the Democratic National Convention in 2016, 64% of Democrats said they were happy with her being their nominee. In a similar question that asked partisans if they were “satisfied” (rather than “happy”) with their party's nominee in 2012, 84 percent of Democrats were satisfied with Barack Obama, who was running for incumbent president.

On the Republican side, 45% of Republicans were happy with Trump in 2016 after the GOP convention, and 66% were happy with Mitt Romney when he became their party's presumptive nominee in 2012.

Trump's popularity is up, Biden's is down

Both Biden and Trump are viewed unfavorably by the majority of Americans, but Trump's favorability shows improvement, while Biden's favorability has worsened. Trump's favorable rating (46%) increased four percentage points since the previous reading in December and is the highest for him since April 2020. At the same time, Biden's favorable rating fell by the same margin of four points, to 37%, its lowest since 2007, when it was unknown to many Americans.

Before the 2020 election, Biden and Trump's approval ratings were no more than four points apart, and more recently, in two 2023 surveys, the two men's ratings were tied. Similarly, in May, Gallup's “scalometer” found that Biden and Trump were tied in popularity.

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Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is viewed favorably by 38% of Americans, 14 points lower than his previous score in December. Kennedy's popularity fell the most among Democrats (-26 points) and independents (-13 points) and the least among Republicans (-7 points).

Republicans have a more positive opinion of their party's candidate than Democrats: 91% of Republicans view Trump favorably and 81% of Democrats view Biden favorably. Independents view Trump and Kennedy more favorably than Biden.

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Trump edges out Biden because of his presidential personality and leadership

Fewer than half of Americans consider either Biden or Trump to have the personality and leadership qualities a president needs. The 46% of American adults who think Trump possesses these qualities includes 87% of Republicans, 43% of independents and 10% of Democrats.

Fewer Americans think Biden possesses such personality and leadership qualities, at 38%. 81% of Democrats, 35% of independents and 4% of Republicans think Biden embodies these characteristics.

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In October 2019, as Trump was running for reelection, 38% of Americans believed he had the personality and leadership qualities a president needs. At the time, public opinion was divided on whether Biden had those qualities, with 49% of Americans saying he did.

Six in ten Americans disagree with Biden on key issues

Americans are evenly split on whether they agree with Trump on the issues that matter most to them, with 49% taking each position. When it comes to their agreement with Biden’s positions on the issues that matter most to them, 37% of American adults say they agree with him, while 61% disagree.

More than nine in 10 Republicans, or 93%, agree with Trump on key issues, while 81% of Democrats agree with Biden. Independents are more aligned with Trump (46%) than Biden (34%) on some issues.

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Biden's age is a bigger handicap than Trump's

At 81, Biden is three years older than Trump, who turned 78 this month. Despite their similar ages, Americans are almost twice as likely to say Biden is too old to be president (67%) as to say that about Trump (37%). These results are consistent with previous Gallup polls showing that 31% of Americans are willing to vote for a presidential candidate over 80 and 63% are willing to vote for a candidate over 70.

Half of respondents to the June survey were asked whether each candidate was too old to be president; the other half were asked whether they were concerned that each candidate was too old to be president. The results were similar, with 59% “very concerned” about Biden’s age compared to 18% about Trump’s. Including those who are “somewhat concerned,” a total of 76% are concerned that Biden is too old for the job, while 38% are concerned about Trump.

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Biden’s age is not only a potential liability among Republicans and independents—majorities of whom think he’s too old and are very concerned about it—but also among a significant minority of Democrats. Forty-four percent of Democrats think Biden is too old, and 31% are very concerned about it.

Before Trump (70 in 2017) and Biden (78 in 2021), the oldest president was Ronald Reagan, who was 69 at the start of his presidency in 1981 and 77 when he left office in 1989.

Majority sees Biden as too liberal, fewer say Trump is too conservative

When asked to characterize the candidates' political ideology, Americans largely believe Biden is too liberal. 56% of them see him this way, 3 in 10 believe his opinions are about right and 9% consider him too conservative.

In contrast, 44% of Americans think Trump is too conservative, 38% think his views are about right, and 10% think he is too liberal.

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This is the first time Gallup has measured the public's perception of Biden's ideology, but it is the second time it has measured Trump's ideology. The first measurement was taken in 2019, roughly halfway through Trump's presidency. At the time, the public was evenly split between those who saw him as too conservative (39%) and those who saw him as about right (38%), while 17% saw him as too liberal.

Most partisans believe their presidential candidate's views are about right, but more Republicans feel that way about Trump (78%) than Democrats do about Biden (69%).

Political independents are also more likely to call Trump’s policies fair than Biden’s, at 34% and 25%, respectively. A majority of independents (56%) think Biden is too liberal, while 43% say Trump is too conservative.

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Conclusion

With both candidates well-known to Americans, the stakes are high heading into the first presidential debate of 2024, as both Biden and Trump face significant public hurdles. Biden appears to be at a greater disadvantage heading into the debate, as his approval rating is stagnant at a historically low 38% and his favorability rating has now fallen to the same level.

Americans feel less aligned with Biden than Trump on the issues they consider most important and on their political ideology. Although the candidates are close in age, Biden’s age is more of a barrier to voters than Trump’s, and the debate will be a key moment for him to prove to a large national audience that he is up to the task of being president at an advanced age.

Although Republicans are more united in their optimism about Trump than Democrats are about Biden, that may be partly due to the timing of the latest poll, which was released shortly after the conviction of Trump for serious crimes and could have served to rally his supporters. Meanwhile, the campaign trail has not been kind to Kennedy, whose popularity has plummeted over the past six months, particularly among Democrats and independents. Kennedy did not qualify for the debate.

The race is far from over, with more than four months until Election Day — including both parties' debates and national nominating conventions, which have the potential to change Americans' minds.

To stay up to date with the latest information and updates from Gallup News, follow us on X @Gallup.

Learn more about how the Gallup Poll Social Series works.

Check out the full answers to questions and trends (PDF download).

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Sources 1/ https://Google.com/ 2/ https://news.gallup.com/poll/646547/age-issues-working-trump-advantage-pre-debate.aspx The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article

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