The likely British Prime Minister charts his course towards a turbulent world

If, on July 4, Keir Starmer becomes Britain's first Labor prime minister in a decade and a half, he will face a different world from that faced by his last Labor predecessor, Gordon Brown.

In 2010, the world was still reeling from the global financial crash of 2008; there was no President Xi in China or President Putin in Russia; Donald Trump hosted The apprentice; and the word Brexit had not yet been invented.

A new Labour government will face a world of multiple, interconnected and protracted international crises, from Ukraine to Gaza, from climate change to migration. Yet, perhaps surprisingly, the dire state of the world has barely featured in the British election campaign.

This is partly the natural result of internal party competition during general election campaigns. But it is also a direct consequence of Starmer's concerted efforts during his four years as leader of the opposition Labor Party to establish his credibility with voters by following the Conservative government's position on many major issues of foreign politic.

It starts with traditional questions of defense and security. Since Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Starmer has wholeheartedly supported the rhetoric and aid provided first by Boris Johnson, then by Rishi Sunak, currently running to $3 billion ($3.8 billion) a year in military aid alone.

A Starmer administration will not bring any change to this policy of unwavering support. Similarly, on NATO and the question of the UK’s independent nuclear deterrent (Trident and its successor system), Starmer’s position is radically different from that of his predecessor as Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, who shared the Labour left’s long-standing scepticism. In April, Starmer visited the Scottish shipyard where the next generation of nuclear submarines is being built and, the same month, stressed his unwavering commitment to British deterrence.

Defense policy has become a central concern in British politics, both because of the return of war to the European continent in Ukraine, but also because cuts in public spending by Conservative governments have reduced the size of the British Army at its lowest level. since the 18th^th century.

Labour has met the Conservative government’s target of increasing UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP, although, in keeping with the caution about spending promises that characterises Starmer’s economic policy, it has not specified a target date. Yet the first year of a Labour government will see a comprehensive strategic review of Britain’s defence needs, a process that will invite a festival of lobbying for additional resources from military chiefs angry at the systematic cuts of the post-Cold War era.

Although defense policy will be marked by strong continuity, a Starmer government would seek to move away from the last 14 years in other areas. In sharp contrast to a Conservative government that first held the Brexit referendum and then adopted a radical interpretation of divorce from the EU, Starmer's speech on Europe was warm and positive.

Backed by a strong trade consensus wanting to rebuild trade and investment bridges to the EU, Starmer proposed a fresh start in post-Brexit relations. If elected, he will have an early opportunity to demonstrate his change in tone when he welcomes more than 40 European heads of state and government to the summit of the new European Political Community at Blenheim Palace on July 18.

Yet, although British public opinion has shifted towards regret over Brexit (a June survey (Observers say the negatives outweigh the positives (53% versus 15%), Starmer has ruled out any return to the bloc, its single market or its customs union. Labor is instead proposing to organize a UK-EU defense summit in early 2025 to strengthen existing cooperation on the European response to Ukraine and other security challenges.

This move will be accompanied by the hope that such a summit will become a regular bilateral forum to discuss a range of areas of mutual interest, including energy security, the UK's uncertain trade arrangements with the EU and the thorny issue of illegal immigration across the Channel.

As with all British prime ministers, ensuring proximity to the White House will be a priority when Starmer arrives at 10 Downing Street. I expect him to appear on the White House lawn before the summer recess.

Relations between Team Starmer and Team Biden are strong, but in recent months Starmer’s shadow foreign secretary, David Lammy, has also made considerable efforts to groom leading figures in the Republican foreign policy world, in case November produces a second term for Trump rather than Biden.

Starmer will support the US position on a range of common challenges, but will face strong internal pressure from his party to nuance its differences. In particular, many new Labor MPs will be extremely critical of Israel's conduct of the Gaza war, and Starmer will have to navigate divergent positions within his party, his constituents and the White House.

In relations with China, a new Labour administration will also be buffeted by the looming trade war between Washington and Beijing, facing strong US pressure to reject Chinese technology platforms, without the collective comfort of EU membership.

In other areas, the doctrine of progressive realism Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy's action plan is expected to result in significant changes to the government's priorities. Starmer, a human rights lawyer, will loudly voice his support for international organizations and international law.

It will restore British funding to UNRWA in Gaza, which was withdrawn after the October 7 terrorist attacks, and rule out a British exit from the European Convention on Human Rights. Starmer is also expected to refocus Britain's leadership in areas such as climate change and rethink international treaties governing migration flows in which Conservative prime ministers have been absent or dragged their feet.

The last Labour government (and the Labour Party) was deeply affected by Tony Blair's involvement in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. It is highly unlikely that public opinion would again support the use of British troops in a military intervention abroad beyond those required by NATO.

But a Starmer government will face a different kind of test: finding the courage, imagination and funding to equip Britain to face an evolving threat landscape that combines complex economic, security and technological dimensions in ways unimaginable 20 years ago.

Restructuring the way Britain's rather traditional and segmented bureaucracy deals with this new world will be a quiet but vital priority in the years to come.

Lord Stewart Wood is a Labour member of the House of Lords, a former foreign policy adviser to Prime Minister Gordon Brown and a senior adviser to former Labour Party leader Ed Miliband.

Edge of Europe is CEPA's online journal covering critical foreign policy issues in Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions he represents or of the Center for European Policy Analysis.