Politics
In India, Modi seems to be softening his policy on Kashmir. Why?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi struck a friendly tone during his first visit to Jammu and Kashmir since India's general elections.
He praised the region, which has been scarred by decades of violence and political impotence, for its high turnout, and promised to hold long-awaited regional elections soon. Mr Modi also promised to restore the region's statehood, which his government unilaterally revoked in 2019.
Why we wrote this
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears to be softening his decision on Kashmir, a change that could restore a sense of political agency to millions of people in the besieged region and bolster peace efforts.
The change comes as Mr. Modi faces a coalition government for the first time. His Bharatiya Janata Party has also lost ground in Jammu and Kashmir, despite efforts to suppress political dissent and discredit regional opposition parties.
Analysts say these elections have revealed the limits of the politics of fear, although many are still divided over whether Modi will keep his promises. The risk of easing pressure in Delhi is the resurgence of separatist violence, which has declined in recent years. Some nevertheless believe that legislative elections are necessary for stability.
The people of Kashmir feel that they have been deprived of their rights. They do not have the right to vote, they do not have the right to express themselves, explains Sudheendra Kulkarni, former advisor to the BJP. But unless people participate in the peace process, there will be no real peace.
The political landscape in Jammu and Kashmir remains a difficult terrain for Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his third term.
The Himalayan region has been marred by decades of violence and political impotence, including the Modi government's decision in 2019 to unilaterally downgrade Jammu and Kashmir from a state to a union territory, ruled directly by Delhi, and revoke the region's limited autonomy.
But last week, when Mr Modi visited Kashmir for the first time since India's general election, he announced that preparations for the long-awaited regional assembly elections had begun and pledged to restore Jammu and Kashmir's statehood.
Why we wrote this
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears to be softening his stance on Kashmir, a shift that could restore a sense of political autonomy to millions of people in the embattled region and bolster peace efforts.
You have raised the flag of democracy and I have come to thank you, he said at a rally at an auditorium in Srinagar, referring to the high turnout in the last elections.
The trip marked a radical change in tone towards Kashmir and follows other promising developments, including the first Pakistani delegation visit the valley in five years. Although experts are divided on whether Mr. Modi will keep his promises, the changes raise hopes for some semblance of political action and stability in Kashmir.
Noor Ahmad Baba, a political analyst, attributes the change to the ruling party's electoral losses, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir.
In Kashmir, the kind of stories that [Indias central government] The companies that the companies wanted to sell after 2019 did not have an impact on the ground, he said. The political forces supported by the government were completely rejected by the people.
India's New Political Dynamics
The Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost its absolute majority in Parliament in the last elections. In Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP won two seats but polled only 24.3 per cent of the vote, half its share in the previous elections. It did not field any candidate in the three parliamentary constituencies in the Kashmir Valley. In these constituencies, the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) won two seats, defeating the opposition's absolute majority of votes. BJP proxies and other regional candidates and former lawmaker Abdul Rashid Sheikh released the third from prison.
Mr Sheikh's victory is seen as a protest against the massive crackdown on political dissent in Kashmir, during which thousands have been jailed and press freedoms restricted. In the past, BJP leaders have also tried to discredit local political parties, accusing them of corruption and nepotism.
But since the last elections, Tanvir Sadiq, spokesperson for the JKNC, says the BJP seems to have relaxed this practice. And implementing future crackdowns will be even more difficult now, given the presence of an alliance government in Delhi, he adds.
All this bodes well for Kashmiris who hope for greater autonomy.
An election, which previously seemed highly unlikely, now appears to be on the horizon, Mr. Sadiq says.
Indeed, analysts say the election results reveal the limits of fear-based power and underscore the need for political engagement and dialogue.
However, without a specific date, elections are not guaranteed.
A path to peace?
The current position of central government, caught between maintaining control and meeting demands for democratic processes, is a delicate balancing act.
Radha Kumar, author of The Republic Relearnt: Renewing Indian Democracy (1947-2024), explains that after revoking Kashmir’s limited autonomy in 2019 and launching a widespread crackdown without any consultation, the government thought it was creating a compliant population. Instead, it created a security state mentality governed by fear.
The risk of a relaxation of forces is the resurgence of separatist violence, which has declined in recent years.
They are in a dilemma, says Dr Kumar, who was part of a government-appointed panel of interlocutors on Kashmir in 2010. You cannot prolong the security state indefinitely, so it is between the devil and the deep sea.
For Lt. Gen. (retd.) Syed Ata Hasnain, a former corps commander in Kashmir, the security situation is key to understanding the BJP’s motivations in the valley. The new Modi government has not softened its stance on local separatists or radical ideologues, he says in an email, but it is recalibrating its approach to the region in the hopes of one day entering the political mainstream in Kashmir.
His goal will be to form a government of his own, he said. This will require a calibrated political approach without sacrificing anything in terms of security.
Retired Air Vice Marshal Kapil Kak says it is too early to say whether Mr Modi will adopt a more moderate stance on Kashmir. But for now, if national elections are held, it is reasonable to believe that the ruling regime will be defeated in the Valley and, to some extent, in Jammu, he says.
This is a reality that Mr. Modi will have to take into account when considering a policy for a third term in Kashmir.
For Sudheendra Kulkarni, a former adviser to the Prime Minister during the BJP government from 1999 to 2004, the choice is clear.
The people of Kashmir feel disenfranchised. That they have no vote, they have no voice and they are being ruled from Delhi, he said. Today, unless the people participate in the peace process, there will be no real peace.
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Sources 2/ https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-South-Central/2024/0627/After-tumultuous-India-election-Modi-promises-Kashmir-more-autonomy The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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