Analysis: China finally sets dates for reform-focused plenum, no radical changes expected under President Xi

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In announcing on April 30 that the third plenum would be held in July, the Politburo also noted that the party meeting would mainly study issues relating to the overall deepening of reforms and the advancement of China's modernization.

The April 30 meeting did not specify the plenum's agenda, but emphasized the adoption of proactive fiscal policies, the use of foreign capital and the development of “new productive forces of quality” to mitigate risks in critical areas amid intense global competition, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported.

The phrase “new quality productive forces,” or xin zhi sheng chan li in Chinese, was coined by Xi last September, during an inspection and research trip to China’s northeastern rust belt. At the time, state media translated it as “new productive forces,” with the word “quality” added only in recent months.

Analysts believe the term primarily refers to innovation in advanced sectors such as artificial intelligence and big data. China has embarked on a high-tech move to boost an economy weighed down by a prolonged housing downturn, uneven consumer spending and de-risking strategies from superpower rival the United States.

The clearest clues so far about the agenda of the third plenum emerged on Wednesday, June 26, through a high-profile commentary published in the People's Daily, the CCP's official newspaper. The article was written by Ren Zhongping, a byline that has reportedly been used by the People's Daily to set the official tone on major policies and current events.

According to the article, which made headlines, attention will be paid to “reform of the economic system”, which includes “maintaining and developing the basic economic system” and “establishing an economic high-level socialist market by 2035.

President Xi had already hinted at his goals in late May, during a visit to the city of Jinan in eastern Shandong province, where he chaired a meeting with business representatives and academics.

We must resolutely eliminate ideological concepts and institutional loopholes that hinder the advancement of modernization with Chinese characteristics, China's top leader said on May 23, reported by the SCMP.

We need to take both a goal-oriented and problem-oriented approach to solving problems by focusing on institutional barriers and deep-rooted structural problems.

According to local media, topics such as power system reform, productivity improvement and land market reforms were discussed.

While acknowledging the important points raised at the Shandong meeting, LKYSPP Associate Professor Wu is skeptical about whether the announcements made at the third plenum will be enough to reverse the current economic crisis.

China's policy tools to restore the economy to its previous status are very limited, he said, citing factors such as strained China-U.S. relations.

He added that many reforms have already been launched by Beijing since it abruptly lifted its strict zero-Covid policy in early 2023. It has already been a year and a half since the Chinese economy was still in decline.

A new Party watchdog to oversee China's 400 trillion yuan in banking, insurance and securities assets was created last year as part of a broader economic overhaul.

Most recently, in mid-May this year, China unveiled sweeping measures to shore up its ailing property market – cutting minimum mortgage rates and down payments and ordering local governments to buy up unsold homes.

Although Mr Thomas of the Asia Society Policy Institute is sceptical about the ability of the third plenum to produce transformative policy changes, he suggests there could still be some positive developments.

This could yet hold some positive surprises in response to China's economic woes, as the reversal of zero-Covid policies suggests Xi can change his mind when it is in his political interest.