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Growth, inflation, jobs: comparison of the economic records of Biden and Trump | Economy

 


The first debate of the 2024 campaign between US President Joe Biden and former US President Donald Trump has refocused attention on their respective economic records in office.

In Thursday's face-off, the candidates clashed over the economy, with Biden taking credit for overseeing the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and Trump claiming to have presided over the greatest economy in our nation's history.

Both Biden and Trump can boast strong performances in some areas of the economy, but opinion polls consistently show that voters have more confidence in Republicans' ability to handle economic issues and the cost of living.

In an ABC News/Ipsos poll released last month, 46% of respondents said they trusted Trump on the economy, compared to 32% for Biden.

On inflation, Trump is favored over the Democrat by 44 to 30 percent.

Polls also show that the vast majority of Americans see the economy as their top priority, meaning Biden's reelection hopes are likely to live or die on his ability to sell a positive economic message.

Here are Trump and Biden's economic results compared in four key areas.

Economic growth

Both the Biden and Trump administrations experienced periods of robust growth.

Since Biden's inauguration, gross domestic product (GDP) has grown by 8.4% after adjusting for inflation.

Under Trump, GDP grew by 6.8%, but that figure includes the drop in economic activity that occurred during the first year of the pandemic.

Outside of 2020, Biden comes in slightly ahead, with an annualized growth rate of about 2.9%, compared to just under 2.7% for Trump.

Inflation

Biden's term has seen much higher inflation than Trump's, even though many factors driving high prices, such as COVID-related supply chain disruptions, were beyond his control.

Since Biden took office, prices have increased by more than 19%.

The average price of a gallon (3.8 liters) of gasoline increased from $2.33 to $3.76 between January 2021 and May of this year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The price of a loaf of bread increased from $1.55 to $1.97, while the price of a dozen eggs increased from $1.47 to $2.70.

At a similar point under the Trump presidency, prices had risen only about 5 percent.

Even though inflation has fallen sharply since peaking at 9.1% in mid-2022, it remains stubbornly high.

Last month, the consumer price index came in at 3.3%, well above the U.S. Federal Reserve's target of around 2%.

Jobs

Both Biden and Trump can claim to have presided over strong labor markets.

Unemployment fell to a 53-year low of 3.4 percent in January last year and has remained below 4 percent for all but one month since then.

Excluding 2020, Trump also experienced a period of low unemployment, with the unemployment rate hitting a low of 3.5% in late 2019.

Under Biden, the economy has added about 15.7 million jobs.

By contrast, Trump left office with about three million fewer jobs, although that figure was skewed by the pandemic.

However, even before the pandemic, job creation grew at a slower pace under the Trump administration than under Biden.

Wages

While Biden and Trump have both presided over solid wage growth on paper, American workers have seen their incomes decline in real terms under Biden due to inflation.

Under Trump, wage growth has remained above inflation, allowing for modest increases in workers' incomes.

From March 2021, consumer prices began to diverge from profits, before the trend reversed in early 2023.

The result is that real median weekly earnings fell 2.14% between the start of Biden’s term and the first quarter of 2024, according to a FactCheck.org analysis citing data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The good news for American workers is that wages have started to rise again.

In May, real wages rose 0.5% from a year earlier, although they have not yet returned to levels seen at the start of Biden's term.

Although real wage growth has turned slightly positive in recent months, the level of real wages is still lower than they were at the start of the inflation surge we began to see in the first quarter of 2021, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta said in an analysis Thursday.

Simply put, real wages have not fully caught up with the sudden burst of inflation.

Sources

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2/ https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/6/28/gdp-inflation-jobs-biden-and-trumps-economic-records-compared

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