Politics
Sara Hsu on China's Economic Policy Under Xi Jinping – The Diplomat
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Under Xi Jinping, China's economic approach has been and likely will be focused on state-led innovation and development.
During July, the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the top governing body of China's ruling party, will meet for its highly anticipated third plenum. Since the beginning of the era of reform and opening-up, each third plenum of the Central Committee has long set the policy direction of China's economy. However, this iteration will run well behind the usual schedule. Traditionally, the third plenum meets a year after the CPC National Party Congress, last held in October 2022. As a result, the third plenum was scheduled for October or November 2023. Instead, it was delayed until July 2024.
The nine-month gap between the planned schedule and the actual convening of the plenum sparked widespread speculation about the debates and disagreements over economic policy taking place within the CCP's black box. To help set the scene, The Diplomats' Shannon Tiezzi interviewed Sara Hsu, an associate professor at the University of Tennessee at Knoxville and an expert on supply chains, fintech and China's economic development, about China's economic trajectory. China since the 20th National Party Congress in 2017. fall 2022.
Hsu explained that China's economy faces two equally daunting challenges: internal structural problems and a hostile external environment. The economic policies supported by the Chinese government are seen by the United States in particular as a threat to national security, she said. …This constitutes an obstacle to growth at least as great as China's internal problems.
The Chinese government and the CCP claim that the economy is not in major difficulties, while many outside analysts are convinced that there are significant structural deficits that need to be urgently addressed. How do you assess the current health of the Chinese economy?
Not only does the Chinese economy suffer from structural deficits that need to be addressed, it also faces an economic ideological conflict with the West that will prevent the growth path led by the Chinese government from succeeding.
Structural deficits are linked to China's slowing real estate growth, an aging population, excessive local government debt, and youth unemployment. These issues have been discussed and in the works for years. However, it is China's overall economic strategy that reflects a contrasting position with the West.
A major problem is that just as China promotes areas such as electric vehicles, lithium batteries and solar cells, the West sees the Chinese government's support for these industries as a threat and has increased tariffs Consequently. Current economic policy supported by the Chinese government is particularly viewed by the United States as a threat to national security, as many of China's recent policy measures have supported innovative industries. This has led to major technological improvements as well as overcapacity in certain areas.
The United States is concerned that China is flooding the American market with innovative products that could pose a security risk. This is at least as much of an obstacle to growth as China's internal problems.
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